Super Bowl 59: Kansas City Chiefs Vs. The Philadelphia Eagles

On Sunday night, Super Bowl 59 arrives with Kansas City seeking their 3rd consecutive Lombardi Trophy, and the Eagles seeking revenge for their Super Bowl 57 loss to the Chiefs.

The percentage mentioned below is from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.
All DVOA numbers from FTN Fantasy.  You can find the final 2024 season DVOA numbers at FTN Fantasy here.

Sunday February 9th, 6:30PM

The New England Patriots went to nine Super Bowls over the 2001 through 2018 seasons.
That was a ridiculous extended run of dominance over the course of nearly two decades.

When the confetti rained down the Patriots February 3rd, 2019 after their Super Bowl 53 win over the Rams; my feeling was this was not something we would see again.

And yet, here we are in the midst of the Chiefs current dynasty.

As mentioned; KC is going for their third straight Super Bowl win.
They’ve been in the AFC Championship Game seven straight years.
This is the Chiefs fifth Super Bowl appearance in this seven year run, and they’ve already claimed the ultimate prize three times since February 2nd, 2020.

And Patrick Mahomes doesn’t turn 30 until September.

This is rarified air, that has to be appreciated.
Fortune and good luck has to shine on you, to accomplish this string of consistency.
But the Chiefs have also created and made the most of their opportunities.

Think about this from the Ravens perspective.
The Ravens win Super Bowl 35, with one of the great all-time defenses.
The following year, they were set for another deep run, but Jamal Lewis suffers ACL and MCL injuries in minicamp (and Priest Holmes had left the Ravens for Kansas City in Free Agency) and the 2002 season was ultimately derailed from the start.

The Ravens win Super Bowl 47, and that could have possibly been a back-to-back champion had a catch been made, and a field goal converted in the AFC Championship Game the year prior.

Since 2019, the Ravens have had three of the fourteen highest rated years from 1978 through this 2024 season (2019, 2023, 2024) and they have one AFC Championship Game appearance to show for it. That’s a tough pill to swallow for Ravens fans, and worthy of a tip of cap to KC.

I thought the Chiefs were generally under-rated during the year.
Somehow we got to a point where the Chiefs – with all of their accomplishments – were able to say, “It’s us against the world. Nobody believes in poor us.” 

They went 15-2 during the regular season.
They continued to win, even though they didn’t have the prolific offense of yesteryear.
They continued to win, even though they lost Rashee Rice to an early injury, and didn’t have Hollywood Brown available until December 21st.
They continued to win, even though Isiah Pacheco was limited to seven games, and wasn’t himself when he was again available.

Kareem Hunt returned to KC, and gave the Chiefs some production on the ground.
His 3.6 yards per carry wasn’t strong, but he did have 200 carries, and 7 TD’s. He gave them something. He also had 23 receptions.

De’Andre Hopkins was acquired, and added stability in the passing attack.
He wasn’t going to stretch the field like Rice, or  Brown; but Mahomes was given another reliable set of hands.
Not huge regular season numbers, and just one catch in the post-season so far, but he’s at-least someone defenses have to account for.

Xavier Worthy had more asked of him in his rookie season than was probably anticipated, but he also contributed.
He’s a bit of a one trick pony at this point, but the speed is real, and with 98 regular season targets – he grew up a lot.

JuJu Smith-Schuster caught 111 balls in 2018, and 97 more in 2020 with Pittsburgh.
In 2022, he had 78 on 101 targets for KC.
He spent ’23 with New England, and didn’t do much before finding his way back to KC for ’24.
His ’24 numbers show just 18 receptions over 14 games, and yet I won’t be surprised if he factors Sunday.

Travis Kelce averaged just 8.5 yards per catch this year, well below his 12.1 yard career average.
But he did haul in another 97 receptions. He might not give the Chiefs YAC (yards after the catch) like he did in his prime, but he can still move the chains.

I don’t know if Brown, and Pacheco are right, but they are available.
Those two coupled with Hunt, Hopkins, Worthy, Smith-Schuster, Kelce; that’s not nothing.
For all of the talk leading up to Sunday about the Chiefs having a limited offense, this is pretty much the best position the Chiefs offense has been in all year.

Also, I didn’t even mention that LG Joe Thuney, and Center Creed Humphrey are All-Pros, and of course most importantly Mahomes is at QB.

I always think the discussions of Best QB ever are interesting, and really depends on perspective.
How do you factor in the different eras and different rules?
The additional physicality of the game in prior years, vs. perhaps higher athleticism of the game today?
Is the criteria who is the physically most talented?
The QB who inspired the most fear?
The QB you would believe in the most with a close and late situation? The QB you would want with the ball in his hand, and under 2 minutes on the clock?
What regular season and post-season accomplishments have to be met?
How do you factor in the surrounding talent, and coaching?
The elements they played in?

I believe Tom Brady had the greatest career, but that doesn’t make him the greatest QB of all-time to me.
I know that places me in the minority.

