Ravens: Looking At The Cap

Well, I’m sorry Ravens fans, that didn’t work out as you hoped. But let’s be glass half full people because there is so much to look forward to and I, even as a non-Ravens die-hard, but a fan of how the organization is run, am incredibly excited for what 2020 might look like.

With Marcus Peters’ new contract now on the books at Over The Cap, we have the Ravens at a projected $33.8 million in cap space prior a rookie pool that is just under $8 million, so they’ll have about $25.8 million in free cap space to spend.

Baltimore has their regular allotment of picks minus a sixth round pick, which they traded with Jermaine Eluemunor to the Patriots for a fourth in return to add up to a total of four fourth round picks in 2020.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Lamar Jackson’s contract can’t be re-negotiated or extended until after the 2020 season, which means a potential big cap hit from the QB isn’t coming this year. Instead, it might come in 2021, which is a year where the Ravens have just $103 million committed to players currently with much of this team’s core already locked into contracts.

As stated in the Marcus Peters Extension article I wrote a couple weeks ago, there are ways to increase this cap space. Ronnie Stanley is entering the fifth-year of his rookie contract, so an extension could potentially lower that and create a little bit of space.

Chuck Clark performed well when he replaced Tony Jefferson, while releasing Jefferson would clear $7 million in cap space.

Brandon Carr has a $7 million cap hit with just $1 million in dead money. Marshal Yanda was PFF’s fourth highest graded guard and will be entering the final year of his contract in 2020. I previously stated he might be someone the team could extend to create some cap space, despite his age of 36 due to his level of performance, but he thought 2018 might be his last season, so we still don’t know if 2019 will actually be his last season. Either way, the interior of the offensive line should be addressed in the draft, maybe with one of those fourth round picks. If he retires, I’d target something on the interior with a second, especially with Skura due to be an unrestricted free agent after 2020.

Let’s say they release the soon to be 34-year old Carr, who played well, but would be easily replaceable. That puts them up to $31.8 million. More could be made with the moves I discussed, or others, great organizations seem to find new creative ways to find cap space every year.

Baltimore made it clear throughout the season that there were few holes, but one hole was exposed against the Titans in the lack of wide receiver production on the roster. Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, and Miles Boykin just aren’t enough. It was a weird loss though, so there’s a lot I wouldn’t panic about. Even in the loss, the offense put up over 500-yards, yet scored only one touchdown. It was a weird, ugly game that played into the Titans strategy, but that illuminated some issues with the roster.

A Jackson pass, tipped by Mark Andrews, landed in Kevin Byard’s hands, resulting in a 31-yard return that set up a 12-yard touchdown pass to Jonnu Smith to put the Titans up 7-0. And in that moment, something happened that hadn’t happened since the Week 4 loss to the Browns, the Ravens were down.

On the next drive, John Harbaugh and the staff made the right decision to run on fourth-and-one, but the run by Jackson was stuffed. On the very next play, Ryan Tannehill completed a 45-yard touchdown to Kalif Raymond that put the Titans up 14-0.

Jackson threw for 365 yards, but it was on 59 attempts with him completing only 52.5% of them for 6.2 yards per attempt. He’d add another interception late in the third with the ball on the Titans 31, down 28-6. Marquise Brown had 7 catches for 126 yards, Snead had 6 for 56, but the passing game wasn’t explosive enough. It wasn’t enough to overcome that 14-point deficit.

Harbaugh made a lot of the right decisions too, which just didn’t work out. Down 14-6 on the first drive of the second half, against fourth-and-one on the Titans 18, Jackson went up the middle for no gain and the Titans got the ball back. On the Titans ensuing six play drive, Derrick Henry ran four times for 78 yards before his three-yard jump pass touchdown to Corey Davis. The score was 21-6 with 6:54 left in the third and, with the way the game was playing out and Henry’s ability to run out the clock, the game essentially felt out of reach. You know the story, I don’t need to get deeper into it.

I was as stunned as anyone, the most stunning result of the NFL season. I felt like some guy with some Oklahoma twang on his lips on the news after a tornado ran through his town, “it all happened so fast.”

