The Ravens Paths To The Playoffs By The Numbers

If you aren’t a fan of gory, gory, math. Cover your eyes, because we’re about to wade deep into some thickets.

The Ravens are one of four 7-6 AFC teams tied on record for the last playoff spot. They also have developed a backdoor into the playoffs via Pittsburgh’s sudden collapse over the last few weeks, as the Steelers are now sitting at 7-5-1. Per Football Outsiders, Baltimore’s chances of making the playoffs are at 48.6%. Per the New York Times’ interactive playoff calculator, they’re at 48 percent as well. So there’s about a 50/50 chance that the Ravens will be dancing.

Now let’s take this a bit further. Las Vegas creates spreads for each NFL game. Here are what they have for the Ravens right now:

Week 15 versus Tampa Bay: -7.5, O/U of 46.5 — implied score of 27 – 19.5, Baltimore

If Baltimore performs as expected by the numbers this week, it would create, per NYT, a 60 percent chance that they make the playoffs, independent of other results that could happen. And if every Vegas favorite won, that chance would jump to 70 percent. The main reason for that is the Pittsburgh-New England game. New England is favored, and a win by Baltimore and a loss by Pittsburgh would actually make the Ravens much more likely to win the AFC North than take a wild card. Particularly if other tight spreads, like the Titans by -1 over the Giants come out for the favorites.

Another factor in that is that Pittsburgh will play the Saints in Week 16, and the Saints in theory will still have enough to play for that they won’t just drop the game. So while we don’t have hard numbers on where Vegas is taking that game, it seems likely it will be another game the Steelers are favored to drop.

My suspicion is that Baltimore will not be favored against the Chargers, but will be favored against the Browns even though Baker Mayfield’s play of late has made that a more tenuous situation. 2-1 or 1-2 are the most logical results.

If this plays out over the last three weeks, below is how it would look. By Vegas/DVOA favorites, I’m taking Vegas for this week, and the team with the higher DVOA in Weeks 16-17 since we don’t have lines yet.

Baltimore’s Odds of Making the Playoffs With Vegas / DVOA Favorites Over Last Three Weeks: 

Ravens go: 3-0
Disregard Other Results: 99%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 100%

Ravens go: 2-1
Disregard Other Results: 82%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 100%

Ravens go: 1-2
Disregard Other Results: 12%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 1%

Ravens go: 0-3
Disregard Other Results: 0%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 0%

Essentially: If Baltimore goes 2-1 and the Steelers can’t beat the Patriots or Saints, they’re pretty fortunate. The tie for the Steelers, though, makes it hard for them to be overcome without a swing.

Where Baltimore is in trouble is the wild card race. They’re on top of it right now because of how the NFL breaks four-team ties. When they start getting into single-team tiebreaks, things get a little more dire. Let’s assume the Steelers go 2-1 and make it impossible for the Ravens to win the division without winning out. Here’s what happens when we do that:

Baltimore’s Odds of Making The Playoffs Without Winning Out; If Pittsburgh Goes 2-1 Over Their Last Three Games

Ravens go: 2-1
Disregard Other Results: 33%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 0%

Ravens go: 1-2
Disregard Other Results: 1%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 0%

Ravens go: 0-3
Disregard Other Results: 0%
Vegas / DVOA Favorites: 0%

The truth of the matter is that Tennessee’s game against the Giants is a result the Ravens really need to get a wild card spot. The Titans face the Mark Sanchez-led Skins in Week 16. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have two remaining games against the Bills and Cody Kessler Jaguars. The Colts have three loseable games against the Cowboys, Giants, and Titans, but are a much better team on paper than either the Titans or Dolphins.

Colts-Titans is another pivotal game for Baltimore. The Colts break ties against Baltimore with a 2-1 record as long as they get that last conference win.

All of which is a long-winded way to say: The Ravens are actually more statistically likely to win the division at this point, as weird as that is to say given where they were six weeks ago.