Do We Still Like Our Guys?

The phrase, “I like our guys,” was seemingly a mantra for Baltimore Orioles Manager Buck Showalter during the 2014 season. Weeks before Pitchers and Catchers arrive in Sarasota for the start of Spring Training, how should we currently view the O’s roster?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

To answer this, let’s start with a look at what the roster likely looks like as of today.

Alejandro De Aza, LF
Manny Machado, 3rd
Adam Jones, CF
Chris Davis, 1st
Steve Pearce, RF
Matt Wieters, C
JJ Hardy, SS
Delmon Young, DH
Jonathan Schoop, 2nd

Bench: Joseph, Flaherty, Lough, Paredes
Rotation: Tillman, Chen, Norris, Gausman, Gonzalez
Bullpen: Britton, O’Day, Hunter, McFarland, Matusz or Wright, Webb, Jimenez  (Brach, Garcia, Verrett.)

What jumps out to you?

To me, the overriding thoughts are that there are a number of things to like – but maybe not quite enough. The O’s 2014 season ended October 15th, when the Kansas City Royals completed their four game sweep of Baltimore in the American League Championship Series. When you are coming off a season when you’ve won your Division, won 96 games, advanced to an LCS; the only goal for an organization can be repeating those accomplishments and taking the next step. The only steps remaining are getting to, and winning a World Series.

The fact that you can lose Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, and Andrew Miller – and still have a roster with the capability of winning the AL East is simultaneously something to appreciate, and also something which frustrates. The most painful part of the ’98-’11 seasons of misery, were that the O’s were routinely eliminated from contention prior to the first pitch of Opening Day. Building an organization to the point where you are annually in the hunt is a lofty goal. The O’s have not yet reached that level, but for a 4th consecutive year the team is positioned to play games which matter. As an Oriole fan, that is something to be thankful for. What is grating, is the sense that the window for this group is closing. That larger roster turnover could (figures to) be taking place in the next 12 months. That Baltimore knocked on the World Series door last year, and this season  you want to see them kick that door in.

While the O’s have said goodbye to Cruz, Markakis, and Miller – Baltimore gets to welcome back Machado, Davis, and Wieters. Had the latter trio been available for the post-season last year, maybe that would have been enough to hoist the organizations 4th World Championship Trophy. There are no mulligans to be played, so that question will always remain a hypothetical. What should be clear is that if the ’15 O’s are going to again be a factor in the AL East (and the AL as a whole), that group is going to have stay on the field and produce. What can or should be expected from them individually this year?

The best news the O’s have received in sometime is that Machado is feeling great, and will be a full-go for Spring Training. When the ’15 season begins, Machado will still just be 22 (23 July 6th). It does not take a lot of intelligence to note that Machado being available for the 156 games he played in ’13, vs. the 82 games he was limited to in ’14 would be a significant positive difference for the O’s roster. I’m not overly concerned about his health going forward, and I expect Machado to be in the lineup on a regular basis this coming year. Of course that remains to be seen.  If he’s healthy, we can clearly expect him to provide defense as good or better than any 3rd baseman in the game. Offensively, the minimal expectation is what he has been so far in his career. A .278 /.313 /.434 hitter. Steamer’s projection of a .271 /.319 /.436 season seem low. I don’t think that accounts for the fact that Machado’s ’14 numbers were impacted by him not being able to train last Winter, and missing all of Spring Training. While he joined the O’s lineup on May 1st, that entire Month was essentially spent working his way back into game shape. While years away from what should be the prime of his career, Machado enters ’15 with nearly 1,200 MLB at-bats under his belt. My anticipation is that we see his offense take a leap production wise with gains in both his on-base %, and slugging %. Look for his LD%, and ISO to increase, and for his K% to decrease. An .800 OPS is within reach for the O’s most talented overall player, as is him being a 6 win fWAR player for the second time.

As of today, the largest question facing the O’s is what do they get out of Davis? Productive in ’12, All-World in ’13, a brutal disappointment in ’14. I’ve said several times this Winter that I’m expecting production somewhere between his ’12 and ’13 seasons. A .915 OPS, a .386 wOBA, a 4.5 fWAR season. Will that prognostication prove to be optimistic? The O’s had better hope it does not. If Davis is not able to again be a force in the middle of their lineup; it is hard for me to see this collective group being overly productive. The idea that Davis could be anywhere from replacement level to MVP caliber is wild. It is also throws a wrench into predictions for the roster as a whole.

In the early part of last year, we saw changes with Wieters hand positioning and improvement with his splits. It’s hard to take away much from that though, as his season ended on May 10th. His 104 ab’s last year clearly not meaning as much as the 2,453 he has had for his career. What we know is that if he’s in the lineup – he is a better hitter than his replacements last year in Joseph, and Nick Hundley. On Monday, Wieters will start throwing from a distance of 120 feet. It appears his rehab is on-track, but his ability to be ready for Opening Day is still a bit of question. With Joseph showing to be a good defensive catcher in his own right, perhaps Wieters will get some additional rest (139, 144, and 148 games in the ’11, ’12, ’13 seasons) vs. how he has been used previously. My thinking is that a few extra days out of the lineup could keep him fresher and more productive. On the other-hand, ’15 probably figures to be Wieters last year in an O’s uniform. As such, the O’s may want to put him behind the plate as often as they can during this coming year.

As far as the rest of the everyday lineup?

De Aza could do a quality Markakis impression. (Though it appears with the roster as is, he would be targeted for LF vs. Right.)

