The All-Star Break Arrives Just In Time For The Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles plated 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th Sunday afternoon, narrowly avoiding a New York sweep, and ending a 5 game losing streak.

At the All-Star Break, the O’s lead the Yankees by a game in the AL East.

At 58-38, the Birds are 20 games over .500, but are just 9-13 overall since June 21st.

These last 22 games have been a tough watch, particularly this last week vs. the Cubs and Yankees.

The break here comes at the perfect time.
Perfect time for the Birds to catch their breath.
Perfect time to regroup.
Perfect time to finalize targets for reinforcements.
Perfect time to ask some questions.

Santander is a Free Agent after the year.
Do you want to extend him?
Do you want Kjerstad to replace him?
If you trade Kjerstad, and Santander walks; what’s the optimal solution for RF going forward?

Are the O’s good with Mountcastle, and O’Hearn sticking around 2-3 more years?
Or would they like to replace at-least one of them with Kjerstad and Mayo at some point next year?

The O’s want to limit Rutschman’s time behind the plate.
That means more time at DH, where he hits better.
It also means more time for a backup C.
Would be nice if the backup C could hit better.
Obviously Samuel Basallo could represent that soon.

Do the O’s believe they’ll be able to extend Rutschman?
Do they want Basallo to be around as a possible replacement if they don’t?

If they do think they’ll be able to extend Rutschman, are they better off trading Basallo now to bring back a SP with upside and control vs. having him around as a backup C (even one who catches more than a normal backup C), and another guy that gets 1st / DH ab’s?

Is Jackson Holliday truly untouchable?
If so, you have to expect he takes over 2nd base soon (no later than Opening Day ’25).
When that occurs, than Westburg moves to 3rd.
Westburg at 3rd means Coby Mayo’s O’s future is likely 1st, DH, RF.

Maybe there are injuries which change things.
Maybe Holliday is eventually converted to CF as some O’s fans have conjectured.
Maybe there is another trade somewhere that creates changes.
Those potential variables aside, Holliday at 2nd and Wesburg at 3rd in ’25 is the most likely scenario.

What the Orioles want, and what ever O’s fan should also want, is an extended window of contention.
Annually you want to enter every season with aspirations.
You want to be able to get to the playoffs multiple times and see what happens in those Short Sample Sizes vs. any one off playoff scenario.
That said, you never know if you’ll have a better chance that right here, right now.
You (the organization) haven’t won a World Series since 1983.
Despite this recent poor stretch of play, there are only two teams (Cleveland, and Philadelphia) that have a better winning percentage than the O’s here at the All-Star Break.

My feeling is what the Orioles and their fans should want is the best of both worlds.
You want to give yourself as much flexibility as possible going forward, and you want to increase your odds here in the immediate.
I keep saying it, because I believe it. The playoffs are largely luck of the draw.
But you don’t want to get the playoffs and feel like you have a glaring hole either.

Felix Bautista was the best closer in baseball last year, but hasn’t been available to throw a pitch for the Birds here in ’24.
I have faint hope that he potentially becomes available in September, but that’s probably a pipe dream.

Kyle Bradish finished 4th in the AL Cy Young voting last year.
He was limited to 39.1 innings this year.

For the O’s to be as good as they’ve been again this year overall basically without that duo is fairly remarkable.
That said, there’s no crying in baseball, and it is what it is.

The O’s know their bullpen needs at-least 1 high leverage addition.
The O’s know they need a front-end starter with upside.
The O’s also know that with Bradish out for likely all of next year, and Burnes being a Free Agent; that they need to get a Starter with front-end upside that has remaining team control.
Someone they know they can pair with Rodriguez as the front-end of the rotation to begin ’25.
Even if that would be addition is made now, I’ll be hopeful that they’re able to extend Burnes.
If not, they’ll be shopping (Free Agent or trade) for another starter.

I don’t really see trading Holliday or Mayo as something Orioles GM Mike Elias would realistically do.
I think he wouldn’t (I know I’m not) be excited about trading Basallo, and Kjerstad; but I think trades of those two are possible.
You should be able to get a lot back if you are willing to trade Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Beavers, and McDermott.

At the absolute minimum, I think Elias needs to come out of the deadline having added 1-2 quality relievers, and a 3rd or 4th starter.
That’s not a high bar.
It’s possible and probably probable that could be accomplished without giving up your best pieces.

The best case scenario to me would be adding a high impact reliever, and a starter you could squint at and believe is a #2 starter on a quality team.
In that scenario, I think you would have to be comfortable with losing a couple of your better pieces.

If Elias decides he is willing to trade Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Beavers, and McDermott; I don’t think the possible additions have to be limited to the guys purportedly available. 
I think Elias has the ammunition to find what he needs, and get a deal done somewhere.

The Orioles have arrived at the All-Star Break with a team capable of a winning a World Series title.
The Orioles have arrived at the All-Star Break with a team that has some clear flaws and limitations.

Both sentences are true.
What are the O’s going to do, to augment what exists, and give themselves the best opportunity possible for the remainder of ’24, without prematurely limiting their window of contention going forward?
Right now is why Elias gets paid the big bucks.