Ravens vs. Pittsburgh: Sunday Bloody Sunday Pt. 2

Roughly one-full year ago on a cold January 18th, 2009 morning, I wrote about the Baltimore Ravens heading into Pittsburgh for more than a game, and a trip to the Super Bowl.

My comments before that AFC Championship Match-up were:

“Today is not just a game….. people that do not follow sports closely, always come back to that statement, “It is just a game.”

There can be no dispute that sports are only of so much significance, but calling contests such as today, ‘just a game,’ just do not provide proper context.

The reason sports play such a large role in American (and World) culture, is because a game like today is the ultimate drama.

Not a drama being portrayed on a stage, but a stage that is a stadium being acted out for the entire world to see, without a script foretelling the ending.

Today is about everlasting legacy.

Today is about Joe Flacco, with his entire career ahead of him… but who may never have a better opportunity, then what is before him today.

Today is about Ed Reed. The 2002 1st round pick has been the AP Defensive Player of the Year, has been a 5 time Pro Bowl player… and up until two weeks ago, had never won a post-season game.

With or without a win today, he will have his place on the Ravens Ring of Honor, he will be enshrined in Canton… but to have a chance to achieve true immortality, he must win today.

Today is about Todd Heap. The 2001 1st round pick, that has been a 2 time Pro Bowl player. That joined the Ravens months after their Super Bowl 35 victory, and has spent his entire career waiting for a similar opportunity.

One game today should not significantly alter how you feel about Heap, but the reality is it can.

Today is about Terrell Suggs. The 2003 1st round pick, is a 3 time Pro Bowl player… who joined the Ravens as a 20 year-old, and has matured as a man. He has played in every game of his 6 year career… and now has a significant injury that would keep plenty of guys glued to the sidelines.

When you see him out on the field today, it should be clear to all what he is playing for.

Today is about 35 year old Derrick Mason. A player that has had a near illustrious career, which has been played in the shadows. Today is about earning another chance to a Super Bowl, after his team (Titans) came up a yard short of possible victory 9 years ago.

Today is the reward for spending most of 2008 playing with a separated shoulder… not being able to lift his arm… and finding a way to make plays over and over.

Today is about Ray Lewis.

I believe Lewis will be back with the Ravens in 2009, but there are no guarantees.

The truth is today; in Pittsburgh could be his final game as a member of the Baltimore Ravens.

The truth is Ray has been the face of the franchise since he was selected in the 1st round in April 1996.

The truth is with Ogden retired, him and Stover are the only players remaining from that first Ravens season.

The truth is that Lewis’ accomplishments – Super Bowl 35 MVP, 2 time Defensive MVP, 10 Pro-Bowls should put him into the discussion for greatest players of All-Time.

The truth is, his accomplishments to date – have not erased that horrible Jan. 31st 2000 night in Atlanta.

Lewis will always be guilty of the company he kept that night… and for lying to the police in the immediate aftermath. The fact that the people he was with, broke out in a fight… and two people wound up dead is horrible… the fact that he lied to the police in the immediate hours afterwards… inexcusable…

However, him hearing wherever he goes a decade later that he condoned murder, or is a murderer himself, is just not accurate.

That ATL DA wanted to take a down a high-profile name, to raise his name…. when it became clear there was no evidence against Ray’s involvement with the murder… and became clear that if anything he had played the roll of attempted peacemaker… the DA came to him with the plea-bargain, as a way of ‘winning’ something from the case.

Also, you have to look at how he has acted in the years since… you have never heard of so much as a brawl….

Two links to discussion of the plea agreement:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/foo…wis_agreement/
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/f…9.story?page=1

Today is about Ray Lewis once again making a game changing play, and carrying a franchise on his shoulders.

Today is about Lewis once again finding the national spotlight, achieving the vindication he deserves, and further etching in stone of how he will be remembered.

Today is going to be a war… Sunday Bloody Sunday… we will see what happens with the respective legacies.”

