September Arrives

Twenty-five games left.

Entering tonight in Colorado, the Orioles are 68-69, 4th in the AL East, and one game behind Cleveland for the 3rd Wild Card.

One game under .500 for the first time since April 30th.

Seven wins in their last nine. 5-1 on the road trip with three to play in Denver.

Baseball Reference now puts their post-season odds at 23%. FanGraphs has their odds at 21%.

On August 4th, the day after the Deadline, the FanGraphs projection was 12%.

SI’s betting roundup had the O’s as the biggest mover in the league last week, from +500 to +310 to reach October.

They’re 16th in the Power Rankings at CBS Sports, 14th at MLB.com, and 14th at FanGraphs.

The Schedule

The remaining schedule is:

• 8/31 – 9/2 at Colorado
• 9/3 – 9/6 vs. Boston
• 9/7 – 9/9 vs. Cleveland
• 9/11 – 9/13 at Toronto
• 9/14 – 9/16 at the Mets
• 9/18 – 9/20 vs. Milwaukee
• 9/21 – 9/23 vs. Toronto
• 9/25 – 9/27 at the Yankees

Sixteen of the 25 come against the AL East or Cleveland. Thirteen at home, twelve on the road.

Six games come against Colorado (52-85) and the Mets (61-76), who are the two worst teams they’ll see.

Three come against Milwaukee, who at 85-52 has the best record in baseball.

And six against Toronto, who at 68-70 is a half-game behind the O’s and chasing the same spot.

The Cleveland series, September 7th-9th at Camden Yards, is also circled. Three games, head-to-head, against the team directly in front of you.

There is no version of this where the O’s back into the playoffs.

If they reach the post-season, they’ll have earned it – even with the AL being down as a whole.

Walking Some Thoughts Back

On August 3rd I wrote a piece with the headline “Yeah, Time For Elias To Go.”

I’ll take some of that back.

I try not to be hyperbolic, the headline was.

What I wrote at the time was that I could make a logical argument for each move individually and still didn’t like the decision-making collectively.
That I could see the O’s still make the post-season, and if that happened – I’d be irritated to not have Rutschman, Wells, Kremer, Ward available.

My thought was that I would have preferred Elias to add along the fringes, and let that group play out the year.

I did acknowledge that Elias had extracted value in the trades, particularly for Rutschman.

But I said the fanbase wouldn’t get over it, and I said the man should lose his job over it. Four weeks later, the team is 14-11 since, they’ve climbed from four games under to one, and their odds have roughly doubled.

A month later, I have to plainly acknowledge Elias largely made the right call.

And the returns look better with a month of distance. Per MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s updated Top 10, Anthony Eyanson is now the #2 prospect in the system, Enddy Azocar #4, Michael Forret #9. Kyson Witherspoon, also from the Rutschman deal, just missed, as did 2025 college picks Caden Hunter and JT Quinn. Eric Booth Jr. sits atop the list.

Add Joseph Dzierwa, Nate George, Ike Irish, Boston Bateman, Wehiwa Aloy, and Trey Gibson, and this is a genuinely deep system again. Not overwhelming at the very top. But deep, with real pitching, which the O’s have never had this much of at once under Elias.

Ward finished his Orioles season with 2.7 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR. By bWAR, he’s still has the 2nd highest total  on the team.
Rutschman had 1.9 bWAR, and 2.4 fWAR in 67 games.
Wells had a 2.67 ERA out of the pen.

Those were real players and the O’s gave them away in a season they’re now one game out.
So no, I’m not declaring the Deadline a masterstroke.

But calling for the man’s job was too far, and I said it too fast.

If they get in, the correct read is they fortified the systems, and got to October. That would be a hell of a month’s work.

Most Valuable Oriole: Alonso, And Then?

Pete Alonso is the MVO and it isn’t close.

.270/.360/.503, 32 homers, 91 RBI, a 143 OPS+, 4.0 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR, and he’s played all 137 games. On a club that ranks 17th in slugging, he is the slugging.
He has been every bit of what they paid for.

Second is the interesting question.

