Santander Showing Signs

The 2020 season will be remembered for many things. That goes for some many things beyond Covid. For the Baltimore Orioles, it may be remembered for a group of over achieving castoffs from other organizations making a playoff run. But, it could be remembered for something far more important to the organization.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

It could be the season that is long remembered for the emergence of Anthony Santander.

But, more on him in a bit.

One of the most beautiful things about baseball is that there is no singular path to becoming a star player. Because of the nature of the sport, players mature at different times and in vastly different ways. One thing that most players have in common is that there is usually a period of failure, especially during a first taste of Major League competition.

A Juan Soto or Fernando Tatis Jr. is quite rare. Even a Nick Markakis is rare. Most players, even the best ones in the sport, have an adjustment period. There are some that seemingly hit the Majors and are ready, but they are rare despite the fact that we drool over prospects and how they will immediately make teams better. Many Orioles’ fans feel that way about Ryan Mountcastle. While there is no legitimate reason, at least on the surface, as to why he isn’t in the Major Leagues, the likelihood is that he will struggle at the onset.

Nobody remembers Mike Trout’s debut in 2011 where he slashed .220/.281/.390 in 135 plate appearances. He would then, of course, become the best player in the sport just a year later. Everyone forgets Barry Bonds’ rookie year of 1986 when he hit .223/.330/.416 in 484 plate appearances. It took him four more seasons to fully mature into his Major League stardom with the Pirates.

Everyone’s path is different.

But, this thought has nothing to do with Ryan Mountcastle. It is really about what is looking like a breakout season for Anthony Santander. While the focus of Orioles fans and even analysts is the young prospects yet to make their debuts and the hope of great things to come three seasons from now, Santander is quietly showing signs of developing into an above average Major Leaguer. More importantly, he is looking like he could be a key piece to a contending team.

Everyone’s path is different, but Santander’s is much more than just different.

Signed as a 17 year old by the Cleveland Indians, Santander struggled early in his professional career. At the age of 19, his third season in professional baseball and second at single-A, he hit just .184/.260/.270. Two seasons later, at the age of 21, he had a breakout season at high-A ball, slashing .290/.368/.494 with 42 doubles, 20 home runs, and 10 stolen bases. He looked to finally be on the path the ascending up the Minor League system.

A funny thing happened to that projected development.

The Orioles took Santander in the Rule 5 draft before the 2017 season. Essentially, that 2017 was a lost developmental year for him as he had just 31 plate appearances at the Major League level and just 64 in the Minors. He was finally able to play at double-A and triple-A in 2018, but did not produce (.249/.287/.416). At that point, he was a 23 year old without any real track record of Minor League success. Yes, 23 years old is still young, but without much of a track record, there were really no signs of, well, anything.

Even last season, he performed quite poorly at Triple-A, hitting .259/.311/.415 in 48 games. But, he showed promise in his 93 games at the Major League level, hitting 20 home runs and adding 20 doubles in 405 plate appearances.

Finally, we had a sign.

But, we’ve seen players play well for a half a season or so and then completely fall apart the following season. Hitting 20 home runs is one thing, but could Anthony Santander show tangible development this season, even in the truncated 60 game schedule?

Entering his age 25 season, Santander is looking to build off of those power numbers from a season ago. Thus far, he is showing real signs of improvement. And, if looked at fairly, he is putting himself into the conversation of being a key part of a good team.

It’s easy to look his his overall numbers and say he’s developing quite rapidly from last year. Through his first 24 games, he is batting .299/.346/.701 with 10 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, and a Major League leading 25 RBI.

The surface numbers are tremendous, but the process behind those numbers are even more encouraging. While he has never show a propensity for taking a walk, his 5.8 percent walk rate is up from last year. His 11.5 percent strikeout rate is far better than his 21.2 percent rate from last season and is much better than the 23.4 percent Major League average. With that improved strikeout rate has come with better contact. His line drive percentage is 28.6 percent, while his roundball rate has decreased to 26.2 percent. That’s equated to 85.9 percent of his hits classified as either medium or hard contact, a five percent increase over last season.

Perhaps even more encouraging his spray chart. Last year, he pulled 46 percent of his batted balls, hit 30.2 percent up the middle, and 23.8 percent to the opposite field. This year, he’s pulled 36.5 percent and has hit the opposite field 30.6 percent. He is demonstrating a growing ability of using the opposite field. While he is still a player who swings more than the league average, he is swinging at strikes at a much higher rate than last season (78.9 percent compared to 68.5 percent).

Add to that promising change in offensive process his elite defense as a right fielder and you have a complete player who, at worst, can be an above average regular. And, if he continues to develop at the rate he is this season, the Orioles could have a consistent All-Star for quite some time. And, they could have a player who could be a core member of their next competitive team.

This is where the questions start to come into play. The obvious one is to wonder whether or not this is just a hot stretch in a short period of time. Normally, we throw out the term “small sample size” in cases where we are analyzing 24 games worth of data. So, yes, it will be interesting if he can maintain his change of process, but it’s there. It isn’t a result of luck. He is, without question, doing things differently.

Then, of course, there is the age factor. Santander turns 26 in October. He hasn’t played a full season at the Major League level. He is in the beginning of his prime right now and lacks the experience of a full Minor League development and full Major League experience. But, the age question goes beyond the experience.

Let’s say that Santander continues this develop and becomes an All-Star and someone who sneaks into the MVP voting over the next few seasons. Not a certainty, but let’s play this through.

He is under team control until after the 2024 season. He will hit the free agent market as a 30 year old. Is that the type of player the Orioles want to commit to with their hopes of fielding this young, competitive roster built around Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Heston Kjerstad? With arbitration over the next four seasons, are the Orioles willing to pay up?

But, these are fun questions to ask. They are even more fun because we are watching a player who, despite a lack of developmental opportunity, is figuring it out and improving.

The path is most definitely different. There isn’t a Minor League track record to base anything on. Yet, there appears quite reasonable to believe that Anthony Santander will continue to develop into an All-Star caliber player. It’ll be fun to watch just how high his ceiling is.

20.5

It’s amazing a difference a week can make. Despite being 12-13 now, the Orioles are still in the playoff hunt, but, more importantly, just 9 wins away from beating the odds. I still like their chances.

Hanser Keeps Hitting

Even in a down week, Alberto batted .290/.324/.387 with 3 doubles from August 12th through the 19th. The 10 strikeouts were alarming, but that didn’t stop him from getting a hit in five of the seven games.