Talking Terps: 25 Games In, Big Ten Title Within Reach

Last night’s win at Michigan State was arguably Coach Turgeon’s best victory as Head Coach of the University of Maryland.

While the Spartans entered last night unranked, Tom Izzo and Michigan State have owned the Big Ten over the last two decades. To quote Ric Flair, “To be the man, you have to beat the man.”  You want a Big Ten Regular Season title? You need to be able to enter East Lansing, and leave with a win.

After coughing up a 15 point lead, and eventually being down 7 points; Maryland scored the last 14 points of the game. That was some mental toughness, and fortitude which has often been lacking from Maryland over the years.

Credit Turgeon for some growth for the Terps, and for Senior Anthony Cowan showing his experience, and refusing to lose.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Time To Close 

With the win last night, Maryland is 21-4 overall, 11-3 in the Big Ten.

The winning streak has reached 8, with 6 games remaining in the regular season (Northwestern, @Ohio State, @Minnesota, Michigan State, @Rutgers, and Michigan.)

In most current brackets, Maryland is appearing as a #2 seed.

In KenPom, Maryland is 8th overall, 34th in adjusted offense, 5th in adjusted defense, and 237th in adjusted tempo.

Maryland is in great position for their first regular season Big Ten title, but they are only 1 game up on Penn State, and the Nittany Lions have the head-to-head win.

Have to keep pushing, both towards the conference title, and also for seeing overall.

What’s Needed From The Depth

The rotation is really tight these days.

Obviously the mid-season departure of the Mitchell brothers was unexpected, and that left the front-court thin.

Turgeon isn’t going to start playing 9 and 10 guys, but I do think over the last 6 regular season games it should be a priority to try and get more out of guys 7 (Lindo), and 8 (Serrel Smith).

Last year, with Fernando on the roster, Lindo played 12.3 minutes. This year, his minutes are down to 7.8.  Last year, Lindo had a number of games where he was a force on the boards, and disruptive with his defense. There have been too many games this year, where MD hasn’t gotten that production. In his last five games, he’s played a total of 25 minutes and has 2 rebounds. That can’t happen.

S.Smith averaged 12 minutes last year. Down to 8 this year. Shot 33% from 3 last year, down to 27% this year. He showed last year he’s capable of providing some offense off the bench.

If you get Lindo back to rebounding and playing defense, and Smith capable of hitting a couple of shots a game; Maryland will be that much more capable of a deep tournament run imo.

Further down the bench, would be great if you felt like you could use any of Hart, Marial, or Tomaic a few minutes a game as needed.

Ayala, Wiggins, Morsell, & Scott

We’ve discussed all season how Ayala and Wiggins both shot over 40% from 3 last year, and this year have struggled (Ayala 26%, and Wiggins 31%).

At this point, it doesn’t matter what shots were taken and missed. It matters what shots they take, and hit going forward.

Ayala was really pressing, bottoming out with a 0 point game in 30 minutes vs. Rutgers.
In the 3 games since, he’s averaged 12.3 ppg, and been more aggressive about looking for his shot.

What I really like is that he is doing more driving to the rim.
If the shot isn’t falling, he needs to create for others, and look for opportunities to get to the line.

His confidence is up, and MD looks like a better team because of it.

Wiggins is the primary X-factor the rest of the way.  Only Jalen is potentially more talented on the the Maryland roster. Wiggins is capable of being a high-major star. He’s a got a shot, that when he takes it, I think it’s going in.  The numbers this year don’t back that up though. When the shots aren’t falling from outside he – like Ayala – needs to go to the basket.  Wiggins has shown a nice intermediate game (basically unique in today’s game), and he’s much more confident in transition than he was last year. His athleticism is improved. He rebounds well for a guard. Sometimes this year, we’ve seen him make a difference defensively.  Still, the last 4 games, he’s averaged just 7ppg, and has gone 11 of 31 from the floor.

You never would have convinced me before the season that MD would be 21-4, with Wiggins having the year he has had. You’ll never convince me now, that MD gets to where they’d like to go this season without Wiggins finding another gear.

Baltimore’s Morsell is a great barometer for this MD team. He doesn’t have to score for this MD team to win, but MD looks much better when he’s pushing the pace, and attacking the floor. I love his willingness to defend the best opposing players. His ability to defend multiple positions. How he can create for others. He also deserves credit for how he’s improved his shot over time. As a Freshman, he shot 12% from 3. Here in his Junior year, he’s making 36%.

Scott has had a quality Freshman year. He’s started 15 of the 25 games. Played in all 25. He’s averaging 21 minutes per. I don’t love that he’s taken 120 shots on the year, and 61 have been from 3.  He’s 6’7, 225 lbs. Big wide body. For me, he and MD are better with him around the basket. Sure, he can knock down the occasional 3, but I think he can out-physical some guys inside. For me, I’m challenging him the rest of the way to go do work on the glass.

Stix & Cowan

Smith is a consistent double-double.  He plays both ends. He helps out MD’s defense considerably. Not only does he block shots and disrupt, but he’s able to do so without getting into foul-trouble. He can step-out and knock down shots, and he can out-athlete most bigs at the rim. Hard to imagine him being back in College Park next year, so you want to see the Terps maximize the rest of his games in a Maryland uniform.