Mahomes already has a display case of career accomplishments.
And the ability is off the charts. Arm talent, intelligence, poise, maneuverability in the pocket, leadership. All excellent.
He’s been dinged by some over the last 24 months because the regular season numbers haven’t looked as absurd as they once did.
I don’t really understand that.
He’s not putting up huge numbers because the supporting cast – while capable – isn’t as scary or explosive as it once was.
It’s not because he’s regressed.
You’d think that would be obvious to everyone.

Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow; I think each of them have an argument for being labeled as talented or even more talented than Mahomes; but Mahomes consistently wins so he continues to wear the belt as the best QB in the game.

You’ll have to beat him, and beat him a couple of times before I think that changes.

At this point, the regular season accolades, and any discussion of just how talented Mahomes is, or how do you value his individual career numbers compiled in this era as compared to other all-time greats from other eras doesn’t matter at all.

The only thing that matters when discussing Mahomes’ legacy at this point is does he chase down Brady for greatest career ever?
If the Chiefs win Sunday, he’s one step closer to making that a possibility.
Which again, was just unfathomable in February 2019.

All of this talk about the Chiefs offense etc, and I’m just now getting to their defense.

KC’s defense remains formidable.
DL Chris Jones was 1st team All-Pro.
DB Trent McDuffie was 2nd team All-Pro.

The Chiefs lost the regular season final 38-0 to Denver, but it’s hard to take anything from that game given how KC was just focused on resting their starters.
If you ignore that result, the 29 points allowed to Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game were the most they allowed all year.
In the five regular season games leading up to the final vs. the Broncos; the Chiefs allowed an average of 14 points per game.
For the season, KC finished 6th overall in rushing yards per carry against them at 4.1.
In addition to Jones, and McDuffie; I like DE George Karlaftis who had 8 sacks.

So, Chris, are you going to mention Philadelphia at all?

I think the Eagles are the more talented team.
I think most people see that.

Saquon Barkley just had an all-time great season with his 2,000+ yards.
If you gear up to stop him, the Eagles have two WR’s in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith who can destroy CB’s in 1×1 coverage.
Let’s say that McDuffie is able to neutralize Brown. Does Jaylen Watson hold up 1×1 vs. Smith?
If you are doubling one of the WR’s, that will create opportunities for TE Dallas Goedert.
And again, Barkley.
LT Jordan Mailata was a 2nd team All-Pro, and the Eagles line is excellent overall.
The Chiefs have a good run defense as we stated, and may be able to slow Barkley, but he’s still going to get his.

And then we get to Jalen Hurts.
Hurts is often ridiculed or lamented by Eagles fans (and football fans overall) for a pretty pedestrian arm.
Which is fair, but the Eagles are winning a lot of games with him at the helm.
It feels like people forget that Hurts finished 2nd in the MVP voting after the 2022 season.
They aren’t winning in spite of him, they are winning with him as a cog.
In the Super Bowl two years ago, Hurts threw for 304 yards, and also rushed for 70 with 3 TD’s.

I’d run Hurts early and often.
Give KC something else to be really concerned about, and then hammer them with Barkley.
And just when the Chiefs are up at the line of scrimmage geared to slow the Eagles rushing attack, then look for the 1×1 match-ups with the wideouts.

It’s funny how quickly narratives can change in sports.
In Week 4 of this season, the Eagles were 2-2 after losing at Tampa Bay.
All of the talk coming out of Philadelphia that week was that the relationship between Hurts and Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni was on it’s last legs.
There seemed to be lots of conjecture that Sirianni’s time as HC was coming to an end.
And then the Eagles ripped of a 10 game winning streak, and nobody remembers those early season miscues.
Philadelphia finished the regular season 14-3, and has reached the Super Bowl by winning their three playoff games, including their 55-23 demolishing of the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game.

This is a very strong Eagles team, and for all of the talk about their offensive skill position talent; the best part of the Philadelphia roster is their defense.
LB Zack Baun was 1st team All-Pro.
DL Jalen Carter was 2nd team All-Pro.

DVOA Rankings:
KC – 8th overall, 8th offense, 8th defense, 12th special teams
Philadelphia – 5th overall, 13th offense, 1st defense, 14th special teams

KC is a 1.5 point favorite.
ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor is giving the Eagles a 56.1% chance of winning.

Prediction

When I look at the rosters, I think the Eagles have the edge.
And yet, it’s hard to pick against the Chiefs.
Some of that is just seeing them win so many of these games.
Some of that is believing in the Chiefs Coaching staff.
Some of that is believing Mahomes again just finds a way.

And then I start thinking, that’s not necessarily fair to Hurts or the Eagles overall.
Mahomes and Hurts are the starting QB’s, but they aren’t defending each other.
Hurts doesn’t have to be Mahomes equal for the Eagles to win.
KC’s defense is good, Philadelphia’s is better.
KC’s offense has more going for it then most people think, but the Philadelphia weapons are better.

If it’s close late and Mahomes has the ball, then he’ll probably hoist the trophy for the 3rd straight year.
But I’ll take Philadelphia to win, thinking they’ll do enough on the ground to generally control the game.

Eagles 34 Chiefs 24.