Ravens Get Win Number One; Return Home To Face Buffalo In Week 4

Despite being outscored 19-0 by the Cowboys in the 4th Quarter, the Ravens are leaving Dallas having secured their first win here in the 2024 season.

The Ravens raced out to a 28-6 lead in Dallas, before multiple missteps gave the Cowboys an opportunity to steal the game.

Given the Ravens propensity for giving up 4th Quarter leads over the last few seasons (including last weekend vs. Vegas); the pitchforks were coming out before Lamar Jackson was able to run out the clock.

Now 1-2 overall, the Ravens will host the Buffalo Bills next Sunday in Baltimore.

The Bills are currently 2-0, and will face Jacksonville tomorrow night in Buffalo.

The Bottomline 

Greater than any other narrative, the bottomline from today is that the Ravens won.

Starting 0-2 was a hole to dig out of.
Had the Ravens started 0-3, the odds would have indicated their ’24 season was over before the calendar turned to October.

What Happened Today? What Are The Takeaways?

The Ravens had back-to-back 70 yard TD scoring drives to begin their day.
Giving their own strengths, and knowing the Cowboys struggle to stop the rush, the Ravens committed to ground and pound.
Every Offensive Lineman everywhere likes to run block.
The maligned Ravens O-Line (particularly the right side), put forth a quality effort.
The Ravens finished with 456 total yards, including 274 yards rushing.

Derrick Henry and Jackson combined for 39 carries, 238 yards, and 3 rushing TD’s.
Jackson only had 15 passing attempts.

Leading 28-6, Justin Tucker missed a 46 yard FG attempt with 10:41.
This was Tucker’s third missed FG of the year, and the first under 50 yards.
Dallas was able to quickly go down the field, and scored their first TD of the game with 8:53 left.
Missing the 2 point conversion, the score was 28-12.

The Cowboys converted an onsides kick, with Zay Flowers not coming up with the squib.
Dallas went 56 yards in under 2 minutes and scored again, making it 28-18 with 7:07 left.
The Cowboys again missed a 2 point conversion.

Baltimore would go 3 and out on the successive drive, with Jackson missing an open Mark Andrews on 3rd and 3.

Starting at their 9, Dallas put together an 11 play, 89 yard drive for another TD with 2:53 left in the game.
During that drive, Odafe Oweh was called for roughing the passer.  FOX Sports Rules Expert Mike Pereira stated on the telecast he disagreed with the call.
The drive was capped with Dax Prescott finding KaVonte Turpin for 16 yards on 3rd and 10.

The Ravens defense was clearly gassed at this point, and it seemed apparent that the Ravens would either be going to OT, or losing if Dallas got the ball back.

Facing 3rd and 6 from the Ravens 25, Jackson found Flowers for 9 yards with 2:18 left.
On 2nd and 9 from the Ravens 35, Jackson went for 10 yards on the first play after the 2 minute warning.
With Dallas out of any remaining timeouts, Baltimore was able to take a knee and run out the clock.

Other Notes?

• It was one of those game where if you were just looking at the box score you wouldn’t necessarily realize how impactful Jackson was.
  Jackson was largely masterful. Tucker missing his FG attempt, Flowers not coming up with the onsides, and the Defense getting tired is not on him.
• Frankly, while Coach Harbaugh has been at the helm of all of the 4th Quarter collapses the last few years; Dallas’ comeback effort today was not on him either.
  If Tucker makes his FG, and Flowers comes up with the onside; the game never gets close. Harbaugh is the constant with the collapses and the responsibility is ultimately his for the Ravens leading the league in such cases since 21. But unfairly blaming Dallas’ comeback effort on him, takes away from the larger discussion of why aren’t the Ravens putting those games away.
• Really nice seeing the O-Line have some success. Yes, the Cowboys are poor against the run, but the O-line did their job. They were regularly opening running lanes, and pushing back Dallas at the line of scrimmage.
• Being able to control a game (at-least large swaths of a game) without needing the passing attack was a good sign. Some might pick at the lack of production in the passing game, but clearly that was by design, not because they couldn’t.
• They didn’t finish, but I thought the defense played well for 3 Quarters. Tom Brady pointed out that the Secondary wasn’t giving the cushion they gave Vegas. They moved up, they pressed, they were more disruptive. I thought Kyle Hamilton had has best game of the year so far, being used more often around the LOS. Another couple of sacks for Kyle Van Noy. Prescott did end up completing 28 passes (51 attempts), but the Ravens did largely minimize CeeDee Lamb (4 catches, 67 yards).  Trenton Simpson had his best day so far, and was active.
• Because they didn’t finish, there was a lot of finger pointing in our game thread at the Secondary.  I continue to think it’s a highly talented Secondary, because it is. Hamilton, Brandon Stephens, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams, Nate Wiggins (who caused the fumble early in the game with the punchout); is a strong group.  There has to be consistent pass rush in-front of them, or it doesn’t matter how good the Secondary is.
• Is it mental with Tucker at this point? Is he in his head?
• Good things happen when Justice Hill gets touches.  I liked that Rashod Bateman had 4 of the 15 targets.
• The Ravens were creative in how they got Henry the ball, but most importantly they got him working downhill. On short yardage, I’m not a big fan of giving him the pitch multiple yards behind the LOS. I know you want him to build up speed, but don’t give defenders a chance to get in the backfield. Just immediately put the ball in his hands, and let him fall forward.
• The Ravens had 13 penalties for 105 yards.
• I’m still not sure what happened with Dallas’ play in the endzone. Sure seemed like it should have been a Safety.

