Scouting Maryland’s Round of 32 Matchup Vs. Alabama

So you pulled off the first-round upset over UConn. Congratulations, Terps. Your reward? A date in the Round of 32 with No. 2 seed Alabama — the SEC regular season and postseason champions.

Led by former Buffalo head coach Nate Oats, the Crimson Tide has a top 40 offense while boasting the nation’s No. 2-most efficient defense according to KenPom.

But the tough matchup isn’t as bad as it sounds for No. 10 seed Maryland. In fact, I think there is a path to victory for the Terps.

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Not only is Alabama known for its defense, it’s also notorious for playing at one of the fastest paces in the country (9th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom). It’s no secret what Oats & Co. want to do. Knowing that, the question is: Can the Terps make them abandon that game plan?

Now, in the first round, Maryland didn’t have to worry about doing that because it played a team in UConn that wanted to play at a slow, methodical pace just like the Terps (both teams rank 307th or lower in adjusted tempo). Still, Mark Turgeon’s team put on a defensive clinic and rotated positions on that end of the floor seamlessly to stifle anything the Huskies wanted to do on offense.

If Turgeon can get his guys to play disciplined and tough, while keeping the game at a plodding, ugly, grind-it-out pace, the Terps have a shot at pulling off one of the tournament’s biggest upsets.

But understanding that and executing it are two different things. Maryland’s leaders Darryl Morsell, Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, and Donta Scott all need to bring their A-game against an equally gritty SEC team that has won its last seven games.

The Crimson Tide’s offense is built on four double-digit scorers led by sophomore guard Jaden Shackelford. Fellow sophomore guard and Villanova transfer, Jahvon Quinerly, averages 12.6 points per game, while seniors John Petty Jr., and Herbert Jones average 12.2 and 11.5 points, respectively.

Despite being third and fourth in the scoring pecking order, Petty and Jones might need to be Maryland’s biggest concern because of their versatility and what they can do at both ends of the floor.

Petty is a long, physical two-guard who can lock down on any of Maryland’s guards on the defensive end and also get buckets when needed. Jones can play almost any position and is even longer and more physical as a defender. He’ll give the Terps’ wings and frontcourt all they can handle.

Jones might be college basketball’s most versatile player. He can score, but he also leads the Crimson Tide in rebounds (6.5) and assists (3.4) per game. He’s as efficient as you could as for as a shooter too, averaging 44.4% from the field, 73.6% from the line, and 37.7% from three.

Speaking of three-point shooting percentage, THAT is where Maryland needs to be most concerned and alert in this game.

As a team, the Crimson Tide shoot 35% from deep. Bama has six players that play at least 15 minutes per game and shoot over 33% from three. One of those players — freshman guard Josh Primo — will likely still be sidelined for this game with a leg injury, however, he is said to be day-to-day and has not been ruled out as of this writing.

Alabama scores nearly 40% of its points of threes, which is 16th-most in the nation. They don’t take many twos and aren’t adept at getting to the line.

That could spell trouble for the Terps, who have been good this year at guarding two-point field goals (34th in the country) , but usually struggle to guard the perimeter (196th in the country).

But off shooting nights happen to every team, despite what the opposing defense may or may not be doing. Alabama has been scorching hot, but struggled from deep in its opening-round matchup with No. 15 seed Iona. It wasn’t until the Crimson Tide abandoned the three and started slashing to the basket that their fortune began to turn.

If Alabama’s shooting struggles continue against Maryland, getting to the rim won’t be nearly as easy, especially with a motivated former Crimson Tide forward Galin Smith manning the post for the Terps.

Maryland needs to make this game as ugly as possible, plain and simple. Slow things down, don’t allow any easy shots, and show all kinds of defensive looks and offensive sets. In other words, throw the kitchen sink at them.

Get Alabama to lose confidence in its outside shot and this game will be much closer than many think.

This isn’t exactly the Maryland team that we thought might get Turgeon to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016, but it’s the one with a shot thanks to a very gritty performance against a UConn team that was also red hot coming in.

The Terps seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder because no one seems to think they can do much of anything in this tournament. Well, beating the No. 2 seed in your region is making a statement and is a good way to build momentum for a Final Four run.

It seems like every year there’s a double-digit seed that makes a run to the Sweet 16 or beyond. There are a handful of candidates this year. But why not Maryland?