Ravens Q&A with Danny Tuccitto, Football Outsiders

Sunday night in Pittsburgh, the Baltimore Ravens will reach the mid-point of their 2011 season. With that in-mind, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out Danny Tuccitto, from Football Outsiders for his thoughts on the Ravens.

You can find his work at:
http://footballoutsiders.com/

You can find Tuccitto, and Football Outsiders on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/FO_DTuccitto
http://twitter.com/#!/fboutsiders

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Tuccitto for answering a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In the horrific Monday night loss at Jacksonville, the Ravens looked remarkably inept. That carried over for nearly a half against Arizona. In the second half against the Cardinals, and in their other four wins, they have looked strong, and capable of more. As the season nears the mid-point, what teams do you believe to be more talented than Baltimore?”

Tuccitto: “Regardless of what happened against Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona, I still think the Ravens are the most complete team in the AFC when it comes to talent across the board. It’s hard to call them the “best” team right now, though, given the eggs they laid in those games. The good thing for them is that all of these missteps are happening early in the season, and I suspect people won’t even remember them once the regular season’s over.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With McKinney at LT, Oher back at RT, and Yanda back at RG, the offensive line is improved from last year. While improved, the line has had their share of issues. With Ben Grubbs out of action since the opener, Andre Gurode has had to fill in. Oher looks more comfortable at RT, but continues to amass a large amount of penalties. McKinney is playing better than Oher did last year, but can be beat off the edge. What are your thoughts on the line overall, and when Grubbs returns; who should start at Center – Birk or Gurode?”

Tuccitto: “Totally agree with you about the idea that the improvement is due to guys playing where they’re supposed to be playing given their skill sets. With that said, I still think there’s room for even more improvement. I charted the first half of Baltimore’s blowout win against St. Louis, and even in that “good” game, the offensive line blew eight blocks that led to either a pass pressure or run for loss: four by McKinney, two by Gurode, and two by Yanda. Of course, they were going against probably the best “unknown” defensive line in the league, so perhaps we can cut them some slack.

When Grubbs comes back, I’d stick with Birk at center. Don’t think you ever want to change centers in the middle of the season unless the starter is just an abject failure. Birk hasn’t been that. Now, Birk’s still working through that chronic neck issue, so maybe Gurode will be forced in at some point, but I don’t think he will overtake Birk based on a coach’s decision.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald recently told us that when Hernandez and Gronkowski are healthy, the Patriots are using them on the field together 80% of the time. Gronkowski has been in all 7 games, has 36 catches, and is averaging 13.8 yards per catch. Hernandez has been in 5 games, has 29 catches, and is averaging 10.3 yards per catch. Conversely, Dickson has 28 catches, and is averaging 9.6 yards per catch. Pitta has 16 catches, and is averaging 9.3 yards per catch. Both Ravens TE’s have played in all 7 games. It is true that Brady is not throwing to the Baltimore TE’s, but Dickson and Pitta do have the physical skills to mimic what the Patriots pair is doing. I believe the Ravens have to figure out how to utilize their pair better, and get them on the field together more often. Agree, disagree?”

Tuccitto: “Well, I think this is one of those situations where the behind-the-scenes logistics of NFL football can really drive fans up the wall. It’s just incredibly difficult for teams to change who they are in the middle of the season. New England’s base offense is a two tight end set, and it’s designed to get those tight ends the ball in the middle of the field on intermediate routes. That’s who they are. Baltimore’s base offense is a traditional two-back, two-wideout set, and it’s designed to get the ball to wide receivers via play action.

That’s who New England and Baltimore are. Those are the offenses they’ve run for several years now, installed in an abbreviated training camp this year, and have executed in the first eight weeks. During the season, practices during the week are mostly for installing the game plan. There’s just no time for the Ravens to change their offensive philosophy all of a sudden, and become a Patriots-style two tight end unit.

For sure, that’s got to be frustrating to observers like you who think they should do just that. As a 49ers fan, I spent much of the past few years banging my head against a wall wondering why, with no good receivers, the offense didn’t use two tight ends more often given the wide-receiver-like skill set of Delanie Walker. Basically, you’re just going to have to grin and bear it.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Lee Evans has played in just 2 games this year, as he deals with an ankle injury. In the absence of Evans, Torrey Smith has received extended time, showing his abilities at St. Louis. Assuming Evans returns at some point, Baltimore will have a number of options that can stretch the field, with Boldin and Rice operating underneath.

