With Penn getting crushed today, Pauley clearing waivers, Liz sent to AAA, and Hill going to the DL… the roster coming North is pretty apparent.
Guthrie, Uehara, Hendrickson, Eaton, Simon
Sherrill
Ray
Johnson
Walker
Sarfate
Albers
That is 11… I figure the O’s go with 12… they probably attempt to get Penn through waivers for the purpose of sending him to AAA… leaving the 12th man on the staff between Bass, and Baez… you can make a case either way (performance vs $$) of how that decision will be made.
Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Huff 1st
Mora 3rd
Scott DH
Zaun C
Pie LF
Izturis SS
Moeller or Hammock, Freel, Wigginton, Gomez
As we have discussed before, in the 2008 season, the Baltimore Orioles won 68 games.
If you were to guarantee me that Wieters would be brought up April 17th, and that the O’s would end April with Hill, and Bergesen in the rotation – I would call for the Orioles to win 77 games in 2009.
With talk that Wieters might not be called up until June… and my own internal trepidation that the O’s might actually go with a 13 man staff, and give both Baez, and Eaton 1/2 a season or more of work… 72 wins is probably the safer-bet.
This team, does have the capability of exceeding current expectations, and finishing with at-least 500 (81 wins) for the first-time since the 1997 season.
Here are some optimistic thoughts, and ways the O’s could exceed expectations:
1) I project Huff to regress from his 2008 season, and finish 2009 with numbers that look like: 290 batting avg, 23 homers, 90 rbi, 850 OPS, 40 doubles. If Huff is closer to his 2008 numbers than I anticipate, that is one way the O’s can exceed current projections.
2) I project Mora to regress from his 2008 season, and finish 2009 with numbers that look like:275 batting avg, 15 homers, 75 rbi, 745 OPS, 23 doubles. If Mora is closer to his 2008 numbers than I anticipate, that is another way the O’s can exceed current projections.
3) If Wieters becomes the everyday catcher on April 17th, the bench improves with the addition of Zaun… and the removal of Moeller or Hammock.
4) The national expectations on the O’s young OF’s Jones, and Pie are fairly minimal. Most of the projections seem to anticipate minimal 2009 growth for Jones, and indicate they believe Pie will closely resemble the player he has been in a little over 200 Major League at-bats with the Cubs.Pie just turned 24 on February 8th… Jones turns 24 in August… I do not anticipate either coming close to reaching their ultimate ceiling this year… I do believe both will exceed the expectations of most prognosticators.
I am projecting:
Jones – 285 batting avg, 20 homers, 80 rbi, 800 OPS, 45 walks, 15 steals
Pie – 270 batting avg, 12 homers, 60 rbi, 738 OPS, 320 on-base, 418 slugging, 35 walks, 140 k’s, 20 doubles, 7 triples, 15 steals, 7 caught stealing. If they project as I forecast, the O’s can exceed current projections.
5) I believe Uehara, and Hill will combine for about 320 innings this year.. if that number is reached, and Guthrie gives the 190 innings plus he provided in 2008… the O’s will exceed current projections.
6) Nothing was more disappointing this Spring, than Liz going back to AAA, and the lack of performance from Penn, and Pauley. If Penn clears waivers, and is assigned to Norfolk… Liz, Penn, and Pauley combined with Bergesen, Hernandez… and to a lesser extent Troy Patton, gives the O’s a number of arms that could help during the year.
7) The bullpen has a chance to be outstanding… With Johnson, Ray, and Sherrill – the O’s can make a lot of games 6innings. All bullpens are ultimately dependent on the rotation to provide innings though.
8) Troy Patton missed all of 2008 with a torn-labrum. To me, having him pitch most of 2009 in AAA and regaining his form should be the expectation. If Patton has 1st-half success in the Minors, and shows he is ready to join the O’s by mid-July… this is another way the O’s can exceed current expectations.
9) In 2008, Bergesen, Hernandez, and Tillman had the following seasons at AA Bowie:
Bergesen – 15-6, 3.22 ERA 148 IP 143 Hits 53 Earned Runs 11 Homers 27 Walks 72 K’s
Hernandez – 10-4, 2.68 ERA 141IP 112 hits 166 k’s 71 walks 10 homers
Tillman – 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 135.2 IP, 115 hits, 154 k’s, 64 walks
To use a poker-term, the O’s figure to slow-play the soon to be 21 year-old Chris Tillman, and Bergesen, and Hernandez figure to be among the first call-ups to the Majors if a starter is needed.
The O’s could exceed current expectations, if these three provide Major League innings this year.Let me clarify this statement… Bergesen might never be more than a fringe-starter…. but as a 5th, or a long-man in the pen… if he can give you some regular innings and throw strikes…. that can help…Hernandez might project better in the back of a bullpen… but if the O’s have a tired staff in July… and Hernandez can come up, and give some K’s in either the back of the rotation, or as a long-man in the pen… that can help…This team wants to logically protect the young arm of Tillman… but he produced in 130+ AA innings last year… if you get through June, and he has improved his fast-ball command… he can give the rotation a shot in the arm.He would not have to be the guy you ultimately project him to be in 2011, and 2012… to help you as a 5th starter in 2009.
10) Markakis has improved every year… most of the National projections are calling for a regression in his 2009 stats. I believe he has not reached his peak, and that we could see another level of production out of him in 2009. If that occurs, the O’s can exceed current expectations.
11) Izturis has some holes to game (primarily an inability to reach base), and he is not a long-term option at SS – but he is vast improvement over what the Orioles used in 2008. (Hernandez, Fahey, Castro, Cintron) I am expecting almost zero offensive production… if he puts up an OPS of .650, that would exceed current expectations.
12) You can expect outstanding defense in the OF, SS, and C… and solid enough at 2nd….. Since this is expected, this is not a matter of exceeding expectations, but this level of defense could certainly make the O’s competitive in a lot of games.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.