With the benefit of time, we know how that game ended. The Ravens played 19 games in the 2008 season, going 13-6 overall. 3 of those 6 losses were to the Steelers. While another tough loss was more enjoyable than being a non-factor, and not having had the opportunity for greatness; the bottom-line is that the Pittsburgh Steelers were the ones that seized the moment, and further cemented their legacy as a franchise.

When the Ravens took the field that January 2009 night, my one thought was on how there are a finite amount of opportunities presented in-life.

When that game ended, it was a fair question to ask if the window of opportunity had closed for Baltimore in the immediate term.

When the Ravens step out and onto Heinz Field tomorrow, I suspect their one main collective thought will be on redemption. Life does not always provide a replay, or a second chance. Tomorrow though, that is what the Baltimore Ravens have. The Ravens get a second chance to end a Pittsburgh Steelers season, while advancing to continue to chase hardware of their own.

I know that many in Baltimore wanted no part of having to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a post-season birth possibly at play. To me though, I like the idea of tomorrow again being about legacies, drama, and redemption. Or perhaps even more to the point, I like the comparison of tomorrow to the kid’s game of ‘King of the Hill.’ The Cincinnati Bengals might win the AFC North, but the Steelers are the defending Super Bowl Champion until someone puts a stake through their heart. As such, they remain the ‘man’ in my eyes. To be the man, you have to beat the man.

Things to watch:

1) Ed Reed, Jared Gaither, and Tavares Gooden are each listed as doubtful. Do any of them play? While Michael Oher certainly has played well at LT, I am one who believes the Ravens will be misguided if they do not do everything in their power to extend Gaither. Gaither might in his 3rd year, while Oher is a rookie; but they are both just 23. I think Oher is more polished, but personally believe Gaither has greater upside. Regardless of whom is at LT for the Ravens tomorrow, I look for them to have trouble dealing with crowd noise. Look for a couple of false-starts, particularly if they are doing more pass-blocking than they should have to.

2) Joe Flacco was 13 for 30, 141 yards, and 3 picks in the AFC Championship Game. Even though, Flacco put up 289 yards, on the Steelers in Baltimore in the November game; I think Flacco would still feel redemption is needed in Pittsburgh. I think there is going to be a tremendous internal desire from Flacco to place the offense on his shoulders. Jamison Hensley of The Baltimore Sun reminds that the Steelers have allowed 263.6 yards per game passing ,with 9 TD’s, and zero interceptions during the past 5 games. I personally feel it will be a mistake if Flacco makes 30 pass-attempts tomorrow.

2a) The best defense is an offense that controls the clock. Whether that occurs with short-passes, or through ground-control; the desire is the same. Move the chains, and keep the opposition on the bench. If Roethlisberger is on the sideline, he can not hurt you.

2b) McClain played the AFC Championship with a badly hurt ankle. Him, and McGahee are obviously healthy and fresh for the game tomorrow. I think using these two in regular conjunction with Rice, gives the Ravens their best opportunity to win tomorrow.

3) Despite the success of Santonio Holmes in the Conference Championship, and the Super Bowl; I went into this season believing Mark Clayton was pretty similar. Holmes had averaged 16.6 yards receiving for his career, while Clayton averaged 17 yards per reception in 2008. Clayton is 5’10, 195lb while Holmes is 5’11 192. This season, Clayton has just 33 receptions at a 14.3 yard per catch average, while Holmes has 73 catches at a 15.8 yard per catch average. I do think they remain fairly similar players in-terms of skill-set, but utilized differently, in offenses that also have differences.

In Baltimore, Clayton tore Pittsburgh up for 7 catches and 129 yards. Holmes also was a factor, with 7 catches 74 yards, and a score. Clayton is questionable for tomorrow, which likely means his day will be spent on the sideline.

The Ravens will want to take their chances down the field like they did with Clayton in the 1st game, and that means Demetrius Williams is going to have an opportunity to make some plays.

