Terps Basketball Q&A w/ National Analysts

The University of Maryland Terrapins has 6 games remaining in their regular-season schedule prior to heading to Greensboro for the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.  At 5-5 in the ACC, bubble-talk has returned to College Park.

With that in-mind Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to a few National Analysts for their thoughts on the Terps. Those interviewed were:

Mike Huguenin, Yahoo Sports
http://sports.yahoo.co/top/expertsarchive?author=Mike+Huguenin

Jay Bilas, ESPN
http://jaybilas.com/
http://search.espn.go.com/jay-bilas/
http://twitter.com/#!/JayBilas

&
Mike DeCourcy, Sporting News
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball
http://twitter.com/#!/tsnmike

Baltimore Sports and Life: “I would imagine the most glaring issue to Maryland’s resume as a whole, is the lack of a marquee win. The Terps lost by 9 to Pittsburgh on a neutral-floor (were 14 of 30 at the foul line), lost by 4 to Illinois on a neutral-floor, lost by 3 to Temple on a neutral-floor, lost by 7 at Duke, lost by 8 at Villanova (up 12 with 10 minutes left, allowed 19-0 run).  As far as their NCAA Tournament prospects, how damaging was it to have not broken through with a win against those teams?”

Huguenin: “I think the Terps are in trouble when it comes to an NCAA bid. The lackluster RPI is one thing, but to be 0-8 against RPI Top 50 teams, 3-9 against the RPI Top 100 and 6-9 against the RPI Top 200 – that’s what hurts. Maryland never should be 6-9 against teams in the Top 200. More than half the Terps’ wins are against teams outside the RPI Top 200, and that is not an NCAA resume.”

Bilas: “The good news for any team is that the Committee has to select 68 teams, and this not a strong field of at-large candidates. Maryland does not stand out, but is still right there in the mix with a number of other teams that have yet to distinguish themselves with a “marquee” win. I believe Maryland to be an NCAA Tournament team, but often times the decision seems to come down to what is on paper rather than what you see on the court.”

DeCourcy: “At some point when you’ve lost to just about every team of tournament quality you have to come to the realization that your team is not of tournament quality. It’s really that simple. It’s not a matter of being 0-8 against the RPI top 50 and every loss was against Pitt, Kansas or Duke. Even Boston College, a dubious tournament candidate at best, owns a sweep of the Terps.
The closest Maryland has come to beating a tournament contender from a major conference is a victory at home over Clemson. That’s it. If the Terps had lost all their big non-conference games and then played near the top of an ACC that is not overpowering, the pre-conference struggles would have been dismissed. That hasn’t happened.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Terps are 16-9 overall, 5-5 in the ACC. I have MD losing at Virginia Tech, and losing at UNC. That would have the Terps finishing the regular season at 20-11, 9-7 before the ACC Tournament. The Terps would have 7 Top 100 wins (Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami, Penn State, Charleston, NCST). If that occurs, do you think MD advances to the NCAAT with two ACCT wins?”

Huguenin: “I’m not sure they go 4-2 the rest of the way. Beating Virgina does nothing for the NCAA resume; that’s a case of a game where it’s more important not to lose than to win because of the other teams’ cruddy RPI. It’s vital that Maryland wins at least two of its remaining three road games. As for winning at Virgina Tech, the Hokies are in NCAA danger, and they haven’t always played well under Seth Greenberg in those situations. Miami may have packed it in by the time the Terps travel to Coral Gables. As for the home games, Chris Singleton’s injury makes it a lot easier to beat Florida State and NCST and Virgina aren’t very good. I agree that the road schedule does offer some opportunities for “good” wins. But the Terps better make sure they take advantage of those opportunities.”

Bilas: “It is not the number of wins. It is whether Maryland is among the 37 best teams after the Automatic Qualifiers are factored in. One can use a historical perspective to gauge whether a team feels or looks like an NCAA Tournament team based upon Committee decisions in the past, but this is a different year. I believe that this bubble is historically weak, and there will be more losses in the at-large pool than ever before. It will be very competitive, however.”

