Stacking Up the AFC North

We took another step toward normalcy this week as the Ravens coaches returned to the Under Armour Performance Center, in preparation for the 2020 season. Players are still are working on their own and connecting virtually when possible. Locker rooms across the league will need to be configured to conform with the six-foot rule that has been applied just about everywhere. But there is optimism that training camp will be a full go come July, and the 2020 season won’t have any delays.

Hopefully for the Ravens sake the optimism turns to reality, since I don’t have to tell you that the Ravens have just as good a chance of anyone of being the last team standing in February 21’. Kansas City is a 6/1 favorite, and Ravens are 13/2 (or 6.5/1). The next six teams favored are all from the NFC, with the next best odds in the AFC given to the Colts, at 25/1.

The AFC North odds have the Ravens favored 4/9, then the Steelers 7/2, Browns 6/1, and Bengals with number one overall pick Joe Burrow…25/1.

Odds can certainly change. A lot can take place in the next six months. Someone can over perform, someone can underperform, the injury bug could ravage a team. As it stands right now though, let’s go bottom up and examine the AFC North.

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Cincinnati Bengals 

2019 record: 2-14 (1-5)

Point differential: -141

Key subtractions: Andy Dalton (QB), Dre Kirkpatrick (CB), Andrew Billings (DT), Nick Vigil (LB), Tyler Eifert (TE)

Key additions: Trae Waynes (CB), D.J. Reader (DT), Von Bell (S), Xavier Su’a-Filo (G), Joe Burrow (QB – First overall pick)

Bengals owner Mike Brown is never one to make big splashes in free agency. Spending big on Trae Waynes and D.J. Reader took me by surprise, but they also may be overpayments, at least in the case of Waynes. Cincy ranked dead last in rushing defense last year. Adding Reader, and an in the box safety like Von Bell should help them in that department. The AFC North is a rushing division considering the talent on the division foes rosters, so it’s smart to invest there. They also added former Raven LB Josh Bynes on a one-year deal. Expect them to pick his brain.

Cincy also had the benefit of being on the clock for four months, knowing they are drafting Joe Burrow. Obviously that allows you to focus on the defense in free agency.

Problem is that it is unknown how the pandemic will affect the rookies. Burrow is out there playing catch with some old high school teammates. He isn’t playing with his guys, he isn’t throwing with anyone replicating the size, speed, ability of an A.J. Green. How much that means, is unknown.

The x-factor for the Bengals will be the offense. At full strength, their receiving group could be one of the deepest with Green, Tyler Boyd, speedy John Ross, and rookie Tee Higgins. Couple in the ceiling of a guy like Burrow, a capable running back like Joe Mixon to take the pressure off, and the offense could be special. Alas, the receiving group has never been full strength, and Burrow is a complete unknown as a professional.

Cleveland Browns

2019 record: 6-10 (3-3)

Point differential: -58

Key subtractions: Joe Schobert (LB)

Key additions: Jack Conklin (T), Jedrick Wills (T – #10 overall pick), Austin Hooper (TE), B.J. Goodson (LB)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Browns have a new GM and head coach! Long time Vikings assistant Kevin Stefanski takes over at head coach after the backslide of Freddie Kitchens. Stefanski also is a Penn alum, meaning the top three decision makers in operations (GM, Andrew Berry and Chief Strategy Officer, Paul DePodesta) are all Ivy Leaguers. The Browns have talent on the field, they have brains off the field. Do they finally get it right? Or is this just another combination that won’t produce the desired results, and that’s about as nice as one could put it.

But each year is a clean slate and a chance to go back to the drawing board. Stefanski will be the play caller for the Browns. He brings a run scheme that Dalvin Cook had great success in up north, that should suit Nick Chubb well. Baker Mayfield, sacked 40 times last year, won’t be running for his life as they upgraded the tackle positions signing Jack Conklin and using the number 10 overall pick on Jedrick Wills. Not to mention returning All-Pro Guard, Joel Bitonio. Stefanski also helped bring in someone that knows his system, Case Keenum, to backup and bring Mayfield up to speed.

The Browns have a solid defensive front with Myles Garrett set to return, as well as Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson. Any decent tackler at linebacker behind them should be serviceable. They added B.J. Goodson in free agency who will get his first chance at being a full-time player. In a limited role during his stops in Green Bay and New York (Giants), he amassed what would have been a Pro Bowl level number of tackles had he played as many downs as starters do.

