UNC has had a great year, and might be under-rated at 19th overall.
The Tar Heels are 21-6 overall, 11-2 in the ACC and have won 14 of their last 16 games. RealTimeRPI.com shows UNC as being ranked 11th in RPI, and having the 16th hardest Strength of Schedule.
MD has beaten UNC in 3 consecutive seasons, but got ripped by the Heels (108-91) in their last trip to the Dean Dome. Zeller and Henson is going to be an interesting match-up for Williams.
I’m not sure which of the Terps will be assigned the difficult match-up of Freshman Harrison Barnes.
MD has played well against the Tar Heels recently, because Roy Williams style of play (pushing the ball, quick transition) really works to the strengths of the Terps.
The Terrapin guards have to step-up. Stoglin has scored 67 points in his last 3 games, it will be fun to see if he can keep up that level of production against the Heels. Something else I am interested in seeing is if Coach Gary Williams continues to increase his use of the zone defense.
I think MD can lose today, and still make the NCAA’s – but they would need to win 2 in the ACCT. In that scenario, (Loss at UNC, wins at Miami, and over UVA) MD would likely be the 6th seed in the ACCT. I think that would set-up an opening round game vs. Georgia Tech, and a potential 2nd game vs. FSU or VaTech. Even if MD won those 4 games (Miami, UVA, GaTech, FSU/VaTech) the Terps would be one of the last in.
On the other-hand, if MD beats UNC tonight (and wins out) their path is obviously easier.
The ACC is 5th in RPI, and 4th in the Pomeroy rankings. In this down year for the Conference, I still think 6 teams get to the NCAA Tournament. Duke, UNC are locks. After Virginia Tech’s victory over Duke last-night, I think they are as well. Even with Singleton’s injury, I expect Florida State to hold on and advance to the NCAA Tournament. I think 2 of 3 out of BC, MD, and Clemson will go.
I’ve stated all year that I expected MD to lose tonight. When you are playing a quality team on the road, that should be the expectation. Here on game-day though, I like the Terps to breakthrough with a victory. Maryland has shown all season they can play with quality teams, but have yet to show then beat them. I think we are seeing the Terps improve as the season progresses. They are shooting better at the line, and from 3. They are getting better looks in 1/2 court sets. If they have regressed anywhere it has been with their perimeter defense (though their defense was stifling in the 2nd half Wednesday night against FSU). With the emergence of Stoglin and Howard; combined with Gregory consistently hitting that short jumper – MD is becoming a dangerous opponent for anyone. I think (hope?) that proves tonight when the Terps figure to play with the desperation of a team trying to make a statement.
79-75 Terps.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.