Reflecting on the First Half of the Orioles’ Season & The Path to the Trade Deadline

With the trade deadline now just 10 days away, the Orioles sit at 44-54, 8.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race. Between now and then, the O’s have a 4-game series against the Cleveland Guardians (48-50), a 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies (24-75), and a 3-game series against the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays (58-41).

In a best-case scenario, the Orioles go 4-2 in the combined six games against Cleveland and Toronto (and even that feels optimistic) and sweep the historically bad Colorado Rockies. This would put them at 51-56 at the deadline. From there, to reach the 86-win total of last year’s 3rd AL Wild Card team, they would need to finish the season 35-20 — not to mention they currently have the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule in MLB. FanGraphs projects their playoff odds at just 1.6%.

In other words, we can hope and pray for a magical run, but there just isn’t a reasonable path for the 2025 Orioles to make a legitimate playoff push.

Despite some promising moments, this season has mostly reinforced an uncomfortable truth: when a team with questionable starting pitching depth suffers one of the more injury-plagued seasons in recent memory, the results are rarely good. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Orioles rank second in MLB in percentage of projected WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) lost to injury this season. It’s no surprise — Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Tyler Wells have yet to pitch, Zach Eflin and Cade Povich are currently injured, and essentially every player in the Orioles’ starting lineup outside of Jackson Holliday has missed time this season (Cowser, Westburg, Henderson, Rutschman, to name a few).

So the question becomes: Where do they go from here?

I believe two things to be true: 1. It does not benefit the Orioles to hold on to players with expiring contracts for the remainder of this season — they should be sellers at the deadline. 2. The Orioles have the talent to compete in 2026 and should make necessary moves this offseason to do so.

It’s worth noting that the Orioles’ recent trade of Bryan Baker to the Rays for the No. 37 pick in the draft was a clear sign they intend to sell veterans for younger assets.

Focusing on the Deadline: Players Most Likely to Be Dealt

Ryan O’Hearn (~80%)

Currently on 1-Year, $8M deal.

Unfortunately for O’s fans, O’Hearn has likely played his way out of Baltimore with his strong first half. He’s slashing .282/.379/.450 with a 135 OPS+ and would be a valuable addition for any contender looking to add offense, particularly a left-handed bat.

Best Fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres

Zach Eflin (~80%)

Final year of 3-Year, $40M contract. Despite recent struggles and injury issues, Eflin is probably still the most valuable of the Orioles’ starters available at the deadline. Other teams surely remember the impact Eflin had on the Orioles’ 2024 season after being acquired from the Rays.Teams vying for playoff runs that don’t necessarily need an immediate impact player right now, but are looking for someone that could be impactful down the stretch, could be particularly interested in Eflin. The San Francisco Giants, as an example, are a team that could be interested in having Eflin join the likes of Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros

Charlie Morton (~70%)

Currently on a 1-Year, $15M deal. Morton has turned his season around, pitching to a 3.09 ERA over his last 59 innings. He’s the classic back-end starter that contenders covet for stability down the stretch.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets

Tomoyuki Sugano (~60%)

Currently on a 1-Year, $13M deal Similar to Morton, Sugano offers veteran depth as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Best Fits: Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox

Gregory Soto / Seranthony Dominguez (~60%)

Both on 1-year contracts Soto and Dominguez offer similar value to contenders: experienced relievers with solid 2025 campaigns (3.67 ERA for Soto, 3.72 ERA for Dominguez). Both have closing and high-leverage experience that becomes especially valuable in October.

Best Fits: New York Mets, Detroit Tigers

Cedric Mullins (~50%)

Currently on a 1-Year, $8.725M deal Certainly the hardest name to include here. It’s impossible not to reflect on the great moments Mullins has provided Orioles fans — often the lone bright spot during the many years of losing. I’m slightly lower than consensus on the odds he’s traded, putting it around 50/50. Maybe that’s my Orioles fandom talking, but it’s hard to envision the Orioles dealing him in the next 10 days. That said, it makes sense to move him despite a mediocre offensive season. His defensive ability and speed could help a contender in the season’s final months.

Best Fits: Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, San Diego Padres

Félix Bautista (~10%)

Currently on a 2-Year, $2M deal (arb-eligible 2026, 2027) Bautista is the Orioles’ most valuable asset on this list, with two more years of club control. In short, I don’t see the O’s moving him. If Baltimore is serious about contending in 2026 (which they should be), Bautista needs to be part of it. Unless a team dramatically overpays, I expect him to stay.

Best Fits: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies

While this isn’t the article I hoped to write at this time of year, seasons like this happen. There’s nothing fans can do but wait for the next one. Orioles fans will now be watching to see if the front office maximizes returns for these veterans — and whether management takes the necessary steps to build a 2026 contender around this undeniably talented young core.