Ravens 2022 Salary Cap Outlook

Believe it or not, the 2022 league year begins in just three months.

Free agency, numerous roster moves, and peak draft season goes into effect on March 16, 2022 at 4 p.m. ET.

As in recent years, typical transactions include big-money signings of key players to teams with the most cap space. Teams like the Ravens, who are often in playoff contention despite limited cap room don’t usually make moves like that right away. They’re more measured in their approach, waiting for the market to settle before making bids to bring in new players.

When looking at a new league year, there are three main factors to consider: key free agents, projected cap space, and what players you can sign with that money.

Key free agents

While Lamar Jackson is under contract thru the 2022 season, he’ll be very much the top priority for the Ravens this coming off season. He’s set to make $23 million next year. That’s a lot of money, no question, but it’s about 60% of what he’s earned. Anywhere from $38-45 million per year is a probable average annual value for Jackson’s next contract, pending how this year finishes.

For reference, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the league’s highest-paid player. His 12-year, $450 million contract pays him $7.4 million in 2021. While Jackson isn’t at that level, he’s made enough progress to garner consideration for a comparable deal.

Perhaps a reason the Ravens haven’t renewed Jackson yet is because of their significant commitments to Ronnie Stanley (5 years, $98.75M) and Marlon Humphrey (5 years, $97.5M) in October of 2020. While a team can subdue the cap number of a big contract for a year or two, that’s about it. Therefore, it makes sense for them to wait until 2022 to offer Jackson a mega deal.

Projected cap space

The NFL announced Sunday that the projected 2022 salary cap will be set at $208 million—a 14 percent increase from this year. According to Over the Cap, Baltimore should have $26,532,682 million in cap space heading into next year. Subtracting an approximation for their rookie class (using their 2021 rookie cap pool number of $2,142,060 million), the Ravens should have about $24.4 million to work with in 2022, before making any cuts.

Here some potential cuts and the space those moves will create:

• OT Alejandro Villanueva, $6 million
• LB Jaylon Ferguson, $965,000
• WR Miles Boykin, $965,000
• RB Justice Hill, $965,000
• CB Iman Marshall, $825,000
• DL Xavier Kelly, $824,332

Total savings: $10,554,332

Combine those potential savings with the Ravens projected cap space (minus money allotted for their rookie class), and their total 2022 cap room could be approximately $35 million.

Players to sign

The problem with having such a good team is that when free agency comes around, you must make a lot of hard decisions. Baltimore has 19 players on their roster that will become unrestricted free agents when the new league year begins this March–eleven of which are currently starters.

Key players like Bradley Bozeman, DeShon Elliott, Patrick Ricard, and Calais Campbell, among others, have earned big pay days. My guess is they all want to stay, and the Ravens would like to keep them.

Can the Ravens afford them, though? That’s the real question.

Regarding the other types of free agents (street, restricted, exclusive rights), there are a few that have started this year that I’m sure the Ravens would love to bring back next year.

Restricted

OT Patrick Mekari

CB Chris Westry

Restricted free agents receive a 1st, 2nd, or original round tender. Along with varying monetary value the new team would pay that player for a 1-year deal, that team would have to give the Ravens the draft pick the Ravens assign to that player. If an original round tender is assigned, that draft pick would be from the same round in which that player was originally drafted. There are two other designations for restricted free agents (right of first refusal, upgraded), but these three are the most common.

Given Baltimore’s numerous injuries to both positions and these players are, it’s likely they make a play to keep both Mekari and Westry.

Exclusive Rights

QB Tyler Huntley

LS Nick Moore

Exclusive rights free agents are players whose contract has expired and have less than three accrued seasons in the NFL. If the Ravens offer these players a 1-year deal, that player cannot sign with another club.

Both Huntley and Moore, while not well known across the league, are valuable to the Ravens. Retaining them would limit turnover and retain camaraderie.

Free agents from other teams

If the Ravens choose to offer a contract to a player that previously played for another team, there are plenty of enticing options. Finding one that fits their cap is the challenge.

Tight end David Njoku (Cleveland), right guard Alex Cappa (Tampa Bay), and linebacker Rashaan Evans are players that have played at a high level and that have earned less than $3 million on average per year throughout their current contract.

The one free agent the Ravens should pursue the most, in my opinion, is Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson. Not only have their defensive backs struggled mightily to stay healthy, but Jackson is a quickly ascending player whose current cap number is only $3.384 million.

Having posted 24 interceptions and 47 passes defensed in 58 career games, Jackson, the former Maryland Terrapin, is in line to sign a deal worth at least $10 million per season.

Can the Ravens afford that? Sure. Do they need a good, young corner? Absolutely. Would signing a top free agent preserve a draft pick or two? It’s very likely.

Personnel evaluation is always a balancing act. By allocating a solid portion of your cap space to one player, you’re restricting your ability to retain veterans that you’ve already seen perform in your system.

I don’t know if any general manager is every exactly comfortable with their roster. Perhaps the tiebreaker for Eric DeCosta and the Ravens is how close they are to a Super Bowl. Select teams that are closing in on a championship can afford to take a risk on spending big money to acquire a key contributor.

Bottom line: it’s likely the Ravens can sign most of their key unrestricted free agents, one new free agent, their entire 2022 rookie class, and have a few million dollars left over to sign a veteran or two after the draft.

As always, it’ll be tight, but Pat Moriarty and the Ravens have been preparing for this free agent class for years now. They’re prepared. Don’t panic when it seems like time is running out, or that the Ravens aren’t very active. Baltimore has always exercised patience, and that patience has rewarded them handsomely.