 

Coming Home For Buffalo Sunday Night

As mentioned at the top, the Bills are 2-0, and hosting Jacksonville tomorrow.

In their two wins, they beat Arizona 34-28, and won at Miami 31-10.

The Bills have a 68.2% chance of beating Jacksonville according to ESPN’s Match-up Predictor.

In our AFC East quick hits before training camp, I said about the Bills:

My perception is that people have largely written the Bills off as a legitimate contender; I think that’s a mistake. Josh Allen’s 18 picks last were excessive, but I see him as the 2020s version of ’90s Brett Farve. He’s a gunslinger. Sometimes he gets himself in trouble because he believes he can make every play, vs. taking an easier available checkdown; but he’s also one of the limited handful of guys who are true difference makers throughout the game. It’s Year 3 for RB James Cook. Cook is coming off a 1,100 yard season, where he averaged 4.7 yards per carry. Behind Cook is Rookie 4th RB Ray Davis, who spent his Senior year at Kentucky. He’s a bowling ball, and if he’s shows capable of blocking – look for him to share carries with Cook. Rookie WR Keon Coleman fell to the 2nd round in the draft. If Allen and Coleman develop an early rapport, the rookie could be in for a big year. It does feel like Coleman has to be immediately productive for this offense to really click. Love the TE combo of Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox.  Maybe most importantly for the offense, the entire O-Line is back in-tact.  Defensively, I like the Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and AJ Epenesa group up-front. Can Von Miller come back and make a difference on 3rd down? A healthy Matt Milano will help in the middle.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Milano tore his biceps in camp, and is out indefinitely.
2nd Team All-Pro CB Taron Johnson is out tomorrow with a forearm. Will he be able to play vs. the Ravens?

Cook enters tomorrow with 149 yards on the ground, and 2 TD’s.
2022 5th round WR Khalil Shakir leads the Bills with 8 catches, 96 yards, and 1 score.

Rousseau has 3 sacks, and Von Miller has 2.
Rookie CB Ja’Marcus Ingram has 2 picks.

This game vs. the Bills will be another prime-time game for the Ravens, as it will be on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

ESPN’s predictor is currently giving the Ravens a 47.5% chance of winning.

It looks like the early lines have the Ravens as 1.5 point favorites.

These teams last faced each other in Week 4 of the 2022 season, with the Bills beating the Ravens 23-20 in Baltimore.
That was a game where the Ravens held a 20-10 halftime lead.

If the Ravens can get the head-to-head win against a quality conference opponent, they’ll be back to .500 at 2-2 and feeling good about themselves as they trip to Cincinnati for an important divisional game.
If the Ravens can’t build off of today’s win at Dallas, they’d be staring at a 1-3 record overall, including 0-2 at home, with that Bengals game looming.

Every game in the NFL is important, but this feels like another statement game.
The Ravens couldn’t afford to fall to 0-3 today.
The Ravens can’t afford to fall to 0-2 at home next Sunday.

It’s going to be a short week for the Bills.
Buffalo’s rush defense figures to be better than Dallas’, but I think the focus should be the same for the Ravens.
Run, run, and run some more. Make the Bills come up and commit to slowing you, and then beat them with play action.