If we are going to be snowed in all weekend, I would rather talk with optimism.
I have said since the off-season began that I believe the O’s will be close to .500 in 2010. Basically I saw the O’s as a 75-80 win team prior to the additions of Millwood, Gonzalez, and Atkins.
Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie should all be improved.
Roberts, and Scott should be about the same.
Not having 56 games started by Eaton, Hill, Hendrickson, and Berken will be a major change for the better.
The bullpen will be improved with the internal additions of Uehara, Mickolio, Hernandez, and Berken.
If you told me today, that the O’s were signing Holliday for 6yrs $120M to take over 1st, I could pretty reasonably believe the Orioles were capable of 85 wins.
If you are an 85 win team, you are probably 15 games out of 1st place in the American League East, and 10 wins from being in likely Wild Card Contention. However, a team legitimately capable of 85 wins, is right on the outside of making things interesting.
With Holliday at 1st, we would be looking at a team that looked like:
Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Holliday 1st
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Atkins 3rd
Izturis SS
Wigginton, Pie, Moeller, 25th
Millwood, Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie
Gonzalez
Johnson
Mickolio
Albers/Meredith
Uehara
Hernandez
Berken
That is a strong everyday lineup, useful bench players in Wigginton and Pie, a rotation with promise, and a bullpen capable of helping.
To me, it would not be totally out of the question, for the O’s to play a bit over their heads and push towards 90 wins.
I think for that to occur, the majority of the following things would have to occur. It would be unrealistic to expect each to happen, but on their own, each are possible enough.
1) 2 of 3 out of Markakis, Jones, and Wieters post an OPS at .900 or above. All 3 are above .850.
2) My minimum 2010 expectations for the combined numbers of Matusz, and Tillman are 340 innings at a 4.75 era. I do not think is outside the realm of possibility that Matusz steps-up and has a season similar to Mussina’s first-full year in 1992.
In ’91, a 22 year-old Mussina made his first 12 Major League starts for the Birds. In ’92, he went 18-5 with a 2.54 era. Mussina pitched 241 innings, allowing 212 hits, with 48 walks, and 130 k’s.
In ’09, a 22 year-old Matusz made his first 8 Major League starts for the O’s. In ’10, he went…. ?
What a ridiculous first-full season for Mussina. I guess you have to look at it in context of league averages by season, but still.
I do not think Matusz is capable of 241 innings this coming year, nor likely an era below 3.50. I do think he is capable of 15-18 wins, and 200 innings though.
3) Luke Scott, and Garrett Atkins combine for 45 homers, and 150 rbi batting 7th and 8th in the everyday lineup.
4) Bergesen matches his 2009 production, and Guthrie is closer to his 2008 self.
5) With an improved rotation, and Uehara, Berken, and Hernandez each able to provide extended innings; the bullpen goes from a weakness to a major plus. Mickolio and Johnson provide an excellent bridge to Gonzalez who settles in as a dominating closer.
I do believe a .500 season is within reach, but I am purposely being a bit over the top for discussions sake. It beats the alternative, and I genuinely believe the franchise is on the verge of significantly better days (and 2011 contention).
If the O’s signed Holliday, and a majority of the 5 things above went right; does anyone else think the O’s could push towards 90 wins?
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.