Terps 4-1; Headed To Players Era Festival

The University of Maryland Terrapins have started the year 4-1, but the results so far are a case of glass half-full vs. glass half-empty; depending on your vantage point.

The Terps have had some early adversity that could hinder or mold this year’s squad as a key stretch of the schedule looms.

Maryland’s only loss this year was a disappointing home letdown against nearby Georgetown back on November 7th. And while the Terps have rattled off three wins in a row against three inferior rosters since, it hasn’t been easy and hasn’t always looked pretty.

Even the most impressive win of that stretch — 89-82 over Marquette — had a degree of disappointment due to a scary moment involving starting center Pharrel Payne, who had to be stretchered off the court with a lower body injury.

When Payne went down, it felt like a season ending injury.

Since then, the news with Payne has been surprisingly positive; and it appears he might be back soon.

Maryland was without Payne against Mount St. Mary’s, and the Terps needed Overtime (and a Xfinity Center record 41 point from Diggy Coit) to survive being upset by the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Mountaineers.

Against MSM, MD was missing two other projected starters –  Myles Rice (1 game so far this year, with a lingering ankle injury), and Solomon Washington (also an ankle injury).
Rice is expected to lead MD as the PG, and Washington has been billed as Maryland’s best perimeter defender.

On top of those injuries, MD was also without reserve George Turkson Jr.

A pessimistic view of that game would be, “Maryland should be able to beat Mount St. Mary’s, even with 3 starters missing.” 

An optimistic view of the result would be, “Maryland found a way to win.  MSM was a tournament team a year ago. They got 40+ points from a reserve guard.  It’s understandable that MD is not totally in-sync considering the missing starters, and the limited time this roster has been able to practice together. And worth reminding that Coach Buzz Williams put this roster together completely on the fly after taking the job in April.”

The Concerns

Injuries

Again, recent reports suggest Payne could be back soon, but the Terps’ first game without him didn’t go great. Maryland found itself in overtime at home Wednesday night with Mount St. Mary’s — KenPom’s 268th-ranked team. Did Payne make that much of a difference, or did the Terps just not adjust effectively? Regardless, a five-point Maryland win felt a lot more like a moral victory for the visiting team.

In Payne’s absence, fellow senior Collin Metcalf slid into the starting lineup against the Mountaineers. His performance didn’t inspire a ton of faith that he can be a reliable stopgap until Payne returns. Despite the start, Metcalf played just 15 minutes and scored no points while collecting 4 rebounds. Senior power forward Elijah Saunders picked up some of the slack in the paint with a 14-point, 5-rebound performance, but it was very evident that Maryland is lacking size and reliability down low with Payne out of the lineup.

Maryland’s 6-foot-10 freshman Aleks Alston also received some run against Mount St. Mary’s, using his 10 minutes to score 3 points and rip down 2 boards. Perhaps he can develop and give the Terps some meaningful minutes, but it’s not going to be easy to replace a senior with a freshman.

Metcalf did start 29 games for Northeastern last year, and averaged 2.4 blocks per game.  When called upon this year, MD is going to need the Senior to provide some type of defensive presence, and rebounding.

You’d like to think the offense as whole would look crisper when Rice is consistently available. The former Pac 12 Rookie of the Year / 1st Team All Pac guard, should be able to help.

The defense hasn’t been good enough yet, and you’d similarly like to think that Washington will be able to make a difference on the perimeter.

Turnovers

The Terps are currently averaging just over 13 turnovers per game. And they haven’t even faced their stiffest competition yet. Winning at this pace while not taking care of the ball is not sustainable.

Maryland ranks 186th in the country in turnover percentage on offense according to KenPom. That’s not going to cut it in Big Ten play, or a against a team like Gonzaga, who the Terps play on November 25 and boast the 3rd-ranked defense in college basketball.

The Big Ten currently has seven teams with a top-30 defense, according to KenPom, and Wisconsin ranks 31st. The Terps play all seven of these elite defenses in their first nine conference games this season. Correcting the turnovers have to be a priority for Williams or some of these games could get ugly.

Again, the numbers here aren’t particularly surprising since Rice has played once, and Washington has yet to play at all.

Shooting/Offensive Rebounding

It’s relatively simple. If you can’t shoot well, you better be able to get some offensive boards or you’re in for a long day as a basketball team.

Per KenPom, Maryland currently ranks 163rd or worse in offensive rebound percentage, 2-point field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, and effective field goal percentage. The Terps have scored many of their points at the free-throw line or in transition off of turnovers they’ve created, which is great, but not always sustainable.

Teams that can’t shoot don’t typically fare well in basketball as the sample size gets larger, and those problems are compounded when you’re unable to collect some of the misses and maintain possession.

Reasons for Hope

Getting Healthier

It seems like a catastrophic Payne injury has been avoided. A player of that caliber avoiding major injury, especially when it looked as bad as it did initially, is always a positive.

It appears Rice could be close to returning from his ankle injury as well. Getting back two key pieces should give Maryland a boost as it enters a more challenging portion of the schedule.

We’ll see if either can suit up for the November 24th game against UNLV, which will be a semi-home affair in Nevada for the Running Rebels and a tough spot for the Terps.

Immediate Opportunity

With great challenges comes great opportunity. That’s how Maryland needs to approach the rest of its schedule, particularly some upcoming games.

The second game of Maryland’s participation in the Players Era Festival in Paradise, Nevada, next week is a matchup with No. 13 Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are no joke, but the Terps are dodging a bullet by not having to play them out in Spokane.

A neutral site should give Maryland a better chance to pull the upset, which presents an opportunity for the first marquee win of the Williams era. It won’t be easy and will require a clean game from the Terps, as Gonzaga owns one of the best defenses in college basketball and will make teams pay for their mistakes with explosive offense at the other end.

But even a closely contested loss there could help build confidence and springboard the Terps into Big Ten play.

Future Looks Bright

While not particularly helpful to this year’s team, a strong recruiting class for next year can make a rebuilding season more tolerable for a coaching staff and fan base.

Williams has always been a solid recruiter, and that hasn’t changed. With the signing of Austin Brown, Kaden House, Adama Tambedou, and Baba Oladotun on November 20th, Maryland currently has the No. 3-ranked recruiting class in the country.

In his brief time at the helm in College Park, Williams has already signed three of Maryland’s top nine highest-ranked recruits in the past 15 years. Not only does the current class look stacked, but it also stands to reason that Williams will consistently bring talent into his program year after year