The bWAR board, among players still in the building:

• Gunnar Henderson  – 2.5
• Brandon Young – 2.1
• Colton Cowser  – 1.9
• Samuel Basallo – 1.6
• Shane Baz – 1.5
• Blaze Alexander -1.3

The fWAR board:

• Shane Baz – 3.4
• Gunnar Henderson – 3.1
• Trevor Rogers – 2.7
• Kyle Bradish – 1.9
• Colton Cowser – 1.7
• Brandon Young – 1.5
• Blaze Alexander – 1.4

Henderson leads it, and I understand why. He’s played 136 games, taken 610 plate appearances, held down shortstop, and hit 22 homers.

But a .223 average and a .307 on-base from a player we expected to be a top-five position player in the sport is a disappointing season to-date, and if voting today – I’d have a hard time placing him 2nd.

Truth be told, Henderson is probably the correct choice.

Still, I’d like to highlight Young and Alexander.

I don’t think either are better or ‘more valuable’ than Henderson obviously; but this year goes completely sideways without their production.

Young is 9-3, 3.38, a 122 ERA+ over 130.1 innings, on a staff that ranks 19th in ERA and lost Zach Eflin and Keegan Akin to Tommy John, traded Kremer, and has watched Chris Bassitt post a 4.97. Young came into 2026 with no guaranteed rotation spot. He’s been regularly dependable, and that consistency means so much.

The fair counter is his 4.30 FIP, which says some regression is owed. Noted.

It’s been great seeing Alexander get back after the fracture in his left hand. He’s hit .309/.363/.430 with a 126 OPS+ in 84 games while starting at six different positions.

 

Robert Jr., Platoons, And Alignments

Monday the O’s claimed Luis Robert Jr. off outright waivers from the Mets. They owe roughly $3M the rest of the way, with a $20M team option for 2027 that carries a $2M buyout. Because he joined before September 1st, he’s post-season eligible.

He hit .223 with 10 homers and a .702 OPS in 58 games for New York, and missed April 27th through July 20th with a herniated lumbar disc.
He’s got an .841 OPS over his last 30 games, and 75 ab’s.
He’s got elite speed, and a strong arm.
He’s good in CF, previously grading strong.
Him being available for CF, allows you to play Cowser in left and upgrade two spots.

At the Trade Deadline I talked about wanting the O’s to improve on the fringes.
One of the things I mentioned was a better defensive OF.
Here they got a viable option for just money. That’s a win.

With Tyler O’Neill on the IL (retroactive to August 23rd) with a shoulder, the O’s outfield was Cowser (L), Beavers (L), and Taveras (S). Against left-handed pitching that’s a real hole, and Robert is a right-handed bat who won a Gold Glove in center in 2020.

I’m interested to see how playing time shakes out in September.

Clearly Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand have to play every game vs. lefties given how their crushing southpaws.

Taveras probably doesn’t get anymore ab’s vs. LHP (.518 OPS as a RHH).

As we just said above, Robert in CF pushes Coswer to LF.   Cowser has been excellent in CF this year, but was even better in LF in ’24.

Jackson Holliday has been ice cold  (.494 OPS) over his last 104 ab’s. He actually has a higher OPS vs. LHP right now.

Alexander has a .873 OPS vs. RHP.  Got to get him ab’s, and see if he can pick-up where he was before the injury. His positional availability gives Albernaz some flexibility.

How many games can Basallo catch?   Carlos Narvaez is excellent defensively, but he’s really struggling offensively.

Beavers had a nice August offensively. Going into tonight, he’s had a .816 OPS over 69 ab’s.

The Bullpen

I like what has been pieced together here.

Yennier Cano has been the quietly excellent one. 3.07 ERA, a 2.38 FIP, and exactly one home run allowed in 44 innings across 59 appearances. He picked up his third save Sunday.

Rico Garcia has been the workhorse. 64 games, 3.26, a 0.966 WHIP, 59 strikeouts in 58 innings. After allowing 8 homers over June and July, he hasn’t allowed a big fly in August.

Grant Wolfram has a 5.05 ERA and a 3.16 FIP with 9.9 K/9. The results should have been better than they’ve been.