Whichever team (Pittsburgh with Holmes, or Baltimore with Williams) has their player win that individual production battle; will likely have a large say in which team proves victorious.

3a) Another production battle I will watch is at TE with Heath Miller, and Todd Heap. They both represent mismatches which can be taken advantage of in the Red Zone. In the first-game this year, Miller and Heap combined for 2 catches for 7 yards. Perhaps that was because they were both chained to the offensive-line, helping to block? Regardless, I do not see that minimal production happening again.

4) The Steelers signed LT Max Starks, and LG Chris Kemoeatu to 4 and 5 year deals prior to the season. Pittsburgh has also stated numerous times they believe Willie Colon is the best RT in football. Despite that security with their Offensive-line, the Steelers have allowed the 4th most sacks (43) of any team in the league. You have to believe that is because Roethlisberger is always trying to extend plays, and take chances down the field on his roll-outs. Any time you line-up against Pittsburgh, it is important to keep containment, and wrap Roethlisberger up if you get him in your hands. If the Ravens miss tackles, Roethlisberger will make them pay.

5) Again, I believe whomever is at LT for the Ravens (Oher or Gaither) is going to have trouble with crowd noise. That will also be true at RT with either Oher or Cousins. Outside of the crowd noise, the toughest match-up for the Tackles will not be LDE Travis Kirschke, or RDE Brett Keisel; but LOLB LaMarr Woodley, and ROLB James Harrison.

5a) Can the Baltimore OLB’s Johnson, Suggs (along with Barnes, and Kruger) make their presence felt tomorrow?

6) As I wrote the other day, if Chris Carr is starting for you at CB; he can not be also put in-position of returning kicks and punts. Same thing for Zbikowski if he has to again start for Reed. So who steps-up? Jalen Parmele? Justin Harper? Cary Williams?

7) What about the rest of Special Teams? Long-snapper Matt Katula might not be able to play. Will that hurt Baltimore? Koch and Sepulveda are basically a wash at Punter. Give Reed the home-field advantage over Cundiff in a stadium known for tough conditions for Field Goal kickers.

8) How about the match-up at Head Coach? In a preview of this season I wrote the following:

“Harbaugh completed his first-year in the league, leading the Ravens to an 11-5 Regular-Season record, and 2 post-season wins. Tomlin capped off his second-year in the league with his second AFC North Title, and the Lombardi Trophy. Both are younger guys (Harbaugh 46, Tomlin 37), that have mirrored styles. They want to play physically, and mentally tough football. Both retained coaches from the prior coaching-staffs upon taking the job. With the success they have already had, both are secure in their positions for the forseeable future. I am interested to see how both Coaches respond, when they go through some adversity. When things do not go right, do they change their approach with the press? Do they lose parts of the locker-room? Having established their-selves, will we see additional aspects of their personalities emerge? I think this is basically even, but they matched-up 3 times last year, and Tomlin won all 3.”

Harbaugh put up his first win in this series in November, and can pull closer to even with a win tomorrow.

9) Who wins on 3rd-down? A large reason why the Steelers won that game last January, is what they were able to accomplish on 3rd and long. Does history repeat?

Prediction:

I am still waffling as game-time approaches. I really do not have a great handle on how things will play out. My sense all week has been a close game (27-24) that Pittsburgh finds a way to win at home. Playing things out, I have thought about the Ravens needing OT to beat a Steelers team that was missing Big Ben, Kemoeatu, and Troy P. Polamalu will again miss tomorrow, but the other two return. Roethlisberger might run himself into sacks, but Baltimore has had a poor pass-rush all season. If Roethlisberger can extend plays, the Ravens do not have pressure, and Webb is out; the concerns are pretty obvious.

Still, as the game nears, I get the sense the Ravens are going to find a way to claim the redemption they seek.

I am going with 24-20 Baltimore, in a game that leaves both teams bruised and battered.

EDIT: Kemoeatu is now out of this game, and James Harrison might be as well. Mark Clayton now expected to return, but it is unclear if he will be limited.