I wrote earlier in the month that it’s my expectation that Anthony Santander has played his last game for the Orioles, and that Ryan Mountcastle will be traded this offseason.
I added that I anticipate that Heston Kjerstad will replace Santander as the O’s RF, and that Coby Mayo will take over at 1st.
We will see how things play out.
Maybe I have it wrong.
Maybe Santander will get an extension.
Maybe the O’s will dangle Mayo in the trade market instead of Mountcastle; knowing that Mayo would demand a larger return.
We’ll see.
We know what happens when you assume, but let’s assume I have this read right.
Why would this be the course of action for the O’s, and what would be the questions to ask?
Why Not Extend Santander?
I’m not totally opposed to extending Santander.
There is certainly a viable argument for doing so.
In the 2022-24 seasons, he’s played at-least 152 games each year.
In those seasons, he’s averaged 35 homers, and 30 doubles.
He had a .773 OPS in 2022, a .797 OPS in 2023, and a .814 OPS in 2024 (.776 OPS for his career).
In ’24, the switch-hitter had a .793 OPS vs. LHP, and a .822 OPS vs. RHP.
The analytics grade him as a below average defensive RF, but he’s not a massive liability.
So, you’ve got a guy that shows up to play most days, and hits
He’s productive against both righties and lefties.
His ’24 season was a career year, but his career averages are good.
You generally know what to expect from him, and that has value.
Those are all reasonable points to make if you are in favor of an extension.
I don’t see an extension happening for several reasons.
He’s not old, but he did turn 30 today.
The O’s would likely want a 3-4 deal.
As a Free Agent, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find someone willing to give him 5 years.
Even if you grade his current defense as adequate, that’s not going to improve as he ages.
Some will counter with, “Well, he could get more time at DH.”
That doesn’t really work with the Orioles, as the O’s want Rutschman getting regular time at DH when he’s not behind the plate.
The number I’d point to above is Santander’s .776 career OPS.
If you are talking about what to expect from Santander going forward, I think you start there as opposed to .814 OPS in ’24.
And then you tack on normal age regression for what would be the duration of the contract.
Can Kjerstad Approximate Santander’s Career Averages?
I don’t think it’s realistic to ask Kjerstad to match Santander’s 2024 in 2025.
I think Kjerstad could approximate Santander’s career averages.
Kjerstad will be turning 26 in February.
In ’24,the former 1st round pick had 213 ab’s at AAA Norfolk.
With the Tides, he slashed .301 / .397 / .601 (.998 OPS).
In the Majors, he had another 99 ab’s, and had a .745 OPS.
If there’s an argument for him not being in the ballpark of Santander’s career averages, I don’t see it.
What’s The Argument For Trading Mountcastle?
The 1st baseman turns 28 in February.
He’s not a Free Agent until after the 2026 season.
Some make a big deal of him being robbed more than any other O’s player by ‘Waltimore.’
Part of that argument points to his .733 OPS in 2024.
I think that only tells you so much with Mountcastle.
He had a .796 OPS in 2021.
That was followed by a .729 OPS in 2022.
Then he had .779 OPS in 2023.
He’s at .766 for his career.
Overall we have seen he’s capable of months where he’s scorching and can carry the team.
We’ve also seen he’s capable of stretches where he can’t touch anything.
Some years will look up, some years will look down.
His walk % dropped considerably in ’24. (5.3% vs. 7.9% in ’23, and 6.9% for his career.)
That’s a little concerning, but maybe just an aberration?
’24 felt like a down year for Ryan, but he still had a lot of red on his Baseball Savant page.
Basically when he makes contact, he barrels, and hits balls hard.
You’ll also notice on his Savant page he grades as an above average defensive 1st baseman.
Lastly it should be pointed out that he torched LHP in 2023, and was above average against LHP in 2024.
He’s a productive player overall, and he could be a piece of a Championship team.
So why trade him?
I think it mainly boils down him to having the 2 years of remaining team control, and because the O’s are positioned to replace him internally.
Can Mayo Approximate Mountcastle’s Career Averages?
Mayo turns 23 in December.
In ’24, Mayo had 345 ab’s at AAA Norfolk.
With the Tides, he slashed .287 / .364 / .562 (.964 OPS).
In the Majors, he was 4 for 41.
He’s one of the elite prospects in the game.
He’s got power from foul pole to foul pole.
I never saw a Mayo at-bat until he reached the Majors.
And my initial impression was that I didn’t love the set up.
He was also just stiffer, and less fluid vs what i expected.
He wasn’t good at covering the plate either.
I’m sure he will look better next year.
I’m sure he will be a productive Major Leaguer with a chance to be very good.
I think some O’s fans would vote to trade Mayo now, with it being perceived he’s as valuable as he is going to be (maybe aided with skepticism of what’s he’s going to become).
For me, you absolutely still want all of his years of control.
I assume with his excess power he will use the whole field and we will see him get lots of opposite field extra base hits.
Most of all, you just can’t make too big of a deal over 41 at-bats.
There’s nothing left for him to prove at AAA.
The Majors are always going to be adjustment, whenever you bring him up for good.
If he’s starting everyday in ’25, there will probably be times he looks like a Rookie and struggles.
What I’ll be looking for is month-to-month progression.
With his power, he’s going to easily hit 20 homers if he gets a full season of at-bats.
Being at 1st base doesn’t take advantage of his strong arm, but it should also help him mentally as he transitions to the bigs.
I’m not saying there is no preparation needed for him to be a viable ML 1st baseman, but it’s not 3rd.
He can largely just focus on his bat.
I would think there is a good chance that in ’25 Mayo could exceed Mountcastle’s ’24 production.
What’s The Best Course Of Action?
It’s interesting to see what the O’s do here.
When you have success, it’s often hard to walk away from something that is working.
The O’s don’t get to decide if Santander returns, but they could make an offer that would make it hard for him to leave.
The O’s could decide to go with ‘known quantities’, and maybe that would be the better course of action for ’25, when the O’s will be attempting to reach the postseason for the 3rd consecutive season (and this time do something once there).
I can think that Kjerstad and Mayo can do a good job approximating the expected production of Santander and Mountcastle; but that’s to be determined.
I can admit that there is risk there.
There would also be risk with extending Santander.
Historically, I feel like I’ve been a bigger Santander and Mountcastle fan than most O’s fans.
I appreciate them both.
That said, my vote would be to go with the kids.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.