After Guthrie’s outstanding performance last-night, let us look at where some of his numbers are for the year.
Guthrie improved to 2-4, with a 4.13 era.
In his 8 starts, he has pitched a total of 52.1 innings, allowing 46 hits, 6 homers, 10 walks, with 30 k’s. He is holding opposing batters to a .684 OPS, and his grounder to fly-ball ratio is 0.68.
Across the board, Guthrie is improved compared to last-season. Most importantly his control is better, and he is allowing less homers.
The question in my mind, is will Guthrie continue to be an Oriole – or will MacPhail look to move Guthrie to create a space in the rotation for Tillman or Arrieta?
The same question also applies to Millwood, and you can argue who among the two would be more likely to be moved. Guthrie is appealing to others (and for the O’s to retain) because he is cheaper, and not a Free Agent until after the 2013 season.
Millwood is a Free Agent after this 2010 season, so anyone that acquired him would be doing so with 2010 only in-mind. As he is making $12M this year, he obviously would be a more significant investment for any-team (of course, they would only be paying the pro-rated amount, and the O’s could offer to eat some of the $ as well).
My own opinion has been that I have believed Millwood was likely to remain an Oriole for the duration of 2010. I have always believed his signing was the 2010 version of Sutcliffe in ’92, and that they wanted him to lead the young O’s starters by example for an entire year. Due to that, I have always leaned towards believing that if one of the two of them were to be moved, it was likely to be Guthrie.
The O’s have now won 10 of 18, and are looking more like the .500 level team envisioned when this year started. MacPhail has repeatedly said that wins matter this year. With as big a hole as the O’s dug with their 2-16 start, does this make MacPhail less likely to trade one of these anchors? The Orioles have to like knowing with some confidence what they are going to get from Millwood, and Guthrie each time out. At a minimum, you are going to receive solid innings that prevent the bullpen from being overly taxed. More often than not, they are going to keep you in the game. For a team that wants to show tangible improvement on the field this year, it is hard to let that go.
Still, for the O’s to contend in the immediate future – Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are going to have to play major roles.
Tillman
2010 AAA: 3-4, 3.83 era, 44.2 innings, 44 hits, 4 homers, 9 walks, 36 k’s, .256 baa
2009 AAA: 8-6, 2.70 era, 96.2 innings, 85 hits, 5 homers, 26 walks, 99 k’s, .238 baa
Arrieta
2010 AAA: 3-1, 1.67 era, 43 innings, 24 hits, 1 homer, 24 walks, 36 k’s, .167 baa
As such, are the O’s better off long-term with Tillman and Arrieta getting extended Major League innings during a 2010 season where you can not contend? I would argue they are. On the other-hand Arrieta needs to show better control (10 walks combined last two starts), and Tillman needs to get out of his patter of one dominating start followed by one serviceable start. (Also allowed 3 homers last two times out, and that has to be a focus)
With Bergesen coming on again, it seems like what we are going to see is the removal of Hernandez some-time during the next month with the promotion of either Tillman or Arrieta (likely Tillman) to replace. Will MacPhail look to move Guthrie or Millwood to create room for the other?
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.