DeCourcy: “That’s a lot of suppositions. Not my favorite game. I’m not going to give the Terps this win or that win. I’d say with six games left, anything less than 5-1 is going to make it difficult to get into the field — and even that might not do it.
But if I look at your scenario, Maryland would finish with only a single top-50 win, and even that is shaky because Florida State is No. 50 today and set to play without Chris Singleton for who knows how long. I know the bubble is weak, but I don’t see how someone in the committee room could sell a team that’s in the 1-9, 1-10 range in terms of top 50 wins.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Understandably the ACC is perceived as being ‘down’ this season. However, the league is still ranked 4th overall in the Pomeroy rankings (ahead of the Pac 10, SEC, Mountain West, A10, CUSA, etc. etc.) I know the NCAA Selection Committee is not supposed to evaluate teams on a conference basis, but my assumption is that even a down ACC gets 5 bids. Do you agree?”

Huguenin: “I think the ACC could get as many as seven (though that’s extremely unlikely), but I also think it could get as few as three. Duke and UNC are locks. Virgina Tech, Clemson, BC, FSU, and Maryland are the others in the hunt. FSU is in trouble without Singleton. The Seminoles struggle to score, and Singleton is their best player. I can see them fading out of the NCAA picture despite being in third place right now. If Singleton is indeed out for the season, that will be taken into account by the NCAA Selection Committee and obviously won’t help FSU if it’s on the bubble. BC needs some road wins. The same goes for Clemson, whose non-conference schedule doesn’t help. The Hokies don’t have a marquee victory, and unless they beat Duke, they aren’t going to have one. Still, I think the ACC is going to get five, though I won’t be totally surprised if it is just four.”

Bilas: “Being ranked fourth is down for the ACC. In most years, the ACC is first or second. When excellence is the measure, and it always has been in the ACC, the league is down this season. But, that is just a comparison to years past. The number of teams into the Tournament field relates to the ACC’s strength relative to the rest of the nation this season, and this season only. I see the ACC in the mix for 5 teams or so. But, there is still a long way to go, and a lot can and will happen.”

DeCourcy: “That depends on how things develop down the stretch. Florida State was in great shape Saturday afternoon, even with that loss to Auburn. Today? Who knows what losing Singleton does? I could see it being as many as six or as few as three. Counting up the numbers in one’s head is harder this year, because there are three extra bids to disperse. But I do know the ACC is awfully short on marquee non-league wins; even Carolina lost most of its biggest games outside the league.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Maryland came into Saturday’s game against Boston College averaging 78 points a game (24th Nationally) but are not a great offensive team. Their worst FT shooter is Jordan Williams (who has been improving, 26 of last 35) but he also gets the most attempts.  With the limitations of the outside shooters (collectively 34% from 3), defenses sag on Williams, and dare the Terps to shoot.The Freshman guards (Stoglin, and Howard) have both had their positive moments, but have also had trouble getting the ball to Williams in 1/2 court sets.

As ACC play has gone on, the bench has been shortened with Padgett, Weijs, and Parker receiving even less time. The Terps look their best against teams that want to play up-and-down, and allow Maryland to create offense from defense and score in transition. Do you think the Terps should adopt the mentality of Coach Williams’ mid-to-late 90s teams and pressure the ball relentlessly full-court? Use the entire roster, and just continue to rotate bodies?”

Huguenin: NA.

Bilas: “Gary Williams is a Hall of Fame coach, and by that I mean the Naismith Hall of Fame. He belongs there, and he belongs there right now. He knows how this team needs to play. Maryland’s lack of offensive consistency and efficiency puts a lot of pressure on its defense to get stops and generate offense. That can wear a team out, especially a young team. Just like a pitcher that has no run support, it is tough to throw shutouts every time on the mound. That said, a faster pace and a full court game suits this team better. In the postseason, however, games tend to be more half court games.”

