Taking the Temperature of Birdland

Baltimore Sports and Life believes there are a number of issues being considered by Oriole fans everywhere. As such, I recently sent a sampling of questions via survey form to some of my fellow Oriole bloggers.

What I thought would be interesting is seeing where (and if) a general consensus existed. Along with BSL, the following people and blogs participated in this survey:

Stacey Long / Camden Chat: http://www.camdenchat.com/
Peter Dilutis / Charm City Sports Talk: http://charmcitysportstalk.com/
Sean Jester / The Bad Oriole: http://thebadoriole.blogspot.com/
Jon Shepherd / Camden Depot: http://camdendepot.com/
Daniel Moroz / Camden Crazies: http://camdencrazies.com/
Bob Phelan / The Oriole Report: http://theoriolereport.com/
Anthony Amobi / Oriole Post: http://oriolepost.com/
Steve Giles / Baltimore Sports Report: http://baltimoresportsreport.com/

I greatly appreciate each of the above mentioned sites for contributing. With each question asked, I will show how the 9 of us voted, and will include a comment that illustrates the consensus, and a comment that illustrates the opposing view if one exists or was articulated. Please note the survey was provided prior to the start of the Seattle series, and thus also prior to today’s news of Reimold being sent back to the Minors (with the promotion of Patterson). The questions asked were:

1) Do you believe Adam Jones should be optioned back to Norfolk, yes or no?
8 No’s, and 1 Yes to this question.

Consensus Comment via Peter Dilutis / Charm City Sports Talk: “No. At this point, it’s safe to say this is a lost season contention wise, barring an epic turnaround in the toughest division in baseball. At this point, the Orioles need to go into 2011 with as much questions answered as possible. Just like Pie last season, the only way the O’s are going to get answers from Jones is for him to play everyday at the major league level. Jones dominating for a month in AAA will do nothing to answer those questions.Plus there is no one better than Corey Patterson to replace him. If Pie and Reimold were both healthy and producing, I’d consider it, but that’s not the case.”

Consensus Comment via Jon Shepherd / Camden Depot: “I think the bad habits Jones has gotten himself into will be perfectly fine habits at AAA. He needs to face MLB-level secondary pitches. He needs to work on recognition and he somehow needs to figure out how not to press. The only reason to send him down would be mentally related and I think he will be stronger in the future if he is able to soldier through this long extended rough patch. Jones is a contact oriented hitter. A comparison would be someone like Torii Hunter. Hunter could not figure out his offensive side until he was around 26 years old. Not all contact hitters figure it out, but they typically do after extended reps.”

Opposing view via Sean Jester / The Bad Oriole: “I would have said no, but in his last 16 AB’s, still a .579 OPS. He is 4-11 in the last 3 games, so maybe he is heating up. But if he is still struggling after this home stand, send him back down to send him a message AND so he can get these issues worked out while not costing the O’s precious AB’s.”

2) Do you want to see David Hernandez remain in the O’s rotation, yes or no?
8 No’s, and 1 Yes to this question.

Consensus Comment via Bob Phelan / The Oriole Report: “I think he could be a great reliever coming out of the pen and could eventually be our closer. He just doesn’t seem to be able to get past the 5th or 6th innings and struggles with the third time through a lineup. I wouldn’t mind giving him more time in the rotation but with Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman banging down the door at AAA Norfolk I think he should be shifted to where he will most likely be long term with the club.”

3) Entering the Seattle series, The Baltimore Orioles are 9-23 overall, with 130 games left in the 2010 season. Predict their ending record:
The average predicted win total is 73 wins.

Consensus Comment via Steve Giles / Baltimore Sports Report: “I think the O’s will finish around 20 games under .500, which would put them in this range of wins. This being said, I don’t think they’ll finish as bad as they did last season. But the injuries to key players early in the season put them in a hole they won’t be able to get out of. The young pitchers are going to get better as the season rolls along, but I just don’t feel the chemistry in the lineup is enough to propel them past 74 wins.”

Opposing view via Daniel Moroz / Camden Crazies: “I thought they were a 75 win team – with Roberts and Pie. If they play like, say, a 72 win team the rest of the way, then they’ll pick up 58 more victories and finish with 67 wins. Man, that sucks to write out there.”

4) Assuming Roberts is back by mid-June, do you want Wigginton to take over 1st, go back to a Super UTI role, or be traded with his value at a ‘high?”
5 voted to trade him, 4 voted to keep him either at 1st or as a Super Utility type.

Consensus Comment via John Shepard / Camden Depot: “Trade him if you can. His performance right now is largely the product of luck with his batted ball splits. Get what you can, he is not a long term answer for anything.”

Opposing view via Stacey Long / Camden Chat: “If Roberts is back by mid-June I will be stunned. But assuming he is, I think Wigginton should be moved to first base while feelers are put out to gauge any interest in the trade market. If the best any team is willing to give for him is say, the equivelent to what the O’s got for Aubrey Huff, I would say thanks but no thanks and let Wiggy finish out the year at first with Rhyne Hughes on the bench and Garrett Atkins sent packing.”