Josh Walker (2.33), Cam Sanders (3.46), and Alex Hoppe (no earned runs in 8.2 innings, acquired in the Rutschman deal) round it out. Cade Povich was recalled Monday to start, and he’s another long-man option.

Andrew Kittredge has eight saves and a 3.19 ERA, but a 3.74 FIP and -0.2 bWAR.  Despite that, he’s been strong since the calendar turned to June. I’d still rather have him in the 8th vs. the 9th.

Ryan Helsley hasn’t pitched since June 27th with elbow inflammation and has only recently progressed to bullpen sessions. Plan on nothing, but he’s still hopeful he can return before the year ends. That would be a bonus.

And then there’s the one that matters.

Félix Bautista is three rehab outings into his return from the August 2025 surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff. The first, at Double-A Chesapeake, was ugly: one out, three runs, three walks, though the fastball hit 97. The second at Norfolk was a clean inning. The third was a scoreless sixth against Durham with one single, no walks, a strikeout, and a sinker that topped at 97.6.

You are looking to see if he can throw strikes consistently.
At some-point maybe you give him outings on back-to-back days and see how he responds.
Like Helsley, you don’t count on his return, but it’s fun to think about as a possibility.

Things To Watch

Who closes? See above. Albernaz has used five different guys for saves.

Does Bassitt keep his rotation spot? A 4.97 ERA and a 1.582 WHIP, five runs allowed Sunday, and Povich just got recalled after a 5.2-inning, 11-strikeout start at Norfolk. That’s a live question in a race. I’d defer to the experience – probably.

Does Holliday finish? As we said above, Holliday has been freezing the last month. That was after a strong July.  Does he turn things around in September?

Does Basallo get hot?  He’s got the talent to be a difference maker.

Adley comes home. Boston is at Camden Yards Thursday through Sunday. That’s going to be a strange four days, and the crowd reaction will tell you something about where the fanbase actually landed on all this. The fact that he’s got a .500 OPS in 53 ab’s with Boston vs hitting the ground running there makes it easier.

And on September 19th, Trey Mancini signs a one-day contract and retires as an Oriole before the Milwaukee game. Whatever happens in the standings, go to that one.

They Reach October If…

Henderson finishes with a flurry.

This is the whole thing. He hit two off Jeffrey Springs on Sunday, added a run-scoring triple, and tied his career high with five RBI. He’s at 22 homers with a 102 OPS+ in a season that has been a genuine disappointment.

He doesn’t need to be the 2024 version for six months. He needs to be that guy for 25 games. A .900-OPS September from Henderson is worth two or three wins by itself in a race decided by one, and it changes the entire complexion of a lineup that ranks 9th in runs but only 17th in slugging.

If Gunnar goes off, the O’s are in. I believe that more than anything else on this list.

They take care of Colorado and the Mets.

Six games against 52-85 and 61-76. Go 5-1 and you’ve bought yourself the margin to split with Boston and Toronto. Go 3-3 and you’re going to need help you won’t get.

They win the Cleveland series.

September 7th-9th, at home, against another team in the mix.

Bautista gets back and gets the ninth.

Maybe I’m dreaming here. But if the O’s get him back, and he’s able to factor in leverage situations, that’s significant.

Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand keep hammering left-handers, and Albernaz uses them accordingly.

The platoon edges are the cheapest wins available to this team, and they’re sitting right there. Mayo has an .878 OPS since July. Play the matchups every night.

Bradish and Rogers finish strong.

If Gunnar finishing strong is #1 on my list, how Bradish and Rogers finish is 2 and 3.
Bradish had a 5.40 era over 5 starts in August.  We wondered if the lack of innings the last 2 years would catch-up with him.
Rogers had a 4.82 era over his 5 starts in August.
The O’s don’t reach October if these two aren’t better in September.

Twenty-five games. One game back. Sixteen against teams in or above the race.

Four weeks ago I wrote that post-season baseball is largely a roll of the dice, and the goal is just to get there and take your chances.

September is arriving, and October is within reach.