DeCourcy: “All-out fullcourt pressure can only take a team so far. Let’s say you’re playing Duke at full strength. Do you want to pressure Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith? Do you want to lose by 80? Pressure can be effective as a changeup; it can work if a team is behind in a game in order to generate more possessions. It can work against bad teams, but it isn’t how I’d want to play long-term. And why would I want to play a style that’s not conducive to my best player?”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Sophomore Williams has been a walking double-double this season. He always plays hard, has very good hands, and an array of post moves. Outside of his FT shooting, where do you believe his game can improve? Where do you rate him Nationally among post players?”

Huguenin: “One of our writers does a weekly “Power Rankings” of each position, and we had Williams as the No. 3 Center in the Nation last week. The guy can play. I don’t think he gets the National notice he deserves because the team isn’t winning more. Last season, he was overshadowed by Vasquez. I would think Gary Williams knows that if not for Jordan Williams, the Terps would be near the bottom of the league standings.”

Bilas: “He is among the top thirty players in the nation, irrespective of position. He is very productive and just a sophomore. He will improve his face up shot to 17 feet or so, and will refine his free throw shooting. His stroke is pretty good. It is the mental side that he needs to work on. He makes them in practice. He just needs to transfer that to the game. Some of it may be tension. Tension is the enemy of every shooter.”

DeCourcy: “Among actual low-post guys, who play with their back to the basket and draw double-teams and can score with real post moves, I’m not sure there’s anybody I’d rate ahead of him outside of Jared Sullinger. I like Jordan a lot. There aren’t a lot of guys willing to do the low-post dirty work.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The two Senior starters are Gregory and Bowie. Considering Gregory came into this season with 2 career starts, and Bowie came off the bench as a Junior after starting most of his Sophomore year; I think the Terps have to be relatively pleased by the production they have received from the duo. Gregory is active on the glass, run the court well, is capable of hitting that 12 foot jumper, and is a good weak-side defender. Once moved off the ball, Bowie has played better and is averaging about 10ppg having increased his FG and FT %’s. Thoughts on the Senior’s and their progression?”

Huguenin: NA.

Bilas: “Both have had nice careers and play really hard. To be contributing members of an ACC Championship team is pretty special, and pretty rare. And, both have done a nice job of leading the younger players. I really admire that. Both players have continued to work and have come a long way.”

DeCourcy: “Gregory has always been a defensive specialist type. Bowie is a fringe-type role player. It would be nice if their contributions had led to more victories in some of those close games, but each has been a solid program player for Maryland.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The other Senior is Cliff Tucker, who is the Terps 2nd leading scorer, despite coming off the bench. He is athletic, can shoot from outside 38%, and also has the ability to get to the rim. He has scored in double-figures 16 times, but I’m typically left with the thought he should be capable of even more. What is missing from his game?”

Huguenin: NA.

Bilas: “Cliff is playing with young guards, and that is not easy. Last season, the guards were veterans, and every other player on the floor could concentrate on doing their jobs without concern about ball security or providing help to Vasquez or Hayes. They didn’t need help. These young guards do. That affects everyone. Maryland has done a good job this season. They compete, and they play really hard. I like that about this team. They are inconsistent, which you expect from youth, but Gary doesn’t have to beg them to play.”

DeCourcy: NA.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Mosley came to College Park as a Top 60 recruit, and as a prolific high-school scorer here in Baltimore. With Vasquez and Hayes setting him up, Mosley had a strong Sophomore year shooting 51% from the floor,  81% from the line, and 39% from 3. He averaged double-figures mostly by scoring inside effectively, and hitting intermediate jumpers. This year, while continuing to play good defense and rack-up floor burns, his offense has struggled. (Scoring down from 10.1ppg to 8.6ppg, shooting down to 43% from the floor, and 25% from 3). Do you limit his shots, or do do you give him more attempts get out of scoring slump? (Has shown some recent positives with 16 at Georgia Tech, and 20 vs Longwood)

Huguenin: NA.

