Ravens Talk: Fact & Opinion

With the usual apologies to Baltimore Ravens.com columnist John Eisenberg, here’s my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Fact: As we all know, the Baltimore Ravens finished the 2019 Regular season 14-2, winning their last 12 games. The #1 overall seed in the AFC, will host a game in the Divisional Round Saturday January 11th.

Opinion: It’s fun entering the post-season as the perceived bully, and having expectations.

Fact: The Ravens went 5-1 against the other playoff teams.

Opinion: Everything points to the Ravens being the deserved favorite to grab the Lombardi, but anything can happen in 1 game scenarios against good teams. We will spend a lot of time at the site looking at each match-up, but ultimately how far the Ravens go will come down to the Ravens imo. If they don’t beat themselves, if they don’t give other teams turnovers and points – then some team is going to have out-slug the Ravens to knock Baltimore out of the playoffs. There are some teams who can line up and deliver their own haymakers, but the Ravens are going to come out swinging like Tyson in his prime… and as Iron Mike once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” 

Fact: In Football Outsiders DVOA, the Ravens ranked 1st overall, 1st in Offense, 4th in Defense, and 10th in Special Teams. In-terms of Total DVOA, the Ravens are being compared to some of the best teams of All-Time.  The ’85 Bears, the ’91 Redskins, etc.

Opinion: If this Ravens team finishes the deal, and wins the Super Bowl; they’re going to have an argument for being one of the best single season teams ever.

Fact: Free Agent acquisitions Mark Ingram, and Earl Thomas both made the Pro Bowl.

Opinion: It’s often argued what comes first? Chemistry or winning?  My opinion is that winning makes everything better, but winning often occurs because chemistry and leadership exists. I was a little skeptical of how much Thomas had left in the tank during the first month of the season, but my evaluation was off. It was less about him, or getting used to a new scheme, and the limitations of what was around him. He produced. So did Ingram. As valuable as their on-field production was, I think what they both added to this roster was some gravitas.

Fact: Prior to the Opener, I wrote about being excited for the Jackson era, and expecting him to be productive. Pressed on numbers, I said I anticipated a completion percentage over 61%, over 3,400 passing yards, over 800 rushing yards, under 24 passing TD’s, under 32 total TD’s, over 18 turnovers, and that he would finish with a QBR under 60.  He finished with a 66.1% completion %, 3,127 passing yards (15 games), 1,206 rushing yards (most ever by a QB), 36 passing TD’s, 43 total TD’s, 8 turnovers, and a 81.1 QBR.

Opinion: I thought he’d be good. I didn’t anticipate him being the clear MVP. His rushing attempts per game (11.7) were about what I expected. I’m not real shocked by the completion % jump. The amount of passing TD’s surprised me. For all of the credit Jackson gets for his Year 1 to Year 2 development, what is missed the most is the work he did to make sure he protects the ball. He had 6 interceptions on his 401 passing attempts. That’s great. There were 8 fumbles, but only 2 were lost on his 176 rushing attempts. For comparison, in ’18, he had 10 fumbles on 147 carries. Easy to love a guy that talented, that is that humble, and works that hard.

Fact: In ’18 Edwards had 137 carries for for 718 yards, 5.2 ypc. In ’19 Edwards had 133 carries for 711 yards, 5.3 ypc.

Opinion: Unsung, consistently productive. He routinely gets positive yards. Think he’s been utilized perfectly, and he’s in an ideal system for his talents.

Fact: Andrews, 64 receptions, 852 yards, 10 TD’s.  Hurst, 30 receptions, 349 yards, 2 TD’s. Boyle, 31 receptions, 321 yards, 2 TD’s.

Opinion: Andrews is the best threat. Hurst has the best hands. Boyle‘s the best blocker. Typically people would be saying that having these three together is a luxury. In this system, it should be a priority to keep each of them.

Fact: The Ravens led the NFL in Time of Possession, holding the ball 34 minutes and 47 seconds per game.

Opinion: The ability to effectively hold the ball, and be extremely efficient with the offensive possessions they had; was a truly lethal combination.

Fact: Marcus Peters became the 4th Raven (Snead, Ricard, Fort) since the season started to sign an extension.

Opinion: I love that DeCosta is being proactive here. Peters’ playing style is fun to watch. You might occasionally beat him because he gambles, but he’s a ball hawk, and a legitimate playmaker. If Tavon Young returns next year at his 2018 level, the Secondary is going to be ridiculous.

Fact: The Ravens led the league in blitz percentage.

Opinion: Part of this was due to necessity (the Ravens couldn’t line up and get to the passer with just rushing 4), but the mentality is great regardless. It’s, “We’re coming after you. Good luck.” Week-after-week we’ve seen QB’s look uncomfortable dealing with Martindale’s scheme. The defense has improved throughout the year. Addition of Peters. Opportunity developing for Clark. Bowser and Ferguson coming on some. Bynes and Fort being added and providing stability. The depth and quality of the Secondary allowing Martindale to just go and get after guys.  You don’t always have to get sacks. This wasn’t a great pass rushing team (21st overall in sacks), but they improved in making QB’s uncomfortable.

Fact: Wild Card weekend in the AFC is Buffalo at Houston, and Tennessee at New England.

Opinion: I’ll take Houston and New England, but I’m not overly confident with either pick. Buffalo has a defense that will travel, and the Titans have weapons and have played well with Tannehill. Also the Patriots obviously seem a bit wobbly. Just guessing Belichick and Brady find a way. One note with Houston, Watt has been working out, and it’s possible he’s activated.