This team doesn’t need much, Jackson will continue to grow, Brown has the kind of speed and talent that might translate into him being the kind of player his cousin was before he mentally jumped the shark. While the rushing offense was the best in NFL history at 206 yards per game, the passing offense needs to make the jump, and an addition at wide receiver would be the best way to do that.

First, who does the team need to retain that’s a free agent. Defensive tackle Michael Pierce seems like someone Baltimore will want to retain. His PFF grade in 2018 was 91, but dropped to 69.1 this year, which might move his market down closer to $8 to $10 million per year.

Matthew Judon keeps getting better each year and is definitely a player the team will want to retain, but he’s not in the upper echelon of edge rushers, which will make him affordable. He finished the season with a value of $11 million to the Ravens according to Over The Cap’s new valuation tool, which is a part of the premium content of our site. My first instinct was that he’d be a $12 million per year type of player, so let’s stick with that.

Together, those two players are worth about $20 million per year.

Center Matt Skura is a restricted free agent, so as an undrafted free agent, an RFA original round tender would be worth a 7^th round pick, meaning that a team would just have to give up a 7^th rounder to sign him. To the Ravens, he would cost $2,144,000, but if they put a second round tender, it’d cost $3,278,000. I think I’d be more comfortable with the second round tender if I was Baltimore as another team will be less likely to give up a second for a center.

Running back Gus Edwards is an exclusive rights free agent, which means he can only sign with the Ravens and only for the league minimum for an NFL player with two accrued seasons. In Edwards case, this means he would make $660,000.

Add in Skura and Edwards, the Ravens are spending about $24 million to these four players they want to retain. Anthony Levine might cost another $2 million, so let’s bring it to $26 million if they keep him.

This leaves just under $6 million to spend in free agency if things play out this way.

Of course, do you want to retain Pierce and Judon? Or do you want to spend that $20 million in APY for a Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue, or Shaq Barrett? Do you want to have an expensive cornerback, safety, and pass rusher with escalating expenses coming at left tackle and quarterback?

Pro Football Focus has edge rusher as the biggest need as the Ravens were their 27^th rated pass rush, so I don’t think Judon has put himself in a position where he’s worth the $12 million expense considering what they need. Pierce has never been a great pass rusher, so again, not a necessity. If I’m Baltimore, I’d allocate those resources to a better pass rusher, rather than keep both of those players.

As I said, there’s about $6 million if you consider them at a $20 million average per year, but their cap hit doesn’t have to be that high. The signing bonus could keep the year one cap hit low, while maintaining a high year one cash flow to the player. Let’s say there’s $8 million left over to spend and Baltimore makes a few more moves that get them up to $11 or $12 million in cap space. Get rid of Tony Jefferson and there’s $7 million more, putting the team at $15 million.

Of 2020’s free agent class, two big targets that wouldn’t cost anywhere near that money would be AJ Green and Emmanuel Sanders. Green will be 32 next season after missing 2019 with a bum ankle and has spent his whole career in Cincinnati. Could the Ravens get him for two or three-years at $10 million a pop? Or the 33-year old Sanders at $8 million per over the same duration? Both are plausible. Point being, they can afford either.

Does Robby Anderson at $10 million per year excite you? Considering Brown already provides that ability to take the top off, maybe not.

Or do you flip that equation and go after Amari Cooper for $10 million per season, then try to keep Judon and hope the first round pick at defensive end becomes a year one contributor?

I have no issue with a team that is the frontrunner for the 2020 Super Bowl doing something that, in many cases, would feel like an overextension of cap space with the big money going to a pass rusher, plus near double figures going to an early-thirties WR, but in this case, both additions put the Ravens even more so in the drivers seat.

With the draft picks, that first round pick would be well served being spent on a edge rusher or receiver. I love Tee Higgins out of Clemson, Justin Jefferson from LSU, or Devonta Smith from Alabama. For edge rushers, I’ve seen names like K’Lavon Chaisson from LSU, Yetur Gross-Matos from Penn State, and Terrell Lewis from Alabama. If they get a contributor at either position in the first round, this is a much better team in 2020.

With the second or third round pick, I’d address whatever position isn’t addressed in the first round.

There isn’t much to be concerned with for Ravens fan. This was a great team and it’s a player or two away from being a Super Bowl winner. These next few months will determine if the Lombardi trophy will return to Baltimore and those 8:1 odds look tasty.