Bilas: “Mosley is a legit player. He is affected by the loss of Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes as much as anyone. Now he is in top two in the scouting report, and he is being guarded as a primary scorer. He is doing fine. Vasquez and Hayes didn’t just set him up, they drew defensive attention, and that created openings for Sean to exploit. It has been tough this year, but that kid brings effort every day. You can never fault him for effort. That is pretty special.”

DeCourcy: “What you’re missing is not so much that Hayes and Vasquez were setting him up, but that they were drawing away defensive attention. That’s where Mosley has suffered. There aren’t enough guys on this team who force a defensive to pay close attention. I’d suggest his issues are more a function of playing on a team with limited offensive options.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The aforementioned Freshman Guards Howard, and Stoglin have received a lot of playing time this year. Howard has started the last 3 games and is really coming on. His decision making, passing ability and shooting have all shown improvement. Not the most athletic, but decent foot speed. Stoglin is a blur up and down the court. He can play out of control, but he can also light up the score board. Appears to be a 2G in a PG body. It is often said the biggest maturation for players occurs between the Freshman and Sophomore seasons. What development will be you looking for them?”

Huguenin: NA.

Bilas: “Every player sees the most improvement between seasons. The amount of work that a kid has to put into his own development over the summer is pretty staggering. And, the jump after the first year is dramatic because you know what to expect and how tough it can really be. When you play for Gary, you know about working hard and bring a blue collar attitude. If they take that into their off-season development, they can be really good players.”

DeCourcy: “In watching Stoglin play as a high schooler, I thought he would be ideally suited to operating as a third guard — available to back up both spots, to play either point guard or shooting guard. If he could make himself into an elite defender, he might be able to progress beyond that. I like Howard’s size and versatility. I don’t think he’s as audaciously talented as Michigan’s Darius Morris, but I see a lot of similarities. It would not surprise me if Howard were to make a step forward next year similar to what Morris did as a sophomore.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Next year the Terps are bringing in a couple of highly regarded guards, Nick Faust and Sterling Gibbs. Assuming Williams returns to College Park, Maryland’s roster could look like:

1) Howard, Gibbs
2) Stoglin, Faust
3) Mosley, Parker
4) Palsson, Padgett, Pankey
5) Williams, Weijs

Palsson is probably better suited for the 3, but the Icelandic Freshman has shown an ability to play up at the 4 (at-least in limited stretches) and good things seem to happen with him on the court. I figure even if he starts, that Padgett and Pankey will get plenty of minutes backing him up. I also anticipate that Parker (the most athletic player on the team) will get significant time (minutes similar to what Tucker is receiving now) at the 3.

What are your thoughts when looking at that projected roster?”

Huguenin: NA.

Bilas: NA.

DeCourcy: “I like that group. I’m disappointed in Padgett’s progress; I thought he would be more of a factor this year, and it’s too bad because that’s maybe the weakest position.
If either Faust or Gibbs is ready to contribute immediately, Maryland could be top-4 in the league next season.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Coach Williams has taken 4 schools to post-season play,  has the 3rd most wins all-time in the ACC (Dean Smith, Mike Krzyewski), and is closing in on 700 career wins. Will he be voted into the Hall of Fame?”

Huguenin: “Gary Williams is a Hall of Fame Coach. He’s not the easiest guy to get along with and he’s not afraid to make his opinions known about the state of recruiting these days – but his record is extremely impressive, he has coached some fabulous players and his team comes to play every time out.”

Bilas: “As I noted earlier, he should be there already. Gary has accomplished more than many current members of the Hall of Fame. They say it is just a matter of time, but I am personally tired of waiting. He deserves to be in now. Gary Williams is one of the best coaches in the history of this game. Period. His accomplishments and longevity put him on the ACC’s Mount Rushmore with Dean Smith and Coach K.”

DeCourcy: “I don’t know if he will. That’s hard to judge. I know that he should. That’s not debatable.”