So if we’re assuming the Ravens head into Free Agency with about $29 million in space for next year if they hold onto Carr, I’m going to assume they let him walk. That pushes the number to $35 million, with ERFA’s and draft picks. The Ravens have tagged Judon, so I’m starting with a baseline of $19 million.
(Comment on what you think I’d do on the BSL forums here.)
The first thing I’d do is sign Kyle Van Noy to replace Judon. Van Noy is a guy that I really like. He has played in space before, though he really shined last year when he was used more as a pure edge rusher. He had a 72.1 PFF pass rush grade, and a total of 58 pressures, to go with 6.5 sacks and 15 QB hits. Those numbers don’t stack up to Judon’s 9.5 sacks and 33 QB hits but I believe in Martindale’s system he’s a better fit because he’s a bit better tackler and better in space as he was primarily playing there before this year. The pundit rumors are a 3-year, 30.5 million deal with the Lions with $15 million guaranteed. At 3/33 with $16 guaranteed, you could lower that cap hit down to $6.5 million in year one. I think he’s a better version of Jarrett Johnson and is a great fit in this defense. This takes me down to $12.5 million in total cap space.
Next I’d go after Corey Littleton. I’m going to set his AAV at $14 million. To me he’s the splashy crown jewel of FA that the Ravens could really use. He’s 26 and he’s the perfect fit in the middle of this defense and the type of guy you can leave as your only ILB if you need to. I think you could get him at 4-years, $14 million AAV, with a large chunk guaranteed. Let’s say $40 million guaranteed, with some of that loaded into 2021 roster bonus to get you to a $9 million on the cap. I think he might bite because he’d be 30 at the end of this deal, and primed for a second contract. And I don’t think we see CJ’s deal eclipsed quite yet, that was special circumstances related to the Jets cap space last year. That would take you down to $3.5 million in cap space.
I’d then trade Judon for a 2nd or multiple 3rd type draft picks. Or I’d just simply let him walk to use the cap space on the next set of moves. Taking my cap space back up to $19.5 million in cap space.
I’d make a run at Calais Campbell. He’s 33, coming off a $15 million AAV deal. I think he could probably also be had for a 3/$30 million deal. With $12 million guaranteed. That’s a $5 million cap hit this year. And ideally by the end of this deal you can get out if you need to.
All those moves leave the Ravens with $14 million. I’d bring back McPhee and Bynes and let them try to win their spots. If Ward can come back for cheap, I like him but I’d let him test the market first and be looking to pay him closer to the minimum. And then I’d look for the next Brandon Carr type signing. He signed a 4-year $24 million deal. It had a year-1 cap hit of $3 million. Taking you down to $11 million. This could be a guy the Ravens decide they like amongst Jimmy Smith, Ronald Darby, Mackensie Alexander, Jalen Mills, even Xavier Rhodes, just someone of that ilk I think will be available in that same price range.
I’m already comfortable at QB, OL, RB, TE, ILB, CB, and S if you follow this path.
You’ll need depth at OLB, DE, and DT in this scenario. A guy like Jihad Ward could be really useful for DE/OLB role. And you can always bring back guys like Peko and Ellis if needed at DT.
I think with our first two picks of the draft you see the Ravens take a pass rush specialist type and a speedy WR that can also return kicks. And I wouldn’t rule out moving up in either round to do so, with the extra draft capital added by the Judon trade.
You could end the offseason in the $4-5 million range here, and if you factor in potential cuts to guys like James Hurst and reworking parts of Tavon Young or Peters deal who are likely to be here next year regardless if you needed a bit of space.
In reality, this is my personal dream scenario, I think we likely sign one or two of these guys at most and ultimately retain Judon. Also adding the caveat that I don’t have any meaningful sense of what our 2021 cap really looks like. My best guess is that B. Williams, Ingram, Hurst are likely gone and you’ve resigned Stanley and taken Humphrey’s 5th year option. And I’m guessing you can’t add all three of these guys due to the potential cap explosion when we need to sign Lamar, but you’re in a position here to move on from both Campbell and Van Noy if you need to. This is definitely an all-in on 2020 scenario.
But this iteration of defense, I think could be very dynamic. And it means I trust the Ravens to be able to duplicate last year’s offense with only the loss of Yanda as a starter and Roberts as a meaningful contributor.
Ravens Analyst
Jordan Kough is a graduate of University of Maryland, Baltimore County. He’s a long standing Ravens and Orioles fan of many years. He grew up just north of Baltimore and likes the statistical analysis of games as much as watching games themselves.