With Thursday’s hard fought 74-68 victory over Iowa, who previously unbeaten in the Big Ten, the Maryland Terrapins have re-entered themselves in to the Big Ten conference title chase. Maryland, which was an overwhelming favorite to take the Big Ten title in the preseason, had fallen off the pace a bit with last Saturday’s 74-65 loss at Michigan State, dropping them to 6-2 in Big Ten play and two games back in the loss column of Iowa. Thursday’s game was a must win for the Terps Big Ten title hopes, as falling three games behind Iowa and two back of Indiana – whom the Terps don’t get to play at home – would have been all but curtains for their regular season championship hopes. In fact, the Terps would have fallen in to a fourth place tie with Purdue and Ohio State had they lost on Thursday night and they would also have been a game back of Michigan, who already beat them in Ann Arbor on January 12. But as it stands, the Terps are just a game back of the Hawkeyes and Hoosiers in the loss column and are equal with the two on seven conference wins. It’s a wide open conference race, unlike last year when Wisconsin dominated the conference and won the league by two games over the Terps, despite Maryland’s 59-53 win in College Park in the only meeting between the two teams. Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the conference title contenders.
(Discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Maryland (18-3, 7-2) – @Ohio State, @Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, @Minnesota, Michigan, @Purdue, Illinois, @Indiana
It appears the Terps have two tough stretches remaining; the next three games with back to back road trips to Columbus and Lincoln and then the end of the regular season with trips to West Lafayette and Bloomington wrapped around a home game with Illinois. Considering that Sunday is a major revenge game for the Buckeyes and then 72 hours later the Terps have to travel 1200 miles to Lincoln to play the Huskers in front of 15,000 people in Pinnacle Bank Arena, a split of the next two road games would be more than acceptable. After that, the schedule eases up and the Terps have a real shot to go on a run. Purdue looks to be fading and Wisconsin likely won’t play the Terps as tough as they did in Madison. Having one of the road games at lowly Minnesota (6-15, 0-9) is a huge break and then comes the revenge date against the Wolverines. Maryland may need to sweep those February games before the trip to West Lafayette because those two road games in Indiana in the final three are very tricky. A lot could be on the line for both teams when the Terps and Hoosiers hook up to close the regular season on March 6.
Iowa (16-4, 7-1) – Northwestern, Penn State, @Illinois, @Indiana, Minnesota, @Penn State, Wisconsin, @Ohio State, Indiana, @Michigan
The Hawkeyes could very well restore their two game edge on the Terps over the next week as they have home layups against a Northwestern team that looks to have crumbled (they’ve dropped four straight and the last two have been ugly blowouts against Indiana and Michigan State) and then 11-10 (2-6) Penn State. After that, their schedule gets thorny with 5 of their final 8 games away from Carver Hawkeye Arena and two games with fellow conference title hopeful Indiana. It would be a shock if they dropped a home game before the Hoosiers come to town on March 1 and with sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue already in the bank, Iowa still has to be considered the conference title favorite.
Indiana (17-4, 7-1) – Minnesota, @Michigan, @Penn State, Iowa, @Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, @Illinois, @Iowa, Maryland
The Hoosiers have been red hot over the past month and a half as Tuesday’s overtime loss at Wisconsin was their first defeat since the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Duke on December 2. Indiana’s defense was a national punchline after that loss, allowing the Blue Devils to score a whopping 1.52 points per possession but Tom Crean has gotten his kids to tighten things up since. Surely they’ll bounce back on Saturday against Minnesota but after that, a difficult closing stretch kicks in with five of their next eight on the road, including trips to the Breslin Center and Carver-Hawkeye Arena. As mentioned above, they have two with Iowa and a split might be ideal for the Terps conference title chances.
Michigan (16-5, 6-2) – v. Penn State (NYC), Indiana, Michigan State, @Minnesota, Purdue, @Ohio State, @Maryland, Northwestern, @Wisconsin, Iowa
The good news is that the Wolverines have home shots left against the co-leaders Iowa and Indiana as well as the rivalry date with Michigan State in Ann Arbor. It’s also a break that they play a “road game” against Penn State in Madison Square Garden tomorrow afternoon. However, they likely need to sweep the Hoosiers and Spartans next week to stay in the race as three of the next four are on the road, where Michigan has been a much different team, already losing by double digits twice at Purdue and Iowa. Drawing Wisconsin on Senior Day for the Badgers in what will be an emotionally charged atmosphere with the retirement of Bo Ryan and everything surrounding that is a tough break as well.
Purdue (18-4, 6-3) – Nebraska, @Maryland, Michigan State, @Michigan, Northwestern, @Indiana, Maryland, @Nebraska, Wisconsin
You get the sense that the Boilermakers might have peaked back in December when they were still unbeaten and getting swept by Iowa with last Sunday’s 83-71 loss in Iowa City may have eliminated them from the title chase already. They likely need to go at least 4-1 in that brutal February that includes two with the Terps as well as trips to Michigan and Indiana and a home game with Michigan State to keep their faint title hopes alive.
Ohio State (14-8, 6-3) – Maryland, @Wisconsin, Northwestern, @Rutgers, Michigan, @Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, @Michigan State
Could a team that lost on its home court to Texas Arlington and Louisiana Tech in back to back games before Thanksgiving possibly win the Big Ten regular season title? Probably not but if the Buckeyes can beat Maryland on Sunday, they’ve got a pretty favorable stretch in February to set themselves up for a potentially massive March. Two games in the final few weeks of the season against Michigan State is really rough considering that you know Tom Izzo will have his team in top form down the stretch like he always does. At least the Buckeyes get Iowa and rival Michigan at home, where they’ve been much better than they have away from Value City Arena. Still, this is a longshot.
Not pictured is Michigan State, who is 5-4 in league play and would practically need to win out to be in the hunt. If they can somehow find the form they had in November and December when Denzel Valentine was the no-doubt-about-it player of the year to that point, it’s possible but back to back road games at rival Michigan next Saturday before going to Purdue 48 hours later will likely snuff out their faint title hopes (and Indiana comes calling immediately after.)
It’s gonna be tough for the Terps. They don’t play Iowa again and they don’t get a home game against Indiana, which is a real shame. They need some help but luckily the two teams in front of them have to play each other twice. KenPom has Iowa winning the conference by two clear games, finishing at 15-3 while the Terps and Hoosiers are each projected to finish 13-5 (Purdue is projected at 12-6, Michigan at 11-7 and Ohio State at 10-8.) Far be it from me to be critical of the premier advanced statistics and prediction model in college basketball but it certainly seems like it will be a tight race to the finish. Iowa is certainly still the favorite but if they slip up a few times, the Terps head to head victory on Thursday could turn out to be crucial. An outright title for Maryland looks unlikely but even a shared championship with so many strong teams at the top of the conference would look good for the selection committee come Selection Sunday.