The x-factor is Odell Beckham. Best hands in the game, period. Arguably the biggest ego to with them. Ego gets in the way. If you had to pick out three selfish receivers, it’d probably go Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, Randy Moss. Add up their championship rings and it is the same number I have. If Stefanski’s system is using a lot of Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Beckham sees his targets drop, how will that play out? How many games until he is spotted jawing at Mayfield, jawing at a coach, having a tantrum? In other words, being a distraction that keeps the team from focusing on the big picture.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2019 record: 8-8 (3-3)

Point differential: -14

Key subtractions: Ramon Foster (G)

Key additions: Stefan Wisniewski (OL), Eric Ebron (TE)

Those pesky Steelers. Any team that lets their star wideout, running back, and loses their franchise QB in week 2, would be dead in the water. They still managed to finish with a .500 record. Also consider James Connor only playing 10 games and seeing the run production be very un-Steeler-like, as the team went for only 90 yards on the ground per game.

Unlike the usual bottom feeders in the division, the Steelers operate in a very straight forward manner. They rarely trade their top draft picks but did so last year to acquire safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. He shined with it seemed like an interception in every game of theirs I saw. But the numbers say other than the picks, he was pretty pedestrian. Also, unlike the bottom feeders, the brass sticks with their head coach, Mike Tomlin, through thick and thin. Though the national media will have you think this guy has been on the hot seat for a few years now.

The defense is back to what you are used to seeing in Pittsburgh, and the secondary is considered a “no fly zone” having the third best pass defense a year ago allowing 194 yards per game through the air.

The x-factor is going to be Ben Roethlisberger. How does he respond to elbow surgery? How does he respond to basically a year off? When does father time catch him? When does the years of physical abuse from extending plays catch him? Has this stuff caught him and will 2020 be the year he is exposed? Does the year off rejuvenate him? I hope not.

Quick game of over/under. How many weeks until Ben hint’s at retirement for about the 15^th time? I give it until week 7.

It’s simple. The Steelers defense will keep them in a lot of games. When Ben’s playing, the Steelers are a playoff contender, despite the fake drama they drum up and the bait the media takes. With this defense, he won’t have to do much but manage. This organization never fails to be in the mix come December, no matter what.

Baltimore Ravens

2019 record: 14-2 (5-1)

Point differential: +249

Key subtractions: Marshal Yanda (G), Tony Jefferson (S), Hayden Hurst (TE), James Hurst (G), Chris Wormley (DL)

Key additions: Calais Campbell (Edge), Derek Wolfe (DL), D.J. Fluker (G), Patrick Queen (LB – First round pick)

Matching last year’s record is going to be a tall task. But moving farther in the playoffs than the divisional round is the goal in 2020.

In these unusual times where a wrench is thrown into the offseason mix, continuity could prove to be king. The Ravens aren’t going through major coaching or coordinator changes. They aren’t changing schemes. Lamar Jackson doesn’t have to build chemistry with receivers, even though he is down in Florida because his work ethic is as elite as his physical ability. Jackson can spend time in the film room refining the mental part of the game. Reading defenses. We’re past the “he needs to work on his throwing mechanics” stage.

The retirement of Marshal Yanda could be tricky to overcome. It’s the only real positional unit battle I’m interested in come camp and seeing who is making the calls when/if there are preseason games will be telling. There are a few combinations of guards and centers the Ravens could roll out there.

I’m really excited to see this Ravens defense in action. They were a top-five unit in multiple categories, and now they add Calais Campbell? Is that even fair? I’m excited to see what Patrick Queen brings to the table. He was a steal at number 28 in the draft.

I try so hard to find something the Ravens need to improve upon…it’s hard when you just went 14-2 and by the margins of victory they did. Not to mention winning 12 straight games after a 2-2 start where you had patch holes at linebacker that Queen should fill permanently.

I’ve used the term x-factor for each team that will be something that could swing the pendulum between success and failure. It’s lazy if I say it’s Lamar Jackson because he’s not hurt, wasn’t hurt, and doing all the right things, and has nothing to prove after an MVP season. He’s not even the reason the Ravens season ended abruptly in the 2019 playoffs. I’m going to say the x-factor on this team, is their mental focus. Jackson is doing his thing, but what about the next guy, or the 11th guy, or the 46th guy? The squad returns many starters from last season, and the way it ended should have left a bad taste in their mouth. They should be motived by coming up short when it mattered most. They should not rest on the laurels of going 14-2. The Ravens are the team again that every opponent will circle on their schedule as a key game for them. The Browns treat their matchups with the Ravens as their Super Bowl, and eviscerated the Ravens, in Baltimore last year when they were still trying to get their early season footing.

14-2? Nobody cares. Work harder. Everyone is 0-0 right now.

Prediction

Vegas has this right. Ravens win the division. Steelers make the playoffs. Browns could sneak in now that it is a seven-team playoff, but I don’t like a team having to go through major changes in the front office and at head coach while the nation is on lockdown. Bengals, Burrow has to prove himself first, but the offseason surprise moves by Mike Brown could help them rebound faster, maybe they come close to .500, or even put Cleveland back in the basement.