5) Does Trembley keep his Managerial position through the end of the season, Yes or No?
7 votes Yes, 2 votes No.

Consensus Comment via John Shepard / Camden Depot: “He has already worked through what will likely be the roughest time of the season. Going the distance puts the team in better position to find a replacement this offseason as well as not being potentially handcuffed if an undesirable inseason interim manager performs well.”

Opposing view via Daniel Moroz / Camden Crazies: “I’d think not, but it doesn’t make much difference. Trembley isn’t a great manager or a terrible one, and whoever would replace him is likely to be in the same mold. I’d fire him just for batting Cesar Izturis lead-off, but if he goes mid-season then I’d prefer a place-holder instead of a permanent hire.”

5a) Will Trembley be the Manager to start 2011? Yes or No?
9-0, nobody believes Trembley will be the O’s Opening Day 2011 Manager.

Consensus Comment via Daniel Moroz / Camden Crazies: “Nope. I’d really like a manager who understands line-up construction and relief pitcher usage based on situational leverage, but that’s just setting oneself up for disappointment.”

The closest thing to an opposing view is via Peter DiLutis / Charm City Sports Talk: “No, but still undecided. If the Orioles win 75-77 games this year (which I predicted in question 3), that is a 11-13 game improvement, even with the under-performances and injuries that buried the team with a 2-16 start. If a 11-13 game improvement under those circumstances were not going to earn Trembley a long-term deal, then what was the point in bringing him back in 2010 to begin with?”

6) If Felix Pie is able to return from his injury by August 1st, should he be installed as the everyday LF for those last two months? Yes, or No?
9-0, with everyone believing Pie has to play everyday when he returns.

Consensus Comment via Steve Giles / Baltimore Sports Report: “I really like how Pie came on at the end of last season and I think he has a lot of potential. His injury was unfortunate and was a big blow to the O’s lineup. The only knock on Pie is his baserunning ability, but that can be easily fixed. He should be the starter in LF when he gets back to see if he can make any more progress and let us know if he’s ready to be an everyday player, which I think he is.”

7) Do you want Reimold to be converted to 1st-base prior to 2011? Yes or No?
5 Yes, 3 No, 1 NA

Consensus Comment via Bob Phelan / The Oriole Report: “I just don’t think hes good enough defensively to stay in left field plus I envision Felix Pie there for a long time. First base shouldn’t be too difficult for him to learn and I’d rather him be able to play the field somewhere than be a full time DH at such a young age. He could fill in periodically in left against tough left handed pitchers or in an emergency but his value is in his bat, not his glove.”

Opposing Comment via Sean Jester / The Bad Oriole: “I don’t want the O’s to use Reimold to 1B as an excuse to not sign or trade for a power 1B in the offseason. The time for experiments at 1B are finished. If Pie unseats Reimold in LF, move Reimold to DH or trade him. But don’t move him to 1B.”

Neutral Comment via Stacey Long / Camden Chat: “I think that it’s too early to tell. Once the season is near its end there will be time for that evaluation. There are just so many factors to take into consideration. Was Reimold able to get himself together offensively this year? Has Jones rebounded? Is Pie healthy and productive? Did Luke Scott ever come around with the bat and if so, do they plan on moving him or holding on to him? How did Brandon Snyder do in AAA? Is Josh Bell proving that he can’t stick defensively at 3B? In any case, I certainly don’t think it can hurt to ask Reimold to put in some time at first base in the offseason. Versatility is always a good thing.”

7a) Reimold’s OPS currently stands at .646. Do you believe he will end 2010 with an OPS at .825 and above? Yes or No?
5 No, 4 Yes

Consensus Comment via Daniel Moroz / Camden Crazies: “.646 OPS in 92 PA. To get to .825 he needs about an .865 OPS in 450 more PA. That’s something like a .365 OBP and .500 SLG, which I think is possible but not terribly likely. I’ll take the under.”

Opposing Comment via Jon Shepard / Camden Depot: “His batted ball data shows that he has been amazingly unlucky.”

8) Do you think the O’s core talent is good enough to compete with in the near-term? Yes or No?
8 Yes, 1 No

Consensus Comment via Bob Phelan / The Oriole Report: “Despite the early struggles the talent is still there. Adam Jones is showing some red flags but I still think he’ll turn out to be a well above average center fielder. Nick Markakis is as steady as they come. Matt Wieters is going to be a special player and hes starting to show his power lately. Felix Pie will be a huge component to the next winning O’s team if he can stay healthy. Josh Bell looks like hes going to fit into the mix as well. The pitching is where we will make a difference though. Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Hernandez, Britton, Erbe, Hobgood, etc (the list goes on) Its up to MacPhail to complement the team with the right free agents and trades to put us over the top when the time is right.”