Playing a full Major League season for the first time, Schoop was a disaster as he tired out in September. The year as a whole was a positive in my opinion. He showed to be a better 2nd baseman than advertised (good around the bag, strong arm, adequate range), and he gained the experience of playing everyday. The O’s will obviously be hoping he can make a jump in Year 2. The biggest thing I’ll be looking for is for Schoop to close the gap between his walks (13) and k’s (122). He has obvious pop, and looked good when able to hunt fastballs. He is going to have to improve vs. secondary offerings. If he can improve his OPS up to around .700, that would be a nice lift for the offense.

Signed to that recent 3 year extension, Hardy will be going into his 5th year in a Baltimore uniform. By UZR/150, 2014 was his best year with the glove as an Oriole. On the flip-side his ISO (.104) was the lowest of his career. The doubles were still there, the homers fell off. There was some talk that his approach changed to deal with injuries he was playing through. If healthier in ’15, do we see him find the seats more often?

Pearce turns 32 in April. It didn’t shock me that Pearce had a very productive season vs. LHP (1.109 OPS in 98 ab’s) this past year. What did surprise me was how well he hit RHP’s (.856 OPS in 240 ab’s). I like Pearce, and have no problem with him getting regular ab’s. Ideally though, I’d prefer him to be someone that rotated between LF, DH, and 1st. I was impressed with his defense in both LF and 1st last year. He was more than adequate in both spots, and that was a credit to him working to improve. As is, Showalter seems to have Pearce targeted for RF. My assumption is he prefers Pearce’s arm there vs. De Aza.

For the first time in years, the advanced metrics liked Jones’ defense in CF. Was that due to a change in positioning (playing deeper more consistently), or was it an aberration? Over the last 5 years, Jones has batted somewhere between .281 and .287. (.280 for his career.) He’s slugged between .442 and .505 in each of those 5 years (.461 for his career.) During that time-frame, his on-base % has been between .311 and .334 (.320 for his career.) You know what you are going to get from Jones offensively. There are no surprises at this point. In that Game 4 ALCS  loss vs. Kansas City, Jones took 2 walks. To me, that illustrated that Jones could make a conscious decision to be more patient at the plate and work to get on-base at a higher rate. Part of the reason Jones is so aggressive, is that he is hunting fastballs early in counts. It’s worked for him, and he struggles with pitch-recognition when he gets behind. With 4,200 MLB ab’s under his belt, it’s time to appreciate him for what he is, not what one would hope he could be. He’s part of the solution, even if his game has flaws.

I continue to hope that the O’s will come to an agreement with Rasmus. Now several weeks removed from Showalter’s home visit with the OF, my optimism of that happening have been lowered.  With Rasmus in the fold, he would figure to take over RF, with De Aza shifting to Left, and Pearce becoming the regular DH. The added benefit being that Young moves to an option off the bench (replacing Paredes in the above roster projection), vs. relying on him to get everyday ab’s at DH. I think Young was utilized correctly last year, and performed well because of that.

In the last day or two, there have been a few stories connecting the O’s to Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon. Despite the home / road splits, he doesn’t look a horrible trade candidate. I don’t see how trading for him makes more sense vs. signing Rasmus though.

Discussing Rasmus gets back to some of the frustration of this off-season. His signing would guarantee nothing. He could be a 3 win player, or he could bring essentially nothing. He’s a bit of a lottery ticket. The other thing he is though is depth, and the representation of another possible answer. MASN’s Kubatko has insinuated several times that the O’s have offered a 1 year deal at $7M. I don’t think that is an unfair deal, but with a scarcity of other somewhat attractive options remaining (further reduced by the San Francisco Giants signing of Aoki) – I’d like to see the O’s blink in this case and do what was necessary to secure him. No matter what, we are talking about a 1 year deal. How far apart can the the O’s and Rasmus be?

How do you view the rotation?

Despite the lack of an ‘ACE’ (unless Gausman explodes), I’m quite comfortable with this group. As we get closer to Spring Training, there will be numerous articles to be found about that staff (outside of Gausman) being a collective group of regression candidates. For any of those guys – Tillman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez – you can make those arguments individually. Collectively, I think you have a group that will again regularly give the O’s a chance.

BSL Colleagues Rob Shields and Jeff Long have previously written about James Shields, and Max Scherzer. Our other BSL Colleague Jonathan Bernhardt had suggested trading for Cole Hamels. Certainly none of those acquisitions are likely. If finalizing a deal with Rasmus requires extended dialogue, nobody should expect the O’s to acquire any of these three players. That said, the expected contract for Shields appears to be dropping. He isn’t Scherzer or Hamels, but he would improve the O’s rotation. Acquiring him would also only increase the O’s ability to trade a Chen / Norris / Gonzalez for help elsewhere if so desired. (Or if a trade did not present itself, Shields could replace Gonzalez in the rotation, and Gonzalez could replace Webb in the bullpen. Some might argue that it would be a waste of resources, but I think having Gonzalez and Jimenez in the pen to start the year would be interesting. Injuries would likely open a spot in the rotation for them at some point, and their talents could be leveraged in different ways as relievers. You would not necessarily have to use them as mop up guys only.)

By current construction, I think the bullpen is okay. Showalter’s bullpen usage is overall one of his strengths. You can quibble with match-ups etc, but he avoids burning guys out. If the starters can continue to provide innings in-front of them, the group above should remain productive.

Do we still like our guys? The resounding answer I think is yes. If the question was do we love our guys, that answer would likely change.