At least from an individual standpoint, the blueprint for a successful 2022 seemed clear.
Lamar Jackson, a unanimous MVP in just his second season in the NFL, had just entered the final year of his rookie contract. He and his team, the Baltimore Ravens, had yet to come to terms on an extension that once seemed inevitable. But while the lack of a new deal caused significant consternation in some circles, both player and team left plenty of potential to work out the details down the line.
For Jackson’s part, the situation didn’t seem so concerning. Any player without long-term contractual guarantees accepts a certain amount of risk by taking the field, but quarterbacks largely seem insulated from the worst outcomes. Dak Prescott, a franchise signal-caller who went multiple years without securing a market-rate veteran extension, landed one just months after suffering a season-ending compound fracture and dislocation of his ankle. This past offseason, Deshaun Watson managed to land the largest fully guaranteed contract in league history while facing a multitude of credible civil claims for sexual misconduct.
By comparison, Jackson had a much brighter outlook. Even after his MVP campaign, Jackson continued to deliver big numbers and wins for the Ravens. He became the first quarterback ever to reach 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back years. He likely would have extended the streak in 2021 if not for an ankle injury sidelining him for the final four games of the season. As a passer, Jackson’s volume and efficiency have yet to match his breakthrough 2019 season but remain considerable, particularly his touchdown percentage.
And, by all accounts, Jackson had all the off-field green flags a franchise could want. His teammates express nothing but respect and admiration for him as a player and person and, outside of a minor lawsuit for unauthorized use of some photographs, Jackson has no known legal or reputational issues.
All considered, these dynamics reinforced the notion that Jackson and the Ravens would hammer out an extension at some point. Franchise quarterbacks don’t grow on trees and have a disproportionate impact on a team’s success. Baltimore, seeing what Jackson had already delivered and his potential for even greater achievements, had little reason not to get a deal completed. Jackson’s choice to represent himself in negotiations might complicate the matter at times, but the rest is just details.
Then came the 2022 season, Jackson’s contract year from hell.
Trouble arrived well before Week 1. Lead running back J.K. Dobbins had a slower-than-expected recovery from 2021’s ACL tear, putting his status for the season opener in doubt. This followed a social-media back-and-fourth between Dobbins and NFL Network reporter Ian Rapoport over the severity of the injury and when the former second-round pick might see the field.
In the end, Dobbins would miss the opener and the majority of the season, as subsequent knee issues limited the running back to just four games in 2022. A date for his return remains unclear at this time.
Once the regular season arrived, more hits came. Rashod Bateman, a first-round selection from a year ago who has flashed alpha-receiver potential, landed on injured reserve following a foot injury that required surgery. Bateman’s departure removed a key element to the offense and left the receiving corps with role players Devin Duvernay, journeyman Demarcus Robinson, and little else. The situation has deteriorated to such a degree that 36-year-old DeSean Jackson has become a key piece of the passing game.
All of which put a substantial additional burden on the shoulders of Jackson, already weighed down by the pressures of the position and the lack of contractual clarity beyond this season. Eventually, all that weight came down on Jackson at once, with the quarterback suffering a PCL strain that could potentially sideline him through Christmas.
The situation looks uncannily similar to the one the Ravens and Jackson found themselves in a year ago. At the moment, the team holds the slightest of leads over the charging Cincinnati Bengals by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker. But if Baltimore stumbles over the next few weeks, 2021’s first-to-worst tumble down the AFC North standings could repeat itself. At the very least, nobody at 1 Winning Dr. should just assume a playoff berth will materialize.
On paper, another late-season nosedive would hurt all parties involved, not least of which the quarterback looking for a multiyear extension. However, given the market demands and full context of those performances, Jackson might actually come out of this with as much or more leverage than before.
While Jackson presumably would prefer to play every game, his absence has highlighted the limitations of the Ravens with someone else under center. The team lost every game it played without Jackson last year despite receiving commendable performances from Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson. If Baltimore suffers a similar fate in 2022 while Jackson sits, his value to the team will offset any concerns about his health that might come out of this season.
And while Jackson won’t actually reach the open market — he will receive the franchise tag if the two sides don’t agree to a long-term extension prior to the deadline — the price for a top-shelf quarterback will only increase the longer the process takes. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert become eligible for an extension this offseason and have each earned a market-setting deal. Tom Brady could somehow get another bite at the apple despite starting his NFL career during the Clinton administration. Even Jalen Hurts could end up with a lucrative contract in the not-too-distant future.
Theoretically, the Ravens could hit the reset button and leverage Jackson’s value for a random on the trade market, but no franchise in modern history has gone this route with an MVP quarterback just coming off a rookie contract. It doesn’t seem likely Baltimore will become the first either.
So while just about everything that could go wrong has for Jackson and the Ravens in 2022, those misfortunes shouldn’t derail his quest for a major extension. One way or another, he will still receive his well-deserved payday.
Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He has bylines at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other outlets.