9) Yahoo! / Rivals.com are currently projecting the Orioles to take Jameson Taillon with their 1st round (3rd overall) pick. Will he be the Orioles selection, Yes or No?
8 Yes, 1 NA

Consensus Comment via Steve Giles / Baltimore Sports Report: “We all know that winning in the major leagues starts with good starting pitching. Taillon is a big, strong guy who throws in the mid-90s. His 6-foot-7, 230-pound frame is worth salivating over. If he’s available, the O’s should jump on the opportunity to grab him up.”

Consensus Comment via Stacey Long / Camden Chat: “Yes. Keith Law said in a chat the other day that the indications from the Orioles that they’ll take Taillon is one of the most sure things leading up to the draft this side of the Nationals taking Bryce Harper. Taillon will likely be the best talent on the board for the O’s so it makes sense even though high school arms make me very nervous.”

10) If Bell earns his way to the Majors during the next 6 weeks, will he take over 3rd, or begin his Major League career at 1st?
4 Votes for 3rd, 4 Votes for 1st, 1 Vote for NA

Steve Giles / Baltimore Sports Report: “I have the feeling that when Bell gets called up, he’s going to be my new favorite Oriole. When you combine his demeanor at the plate and on the field and his appearance (tattoo sleeves), he has the makings of a superstar. That being said, I think when Bell finally does get called up, he will start at third base. Let’s face it, Tejada isn’t going to be around much longer and he’s already proven he is not cut out to be a third baseman (errors). Bell is a third-base prospect, so I don’t see any reason for him not to play third base in the big leagues. Plus, it seems like first base is going to be clogged up with Atkins, Hughes and possibly Reimold being in the mix.”

Jon Shepard / Camden Depot: “Only way he plays third is if Tejada is dealt.With his defensive problems, a move up and playing first will potentially be the end of him ever playing third. He needs reps there and should be in Norfolk getting them.”

11) Bonus question, free form.

Mike Gonzalez is on pace for a return by early June. By that time I believe Tillman, and Arrieta need to be in the O’s rotation. Assuming Johnson remains unavailable, my 12 man staff would be:

Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta
Hernandez Gonzalez Uehara Simon Ohman Berken Bergesen

If the O’s want Bergesen to stay in the rotation, I think they need to trade Guthrie by then. Albers or Meredith could replace Bergesen in my projected pen. What staff would you like to see?

Anthony Amobi / Oriole Post
Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman & Bergesen
Hernandez, Simon, Johnson, Gonzalez, Berken, Ohman, Uehara,

Steve Giles / Baltimore Sports Report
Starters – Millwood, Matusz, Guthrie, Bergesen, Arrieta or Tillman (haven’t decided yet)
Rest – Hernandez, Uehara, Gonzalez, Simon, Ohman, Meredith, Berken

Stacey Long / Camden Chat
In early June I hope to see the starting rotation be Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman

The first three are no brainers although I believe one of Millwood or Guthrie will be traded this year so by the end of July it could look quite different. I’m not ready to write Brad Bergesen off just yet. His sinker had really good movement against Minnesota and if he can keep that up he’ll will have success. I’m certain Jake Arrieta will see the majors in 2010, but he needs to get his walks down before I want him facing major leaguers. Tillman on the other hand has had four consecutive strong starts in AAA with a very impressive 4.25 K/BB. He looks like he’s proven all he needs in AAA and we now need to see what he can do against big league hitters. I don’t know what move they’ll make when Gonzalez comes back, it’s really too soon to tell. 3-4 weeks is an eternity in bullpen time, but if I’m looking into the crystal ball and trying to imagine what will happen, I’ll say they swap out Simon for Gonzalez and send Hernandez back to the minors rather than put him in the pen. Simon has had his moments up here but ultimately the walks will kill him. I think that Hendrickson, Ohman, Meredith and Uehara are all safe for now. If Berken or Albers implode they could give on of their spots to Hernandez, and of course it’s only a matter of time before Koji is hurt again.

Bob Phelan / The Oriole Report
My staff would be as follows:

Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Tillman
Uehara, Gonzalez, Simon, Hernandez, Ohman, Meredith, Berken

I would have Arrieta on call since I would hope Guthrie would be traded sometime before the trade deadline. If Bergesen continues to struggle like he was for his first four starts of the year than I would replace him with Arrieta. I don’t think Hendrickson or Albers have much of a place on this team if Hernandez transitions to the bullpen and Gonzalez returns to form. I would have Meredith on short notice too because I feel he is a waste of a bullpen spot if he continues to be used for only a batter or two at a time. His last two appearances have been an inning each so I hope that continues.

Jon Shepard / Camden Depot
SP – Matusz, Guthrie, Bergesen, Arrieta, Tillman

Millwood probably has the most worth in a trade and his salary makes him a huge risk in arbitration. Guthrie can still eat innings and would be easy value in arbitration.

Sean Jester / The Bad Oriole
Either Millwood or Guthrie will be traded. I prefer Millwood.

Peter Dilutis / Charm City Sports Talk
Millwood, Guthire, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman Hernandez, Berken, Gonzalez, Simon, Uehara, Ohman, Mickolio (I’d prefer Bergesen in the rotation with Guthrie dealt)