Just under three weeks ago, the University of Maryland was blasted 89-70 in their trip to Bloomington, Indiana. Tonight, the Hoosiers (17-7 overall, 7-4 in the Big Ten) come calling to College Park (9PM, Big Ten Network). Will the Terrapins be ready to defend their home court?
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Maryland enters the game tonight still sporting a Top 25 National Ranking (#19), and an attractive 19-5 overall record (7-5 in the Big Ten). Unfortunately, the play over the past 9 games (beginning January 7th at Illinois) has been poor. Just once in that stretch (home vs. Michigan State January 17th) can it be argued that MD played well.
This past weekend, we saw the Terps taken to the woodshed for the 3rd straight time on the road. This most recent loss vs. Iowa, following the scripts we saw in the losses vs. Ohio State, and originally at Indiana. An average margin of defeat by 19.6 points in those 3 games.
Just a brutal stretch of play, which makes getting a home win all the more paramount. Especially since it is an opportunity to answer one of those previous beatings. (Ohio State, and Iowa will not be visiting the Xfinity Center this year. So any answers to those teams this year would need to come at the Big Ten Tournament.)
In the previous game, Indiana had a 3 point half time lead. In the 2nd half, they put up 51 points to cruise to victory.
Some notes from that loss:
– Both teams shot over 50% from the floor, with the Hoosiers reaching the 60% plateau (30 of 50 overall).
– Indiana was 15 of 22 from 3, as Yogi Ferrell, and Collin Hartman combined to go 10 of 11 behind the arc.
– Indiana was also 14 of 18 at the foul line.
– The battle on the glass was competitive, with Indiana holding a 27-24 edge.
– The teams had 11 (Maryland) and 10 (Indiana) turnovers respectfully.
– Each of the Hoosiers 5 starters played at-least 29 minutes.
– In 10 minutes of play, Dodd had 0 points (or attempts), and 1 board. Cekovsky had 0 points (or attempts), along with 1 board in his 5 minutes.
– Graham had a productive 6 boards (and was 3 of 3 from the floor) in 17 minutes.
– Wells and Trimble were a combined 7 of 19 from the floor.
– Wells, Trimble, and Layman had a combined 5 FT attempts.
– Nickens and Wiley were a combined 7 of 13 from the floor, including 5 of 10 from 3, finishing with a total of 21 points.
Since that game, Indiana has lost three of their last five games (most recently beating Michigan on Sunday). The Hoosiers allowed at-least 82 points in each of the three losses.
The Terps are still averaging 70.8 ppg, but have not broken even the 60 point barrier three times in these last nine games. In the other six games, they have been in the 60’s three times, and never scored more than 75 points.
Yesterday Inside MD Sports quoted Coach Turgeon as saying he wanted Maryland to play faster. I was pleased to see that sentiment at-least exist. I feel this team has to get more baskets in transition. They settle too often for slowing the ball down, and getting into half-court sets. With no low post scoring threat, they get zoned to death.
To create more transition opportunities, I would like to see a greater willingness to press from the beginning of games. In his time at MD, we’ve seen Coach Turgeon regularly only press as a means of last-resort. When his team is trailing, and needs a spark. With MD starting a number of games slowly, I think this could be a way to get the team going earlier. Create some pressure, gain some turnovers, and get some easier opportunities for the offense.
The drawback on playing faster is that they might have more turnovers of their own. Additionally, if they are pressing, they could run the risk of being beat over the top for easy baskets. I think increasing the tempo is an easy choice to make though, given that I believe the offensive limitations are currently Maryland’s largest issue (with the lack of post scoring being issue 1A).
However, a leopard does not change his spots – and I do not believe that Coach Turgeon is going to adopt wholesale changes to his preferred style of play. We should not expect Nolan Richardson’s 40 minutes of Hell. We can anticipate more subtle alternations.