While we understand that teams want to be ‘multiple’ and be able to adapt and attack the differing styles of their opponents, I think there is something to be said about acknowledging what you do best and making people stop that. Baltimore still looks their best when they pound the rock and use play-action off that. Despite what we saw in Jacksonville, the Ravens can win most weeks without playing perfect or to their primary strengths. Are they better served trying to use the Regular Season to expand their passing attack, or should they spend most weeks trying to perfect ground and pound?”

Tuccitto: “I think my last answer basically laid out my thoughts on this. Baltimore knows who they are, and John Harbaugh is from the Holmgren-Reid school of doing what you do best. They run with Rice, throw it to Boldin and Dickson underneath, and use play action to get deep balls to Smith and/or Evans.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Ravens defense is ranked number 1 overall, and with 25 sacks (tied for 2nd in the NFL) there is evidence they have been successful in bringing more pressure under new Defensive Coordinator Chuck Pagano, than they were under former Coordinator Greg Mattison. ESPN’s Monday Night crew spent time in the Jacksonville game talking about Baltimore blitzing roughly 50% of the time on 3rd down this season.

I imagine you like that aggression, what offensive lines do you think would match-up well with Baltimore? Do you believe the Ravens can be exposed against a prolific passing attack?”

Tuccitto: “Just to augment your stats a little bit, we have the Ravens defense ranked second in adjusted sack rate (ASR), which is just sacks per opponent dropback, adjusted for down, distance, and opponent. The only team ranked ahead of them is the Redskins, with an ASR of 9.9 percent (Baltimore’s is 9.2 percent).

Looking at the rest of their schedule, the one team that stands out as having a decent chance to contain the Ravens’ pass rush is the Bengals. Right now, their offensive line has an ASR of only 5.2 percent, which is good for seventh in the league. On the flip side, they should be able to get plenty of pressure against teams like Seattle (28th), and this week’s opponent, Pittsburgh (26th).”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Ngata signed the 5 year contract extension, with $40M in guaranteed dollars. You can make the argument that with Suh, Ngata is one of the two best interior D-lineman in football. As the careers of Lewis, and Reed end; the Ravens defense will be built around Ngata, Suggs, and Smith. What were your thoughts on Ngata’s contract? Is it fair to ask if a cheaper extension could have been negotiated earlier in Ngata’s career, and prior to him having been named a Franchise player?”

Tuccitto: “I’m not an expert in contract negotiations by any means, but I think there were a couple of things that delayed the extension. First, if you were the Ravens, wouldn’t you like to get as much value out of Ngata’s rookie contract as possible? He originally signed a five-year, $14 million deal. I mean, $2.8 million per year for an All-Pro talent seems like a pretty sweet deal that any front office would like milking as long as possible.

Second, and kind of related, is that 3-4 defensive end (or the analogous 4-3 defensive tackle) is not generally a position that teams spend a lot of money on. So, when Suh signed his huge rookie deal before the 2010 season, and Baltimore realized that’s about what they’d have to pay in order to extend Ngata, they had to really think long and hard about whether or not to commit that kind of money to that position.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Next to Ngata on the D-line is Terrence Cody. Cody has lost a considerable amount of weight, and has been another upgrade for Baltimore as a replacement for Gregg. What are you seeing from Cody?”

Tuccitto: “Cody’s already developed into one of the best nose tackles in the NFL. Even after losing all that weight, he’s still stout enough to do what nose tackles are supposed to do: fill up space, and occupy blockers so the linebackers can make plays. As an added bonus, his play has allowed Ngata to wreak even more havoc. He’s now on pace for career highs in both tackles and sacks.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With a defense that includes Ngata, Lewis, and Reed; sometimes I think people overlook Suggs. To me, since the 2010 bye, Suggs has been playing at the highest level of his career. For his position, where do you rank Suggs with the rest of the league?”

Tuccitto: “We have to compare apples to apples here, so I’d say he’s in a group of 1As behind DeMarcus Ware at 3-4 outside linebacker. In that 1A group, I’d put Suggs with James Harrison, Clay Matthews, and Mario Williams. After them, I’d say the next tier is Cameron Wake, Tamba Hali, and Brian Orakpo.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Flacco has had two horrible games on the National stage this year against the Jets, and Jaguars. His completion percentage has dropped to 53.8% (career 60.7%). On the other-side, Flacco was excellent against Pittsburgh, and St. Louis. There are plenty of people in Baltimore (and Nationally) who believe Flacco is the one holding the Ravens back. Even if it is fair to question if he will ever be ‘elite’, I think his overall body of work has shown him to be a very solid QB.

Coach Harbaugh spent large parts of the off-season saying he wanted to see maturation in Flacco’s leadership, and that the QB would get the opportunity to make more adjustments at the line. If Flacco was calling more of his own plays, I feel like we would see more of the shotgun and spread formations he prefers. When the Ravens moved Flacco into the sugar huddle and shotgun Sunday, we saw the results immediately improve.

