Ravens Struggle with the Numbers Game in the Trenches

The Miami game left us with a lot of questions. Any game where you blow a 21-point lead would. While many are looking to the defense for answers, I want to look at what I think could be an alarming trend on the Ravens offense.

Last Sunday’s game could have gone a little different if the offense could convert on short yardage. Extend drives, keep the ball away from big time playmakers, in one case literally put seven points on the board if they could move the ball six inches.

Ravens runners not named Lamar Jackson rushed for 36 yards on 16 carries last week. Take away Mark Andrews sneaky little 4th and 1 conversion motioning to under center for three yards, and it’s 15 for 33 yards. A measly 2.2 yards per carry.  In Week 1, 15 for 46 yards. Just a tick above 3.0 YPC. I understand they are missing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, the former we hope returns to game action this week in New England. But Greg Roman is a run game specialist. Is he not? The Ravens had a history making season of running the ball before J.K. Dobbins was even drafted, did they not?

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I’ll come back to that. But let’s talk about Rashod Bateman, and how these things may connect. His skillset was something absolutely lacking in Roman’s offense when the Ravens drafted him in 2021. The ability to run routes so crisp that he gets open with ease and makes catch and runs more possible. Yards after catch seemed non-existent before. Bateman also possesses a great set of hands. He has all the characteristics of the person you put in the “X” role in the receiving group. The ability to win one-on-one matchups often. In his limited reps in 2021 he showed this off, and two games into the 2022 season he looks like a big play waiting to happen. Touchdown catches of 55 and 75 yards thus far.

Someone like Bateman plays a lot of snaps, right? The top receivers do. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Maar Chase, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and a host of others all have played over 95% of their teams snaps this season. I’m not saying Bateman is Cooper Kupp. But he’s our X, our #1. If you don’t count Mark Andrews.

Please explain to me why Rashod Bateman has only played 63% of the Ravens offensive snaps this season? A number that leads the receiver group by the way. Devin Duvernay, 52%. Demarcus Robinson, 43%. Tylan Wallace, 13%. James Proche, 9%. Wallace and Proche practically non-existent. Sure, tight end Mark Andrews is a major player and is on the field for 83% of the snaps.

Does Greg Roman not realize he has someone that can give you Davante Adams level production on his side of the ball? Does he not realize that Bateman’s presence on the field would certainly draw attention?

Let’s go back to the Ravens lack of production by the running backs. If I’m counting Patrick Ricard as a fullback, Greg Roman loves to run the ball out of “22” personnel. “2” backs, “2” tight ends. With Lamar Jackson under center and five O-lineman, 22 personnel means there is one wide receiver. But sometimes Roman will take it a step further and add a sixth O-lineman at the receiver’s expense.

This was one particular 3rd and short on the Ravens first drive. The play before Andrews converted the 4th and 1 with a clever design, I’ll give Roman credit for. Mike Davis in the backfield, Lamar Jackson under center. Not a wide receiver in sight. Roman invites all 11 Dolphins defenders within six yards of the line of scrimmage. Nine of them within two yards.

The numbers game that football is means that nine guys are hat on a hat in the trenches, and the two Dolphin linebackers can just find the ball. It’ll either be Davis or Jackson. Once Jackson hands it off, it’s now two on one. All those linebackers have to do is fill the gaps Davis could run through and one of them can make an easy play. That’s exactly what happens.

This wasn’t a case of the Ravens O-lineman not being good run blockers. Not a case of Davis being half the running back J.K. Dobbins is and not getting it done. This is just making the game way too hard on yourself. Don’t invite 11 guys in the box. Allowing the defense to win the numbers game too easily. Maybe Rashod Bateman should be on the field more than 63% of the time. Keep defenses honest. Make them think you could throw it on 3rd and 1. You get a corner covering Bateman, and probably a single high safety who might the cheat the run, but has to at least have his eyes in two places at once.

Along with Bateman, you know who else plays 63% of the snaps on this team. Patrick Ricard! I love the guy, but come on.

Here is the pivotal 4th and 1 the Ravens couldn’t convert while up by 14, with just under ten minutes to play in the game. First, the ball is on the 40-yard line. It’s a 57-yard field goal to take a three-score lead. Well within Justin Tucker range. Same setup as the 3^rd and 1 back in the 1st quarter. Just reversed. The side the motions man goes to is the side they run the ball to, just like they did on that 3rd and 1, and many other runs throughout the day.

Count the helmets to the left. The Ravens look good in the numbers game. But once they set Andrews in motion,  the defense knows where you are going. Even with Andrews added to the play side, more Dolphin defenders come to that side, and you’ve lost the numbers game. Even with Kevin Zeitler pulling, I count seven Dolphins to the left of Tyler Linderbaum, and six Ravens blockers.

End result. Jackson thinks there is a hole. Oops. Noot enough blockers, and the Dolphins are almost waiting for them to get there.

But when you win the numbers game, good things happen. When it looks like you could throw a pass, it could take defenders out of the equation if you decide to run. You might recognize this play. 21 Personnel. Two WRs on the field in Bateman and Duvernay. Mekari has already motioned from left to right, and in this angle you can see where the single high safety is. But the middle linebacker will signal to him to move up toward the line once Mekari goes in motion. He thinks it’s a run to that side, and he’s not wrong.

But count the helmets. Here is the mesh point as this is a read option executed by Lamar Jackson. Devin Duvernay is coming on a jet sweep and Lamar can give it, or pull it back and take it himself. Not including the corner who runs with Duvernay and in man coverage won’t leave him, I count five defenders, and the key being the pulling Ben Powers making for five Ravens blockers. The safety, #8, who moved up to the line has his eyes in the backfield and has a pretty clear shot at Duvernay if Jackson gives it off.

As the play develops, count the helmets again. 4-on-4. The safety who moved up to cheat the run, had this been a straight handoff to Davis, is now trying to change direction and make a play on Jackson. Ben Powers is having none of it. For Lamar Jackson it’s off to the races at this point.

Was this play more successful because you had two WRs on the field? You don’t have to matchup seven blockers on seven defenders on one side. The cornerback off screen isn’t even a factor on the play because he’s playing Bateman. If this wasn’t a read option on a jet sweep, and that safety cheats like he did, Jackson has the option to audible to a pass since someone is out there to run a route.

Bottom line, you have to win the numbers game. The more defenders you invite in the box, combined with not giving yourself any outs, the harder that becomes. It’s been suggested that the Ravens are going to try to shorten some of the verbiage in the play calling because too often are they coming to line with just a few second left on the play clock. I hope that is true, because the more time you have to look at the defense in front of you, the more time Jackson has to figure out the numbers. What is it now? What is it if I send a man in motion? What is it with a pulling guard?