I haven’t always loved Cowan’s game, but I’ve really enjoyed his Senior year. I don’t think he previously played selfishly, but I think this year you’ve seen his sole priority is winning. What I mean by that, is that he’s regularly used his experience to give MD what they needed that particular game, that particular moment. Sometimes he’s setting up others. Sometimes he’s firing. He’s as quick as any guard in the Big Ten. In his last 5 games, he’s gotten to the foul-line for at-least 9 attempts 4 times. Smith and Wiggins have more overall talent, but whatever MD achieves the rest of the way; it’s Cowan who is going to lead them.

Turgeon

I’ve never been super high, or super low on Coach Turgeon.

Generally, I’ve never enjoyed his style of play, but have recognized his overall success here and elsewhere and wrote that there are multiple ways to build and win.

That said, earlier this year (at the time of the Iowa and Wisconsin losses) I did write that I was ready to see MD move on from the Turgeon era.  That was me being frustrated in the moment by a team I thought was underachieving.

I should have kept my mouth shut, and just let the rest of this ’19-’20 season play out.

Going back to the end of the ’17 season, we had talked on the BSL board of how he was signed through ’22-’23, and that it was hard to envision any scenario where he’d be gone before the end of ’19-’20.

And that we thought he’d need to accomplish something like:

1 E8

or 2 S16s
or 1 Regular Season Big Ten Title, & 1 S16

or 1 Big Ten Conference Title, & 1 S16
or 3 NCAATs, 75 wins, 3 Top 25s at Year End

’17-’18: Maryland finished 19-13 overall, 8-10 in the Big Ten, Lost in the 2nd round of the BTT, Missed the post-season.

’18-’19: Maryland finished 23-11 overall, 13-7 in the Big Ten, 5th in the Big Ten, Lost in the 2nd round of the BTT, Lost in the 2nd round of NCAAT, Finished #22.

’19-’20: Maryland currently 21-4 overall, 11-3 in the Big Ten.  Leading the best conference in the country, Terps are ranked in everyone’s Top 10.  In mid-February, MD currently looks like a National Title contender.

A regular season title, or a BTT, or a E8 would be great to see, and definitely would secure his place probably for the duration of his contract.

Basically, Turgeon is doing this year what we thought back in ’17 he’d need to do to continue to hold the job.

When he was hired, we interviewed National guys like Jay Bilas (ESPN), Mike DeCourcy (Sporting News), Matt Norlander (CBS Sports) and they were enthusiastic about him. They believed he was a Top 25 coach.

Maybe they still do, and I’d defer to their CBB knowledge and expertise overall.

That said, I’ve watched / listened to basically every game in Turgeon’s tenure here at Maryland, and I’ve admittedly been lukewarm.

I respect the success he had at Wichita State, Texas A&M, and now here at MD. (He has put MD on very stable ground.) I respect that he recruits well, and I think keeps a decent staff.

He’s made the NCAAs 9x. That will be 10 soon.  He gets credit there.
He gets credit for being ‘good’ at 3 different programs, including in the Big 12 and Big Ten.
He gets credit for 3 Top 3 regular seasons in the Big Ten, and closing in on a 4th.
He gets dinged for just two S16s in his career.

He regularly has teams which play sound defense, rebound well, and the last two years have been graded as efficient on offense.
He gets credit there.

His teams typically don’t score many points, he doesn’t create offense from defense, his teams struggle to do much / enough in transition (even when his teams are typically more athletic vs. the rest of the Big Ten), his OOC scheduling is typically underwhelming (regardless of the ranking this year), and I don’t think players develop enough under him.

There is apathy from a significant portion of the fan base. That’s also an issue.
(In Maryland’s 2 point home win vs. Nebraska last Tuesday, MD was only at 80% capacity. Not ideal for a Top 10 team in a February conference game.)

He – again, here in Year 9 – has yet to really connect with the fan base.  There’s a portion of the fan base which feels he gets graded too harshly, but it’s hard to find the Maryland fans who ‘love’ him.

And when he talks about Maryland, the University, the fanbase, the history; it doesn’t come across to me that he feels much love for Maryland.

He’s genuinely seems like a nice guy. He seems like a guy who really cares about his players and fellow coaches.

But personally, the primary issue I have had with him, is that when things go wrong, he seems more inclined to point the finger at his players (young men) vs. at himself. I haven’t seen enough self-accountability.

I saw what ESPN’s and Terp cheerleader Scott Van Pelt had to say about negative fans.

I don’t want to be that negative guy.
It’s not fun.

I’m a Maryland fan, and Turgeon is the HC.
I want him to be as successful as possible.

Turgeon doesn’t need me or any other perceived ‘doubter’ to embrace him.
He’s had plenty of success as a HC, and he’s currently the Coach of a Top 10 team.

He doesn’t need me to embrace him, but I’d like to.
Yesterday’s win certainly helped – that was a big deal.

I guess my current thought is finding balance.
If I was too quick after the Iowa / Wisconsin losses to say that I was ready to move on from Turgeon; then I feel I’d also be too quick to say all is well because of this winning streak.

Sometimes you need to let seasons and time fully play out.
If Maryland wins a Big Ten Regular Season title, or the BTT, or 2+ games in the NCAAT; then that will speak for itself. As a Maryland fan, I’ll be rooting for Turgeon to earn the opportunity to laugh last.