Flacco is in his 4^th year in Cam Cameron’s offense. Most people locally do not believe Cameron will return next year. At this point in Flacco’s career, should he be able to call his own plays? Do you believe the Ravens can win a Super Bowl with Flacco under Center?”

Tuccitto: “Yes. In fact, I picked them to reach the Super Bowl this season. Now, to Flacco’s accuracy issues, I’m not a scout, so I’m not going to try to break down his mechanics or anything. Rather, I think there’s one major factor that I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about.

Presumably because of Smith’s emergence and an improved running game, Flacco’s been throwing the ball deep a lot more often this season. Specifically, if you look only at air yards, 11 percent of his passes have travelled 26 or more yards, compared to seven percent last season and five percent in 2009. Those are low percentage throws — he missed Smith deep twice in the first half against St. Louis alone — so his completion percentage is going to take a hit.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With the improved line in-front of him, Rice’s yard per carry has increased from 4.0 last year to 4.3 this year. He is on pace to again have 60+ receptions, and over 850 yards receiving. He has also stepped up and made several strong blocks in blitz coverage. Where do you rank Rice among RB’s? Should the Ravens be willing to give him $30M guaranteed (Chris Johnson dollars), or do you think RB’s are too replaceable to provide him with major dollars?”

Tuccitto: “I’m glad you mentioned Rice’s abilities in blitz pickup. If you want to see a perfect example of how it benefits the Ravens’ offense, check out Smith’s first touchdown against the Rams (the 74-yard bomb). On that play, Ben Leber blitzes into a wide open hole, and Rice picks it up. If not for Rice, that touchdown never happens.

In my mind, given his consistency, durability, and involvement in the passing game (both blocking and receiving), he’s in the discussion for best all-around back in the league with Adrian Peterson, Maurice-Jones Drew, and Frank Gore. Peterson is a freak of nature, so he’s probably 1A, and the others 1B, but all four of them are the total package. Matt Forte’s making a case to join the conversation this season, but he hasn’t done it for long enough. Steven Jackson would be there too if not for the fact that he can’t stay healthy.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Hypothetically, if the Ravens could only extend Flacco, or Rice – which one would you choose?”

Tuccitto: “I can’t see that decision ever presenting itself. They’ll probably get one of them extended after this year, and then resign the other after next year. However, hypothetically speaking, they’d have to extend Flacco over Rice. After 2012, Rice will be 26 years old. Maurice Jones-Drew, who he’s most often compared to, is 26 right now, and his body is already starting to break down. Jones-Drew got extended at 24, and I bet that if he were up for renewal right now, Jacksonville would have second thoughts about handing him a king’s ransom.

Now, if the Ravens draft a young quarterback in next year’s draft, the writing might be on the wall for Flacco to go somewhere else.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Where and how will the Ravens season end? Will it be the end of the regular season January 1^st at Cincinnati? Will it be in the AFC playoffs? Will it be in the Super Bowl? Will it be with them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy?”

Tuccitto: “As I predicted on our website before the season, I think the Super Bowl is Green Bay versus Baltimore, with the Packers repeating. I’m still on board with that. Just as a side note, in our preseason interview, I didn’t predict the Ravens to go to the Super Bowl, but that was before they vastly improved their offensive line problems by acquiring McKinnie and Gurode.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “What are your thoughts on Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh on Sunday night?”

Tuccitto: “Outside of the first game of this season, the contests in this rivalry have been very predictable. It will be close, and there won’t be a ton of offense. A lot has been made of Roethlisberger throwing the ball 50 times last week, but the way to beat New England is by exploiting their pass defense. It would have been stupid for the Steelers not to gear their offensive game plan towards the passing game. That’s not to say they’re still a run-first team. They haven’t been that for a few seasons now. However, I just bring it up to point out that they won’t be throwing 50 passes — or even 40 — against Baltimore.

In terms of matchups, I think the Steelers are going to have a hard time moving the ball against the Ravens because, on first down, Pittsburgh’s offense is ranked 29th according to our efficiency stats, whereas Baltimore’s defense is the best in the NFL. That’s going to present a lot of long-yardage situations, which will then allow Baltimore’s second-ranked pass rush to pin their ears back, and attack the offensive line that I mentioned earlier is eight-worst in the league when it comes to pass protection.

Things won’t be much easier for Baltimore’s offense, but I think they’ll be able to score more than Pittsburgh’s. I’d be an idiot to predict a winner, but I think this one will be closer than the 35-7 Ravens win in Week 1.”