That pushes you back to looking at other things that the Terrapins have to do to win games vs. talented teams. MD will continue to face a lot of zone defense, so the Terrapins have to make shots. That puts pressure on the perimeter shooters (who are facing defenses which don’t sag, because they are not worried about providing help defense in the post), but to quote that horrible saying – “It is, what it is.”
Beyond that Trimble, Layman, and Wells have to get to the line. Getting to the charity stripe has been a staple of the offense all year. As we mentioned above, this trio had just 5 combined FT’s in Bloomington. That simply can’t happen. Of course, opposing teams know getting to the line is a priority for the Terps, and they are looking to avoid fouling this group. For me, the key is being committed to attacking the basket. I would also be looking to run the offense through Layman.
The Dodd / Graham / Cekovsky trio is not going to provide post scoring any consistency. Their offense is limited to put-backs. You can live with that. What they do have to provide is defense, and rebounding. Graham really battles, but he often gives up size and athleticism. Cekovsky has good (not great) athleticism, but also has limited strength. Dodd has had positive moments this year, but has regressed in recent weeks against better competition. At Indiana, Dodd and Cekovsky had 0 points, and 2 boards in 15 combined minutes. That is a non-existent presence. Block-out. Get the hands up. Defend the rim, and crash the glass. If MD can get a transition offense going, there could be opportunity to get these guys some run outs. Jordan Williams was excellent with that, as he worked to beat his man down the floor. Dodd, and Cekovsky run the floor well enough that some chances should be there. That would be a bonus though. The necessity is improvement on the boards from the duo.
Nickens / Willey / Pack have to consistently give MD some some additional scoring. Sunday in Iowa was a horrible game for this trip as they went a combined 2 of 17 from the floor, including 2 of 13 from 3. Nickens and Wiley are capable outside shooters, but there needs to be a larger commitment from them to attack the basket as well.
The perimeter defense has to improve, and MD has to get back to making the extra pass. Ram is probably MD’s most active perimeter defender. Of course his minutes have to be limited, because he is a complete liability on offense. Still, if teams are having success on the perimeter, Ram needs to get into games and apply some on-the-ball pressure. When this season started, we saw the Terps committed to moving the ball, getting strong spacing, and finding open teammates. Here in mid-February, opposing teams have plenty of tape on MD. Adjustments have been made. Can MD adjust back? We shall see.
Stats:
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
Maryland – 107.1 (72nd Nationally)
Indiana – 118.7 (5th Nationally)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
Maryland – 93.7 (39th Nationally)
Indiana – 106 (265th Nationally)
Adjusted Tempo
Maryland – 65.5 (154th Nationally)
Indiana – 67.4 (65th Nationally)
RealTimeRPI
Maryland – 16th
Indiana – 31st
Strength of Schedule
Maryland – 39th
Indiana – 33rd
Final Thoughts:
I thought MD was due to play well in Iowa, and that prediction wound-up looking silly. We knew going into that game that MD was giving up size in the post, but had advantages with their guards and wings. Sadly, that game was over was quickly.
Coming off that poor prediction, I’m a bit gun shy today. Maryland has played well exactly once in the last Month+. I feel like they should be able to put together a strong effort, but it is hard to call for it based on what we’ve seen from the Terps these last 9 games. Even harder having seen Indiana just roll MD a few weeks back.
That said, I’m expecting a big-time atmosphere in College Park tonight. It was Winter Break when Minnesota came to MD. With respect to Rutgers, Northwestern, and Penn State – nobody in the MD crowd cared about those opponents. The Michigan State game had a good crowd, and National TV lights; but there is something different when the home team (and crowd) is looking for revenge. Also a 9PM weekday crowd is a different animal vs. the early afternoon weekend crowd.
The Xfinity Center needs to rock, and MD needs to find a way to earn their 20th win on the year. Can MD win? Sure. Will MD win? I can not call it until I see what adjustments Coach Turgeon makes. I’ll feel much better about MD the rest of the year, if the Terps put up some points tonight. As we said above, since these teams last played, Indiana has lost 3 games where they allowed at-least 82 points. Will the Terps step up? Again, we shall see.
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