Two weeks from tonight (February 8th, 6:30PM) the New England Patriots will face the Seattle Seahawks for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl 60.
How Off Was I To Start The Year?
Prior to Week 1, my comments on the Patriots and Seahawks were:
New England is picked to finish 2nd in the AFC East by basically everyone. Tre’Vyon Henderson, and Stefon Diggs should add some juice to the offense. The defense looks solid. All eyes will be on 2nd year QB Drake Maye. Maye looks talented enough to lift up his teammates.
Seattle is an interesting team going into ’25. Sam Darnold is at QB after his marvelous ’24 season in Minnesota. Darnold no longer has Justin Jefferson to throw to, but he does have Jaxson Smith-Nigba, Cooper Kupp, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at WR. The left side of the O-Line looks good. Is right side of the line tolerable? Does RB Kenneth Walker bounce back some? Can Kupp stay available (9 games, 12 games, 12 games) the last 3 years. He doesn’t have to be the 145 catch Kupp from the ’21 season, but he does have to take some attention off of Smith-Nigba. I don’t know what to expect from Darnold exactly. He was draft into the league in 2018 and it never clicked for him. People raved about the talent, but there is never enough talk about the surrounding talent and system. Last year he had an opportunity and ran with it. Played at a level where he was getting MVP votes at year end. Now people are fixated on his loss in the Wild Card. My take would be expecting him to perform like a Pro Bowler might be expecting too much, but he has a chance to better for Seattle in ’25 than the Seahawks got from Geno Smith in ’24. This is Year 2 for Mike Macdonald as HC for Seattle. The defense has a chance to be amongst the best in the league. If they can pound the ball with Walker, and get a good play action game going; Seattle can be right in that playoff mix. Their over / under is set at 8.5, and that seems about right.
Can’t say I’m happy with my comments on either.
I thought both New England Seattle could be playoff teams; but I can’t say I expected either to be playing for a Super Bowl.
Reviewing Their Regular Seasons
New England won the AFC East, going 14-3.
They were 6-3 at home, 8-0 on the road, and outscored their opposition by 170 points.
They won their last 3 regular season games.
The Patriots started their season 1-2, and went 13-1 the rest of the way.
Seattle won the NFC West, also going 14-3.
They were 6-2 at home, 8-1 on the road, and outscored their opposition by 191 points.
They won their last 7 regular season games.
In Seattle’s three losses, they were outscored by a combined 9 points.
Drake Maye was a 2nd team All-Pro for the Patriots.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba was 1st team All-Pro for Seattle, with Ernest Jones, and Devon Witherspoon named to the 2nd team.
Christian Gonzalez was named to Pro Bowl for NE.
Sam Darnold, and DeMarcus Lawrence were Pro Bowlers for Seattle.
Based on average DVOA by opponent, the Patriots had the third-easiest schedule since 1978!
Final DVOA Rankings To End The Regular Season
Seattle – 1st overall, 10th offense, 1st defense, 2nd in special teams.
New England – 9th overall, 3rd offense, 23rd defense, 20th in special teams.
Their Playoff Paths
New England – The 2 seed in the AFC won in the Wild Card Round beating the Chargers 16-3, won the Divisional Round with a 28-16 victory over Houston, and won the AFC Championship today beating the Broncos 10-7 in Denver. It wasn’t the prettiest performance today for the Patriots; but you have to account for the Broncos quality defense and the deteriorating weather.
Seattle – The 1 seed in the NFC had a bye in the Wild Card Round, crushed SF 41-6 in the Divisional Round, and won the NFC Championship today beating the Rams 31-27.
The Head Coaches
New England – Mike Vrabel. This was Year 1 for Vrabel (50 years old) as Head Coach with New England, after 8 years with the Patriots as a player. This was Vrabel’s 7th season as an NFL Head Coach. He’s 68-48 all-time in the regular season, and today was Vrabel’s 2nd Conference Championship Game as a HC.
Seattle – Mike Macdonald. This was Year 2 as the Seahawks Head Coach for the 38 year old former Ravens DC. Macdonald has started his HC career with a 24-10 regular season record.
Initial Prediction
The whole world outside of Boston is going to be anticipating a Seattle win, myself included.
The Seahawks are stronger on both sides of the ball, as well as Special Teams.
I haven’t seen an initial line, but I’d make Seattle a 7 point favorite.
But we’ve seen this story before.
If you are the underdog in the Super Bowl, you don’t have to beat the favorite 4x, you have to win once.
Drake Maye is probably going to finish 2nd in the NFL MVP vote.
I see Maye as more of an upper 1/3 talent vs. an Elite MVP talent; but he played at a consistently high level this year.
A fantastic season for the second year pro.
He’s certainly good enough to have a hot day – even against a very talented Seattle defense – and elevate the Patriots in a one game scenario.
Against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round Maye had 10 carries for 66 yards. Against Denver today, he had 10 carries for 65 yards.
I believe the Patriots will need more of that in the Super Bowl.
Vrabel will have the Patriots galvanized with an, “Us vs. the world mentality.”
By gametime, the Patriots will be foaming at the mouth to show they deserve more ‘respect.’
That makes for a dangerous team.
And the flip side of that is the Seahawks are going to spend the next two weeks hearing about they actually already won the Super Bowl when they beat the Rams for the NFC Title.
If the Patriots come out and have some initial success, and Seattle tastes adversity for the first time – that could be a recipe for a Patriots upset.
That outcome would still surprise me though.
The Patriots played the teams on their schedule, and get credit for controlling what they could control – but they played a very weak schedule this season.
I think their a solid playoff team, who is over their skis getting this far.
Everything points to Seattle exposing them a bit.
I think back to the Patriots December 22nd win in Baltimore.
The Ravens ran for 171 yards (5.2 yards per carry) in that game, and found a way to lose.
I expect Seattle will be able to run on the Patriots and set-up their play action game.
I picture Seattle building a lead, and their defense ultimately teeing off on Maye.
Certainly would be surprised to see Seattle’s defense crumble if they’re playing from ahead.
The Pick: 31-17 Seahawks, and a second Super Bowl title for Seattle.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.