The O’s are expected to send Wieters to AAA to start 2009, and not promote him until April 17th – which guarantees that he will not be arbitration eligible until after 2012, or a Free Agency until after 2015.
Jon Wilt, a columnist for Orioles Hangout, said it best last summer:
“Wieters is a good player, a Baltimore Oriole, and in need of major league experience now, or very soon. In 2015 who knows what’s going to happen. He might be a monster. Or he might be a bust. He might be an Oriole, or a Rockie or a Mariner or a Padre. He might be playing out his last year tied up in his original contract with the O’s, or he might have been extended in 2011. I can see why I team would play these little contract games, but I think it’s an ultraconservative strategy of an organization that doesn’t have the confidence it can extend a player 3-4 years down the road, and is scared to lose a few million dollars while wasting ten times that in other areas.”
Yesterday, in the Boston Herald, Wieters agent Scott Boras provided comments illustrating why extending Wieters will be difficult.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?&articleid=1158662&format=&page=1&listingType=sox#articleFull
My take remains that the O’s should be offering Wieters an extension now, where they hold all the leverage…
What I would be attempting to accomplish is presenting an offer to Wieters now, which he would not be able to say no to, and would make him an Oriole for what figures to be the duration of his most productive ML seasons.
At his worst he is going to be Varitek in his prime, and at his best is going to be Piazza with actual defense. You offer him enough up-front guaranteed dollars, that he can not turn it down. He is playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond, years away from FA…. Even Scott Boras would have to admit, that if the O’s offer big guaranteed extension dollars…. That Wieters would be taking a large risk turning it down… (not to mention turning down an immediate raise).
Whenever Wieters starts playing, he is going to provide good offense at an important defensive position. If you believe he will have achieved perennial All-Star, and near MVP level production in his pre-arbitration years like I do… then you should also believe Wieters will make a lot of money in arbitration. Which is why an extension now should be the priority… before he has played a game.
I would believe most Oriole fans agree with this, the question is the extension to be presented.
If you present a 8 year deal, some of the guaranteed money has to be limited, because you would only be buying out the first year of Free Agency.
An 8 year for something like $50-$55M would be the expectation for a long-term deal.
I arrive at that number, because I would expect Wieters to make $62.5M over 7 years, without a long-term deal signed.
He signed a $6M signing bonus… Right now he figures to go something like:
2009 – $500k
2010 – $1M
2011 – $1.5M
2012 – $12.5M
2013 – $13.5M
2014 – $15M
2015 – $17.5M
= $62.5M
To refine this argument, lets say that I am wrong… and that $52.5M is the low-point of what Wieters could make during his first 7 years… and that my estimate of $62.5M is the high.
$57.5M over the 7 years would be the in-between, and should be a number that both sides can agree is within reason of what Wieters will have obtained if he were to go year-to-year.
If Wieters accepted 8yrs $50-$55M, he would be giving up the year of Free Agency, and accepting less money than he would probably make on a year-to-year basis… because he would be removing his risk of a career altering injury, and not reaching his expected level of performance.
A large contingent of Orioles fans do not think an extension is possible because Boras is his agent. If you do not think Boras will ever have a client extend, would you prefer that the O’s approach Wieters after year 3 like Markakis?
By that time, he will be established, and dominating… He figures to have been so productive, that he will making money in arbitration regardless – and FA would now be on the visible horizon.
I suggest a scenario where you extend Wieters for his entire prime… for 8 years guaranteed, at an avg of $10M per year, with team options pushing the deal to 10yrs, at an avg of $12M per year…
In my scenario, they would pay Wieters $45M over the first 6 years, $60 over his first 7, $80M over his first 8.
2009 $500k
2010 $4.5M
2011 $4.5M
2012 $5.5M
2013 $15M
2014 $15M
2015 $15M
2016 $20M
2017 $20M Team Option, that vests on performance in Year 8
2018 $20M Team Option, that vests on performance in Year 9
= 8yrs $80M Guranteed, and 10yrs $120M possible
The O’s hold the current leverage…. Wieters and Boras can think he is going to make that money, but they do not definitively know he will produce like expected… do not know that he will physically hold-up (there were questions about his back at GaTech)…. All that they know is that they have his $6M signing bonus…
If the O’s offered Wieters a contract that could extend to as long as10 years, the O’s could be paying for Wieters first 3 years of Free Agency.
Boras would be a fool to let that money go off the table. Wieters will be 29 when he completes his 7 years with the O’s and is eligible for free agency. Boras would be crazy to allow that period to be extended under the circumstances, unless the additional years are priced appropriately.
You have to offer an extension, that allows this to be his last-big contract… if he is done catching at age 29, he should be a productive bat at 1st for 3 years.
You have to present a number for those first 3 FA years, that makes the deal too much for Boras/Wieters to turn down.
I think he is going to just dominate, and if he does… his arbitration numbers as a Catcher are going to be very high.
I would compare his likely arbitration numbers to those of Ryan Howard.
Howard won the ROY, and MVP prior to reaching arbitration… when he got to arbitration, he went over $10M…
While Wieters might not reach Howard’s offensive production… I think that Wieters will come close, and will be doing so as a Catcher… because of that, I would expect Wieters to make roughly $12.5M in his first arbitration eligible season in 2012.
Those that disagree would say that Wieters isn’t going to hit 50+ homers and he isn’t going to win MVP in his second season in all likelihood…. That he would be competeting with other catchers, and not first baseman.
They would point to Joe Mauer going from $400k to $3.75M million from year 2 to year 3, when Mauer signed an extension of 4yrs $33M.
They would say that Evan Longoria is going to make $25 mm in his first 7 years. That Albert Pujols will have made about $48 mm (and he would have been eligible for free agency after his 6th season).
That Miguel Cabrera will have made about $55 mm, and in the cases of Pujols and Cabrera, they labored at close to the minimum wage for 3 years and established themselves as full-blown, healthy superstars before their teams ponied up big bucks for years 4-7.
If Tampa had extended Longoria’s deal into FA as far as I proposed extending Wieters, the total dollars would be closer.
The O’s certainly gain something by signing a deal like the one I suggested…. They get the knowledge that they will have him for 10 years, not 7… which will take him to around age 32, and what should about the end of his life as a catcher. The O’s get the knowledge of knowing just how much they will be paying Wieters over the four years of arbitration…
I think the low-end likely hood of Wieters is Varitek in his prime… I think $80M guaranteed over 8 years, with the possibility of $120M over 10 years, or $12M per year is worth it… especially, when I believe what Wieters figures to make in arbitration… and how much harder it will be to sign Wieters when he is producing those numbers…. And how I would like to avoid extending Wieters into his mid-30s.
Again, it goes back to what are you trying to accomplish. If your goal is to have Wieters through-out his prime, and people believe in March 2009 that Boras will not let Wieters sign an extension… Do you think Boras will be more likely to let Wieters sign an extension in Dec 2011?
If you want to sign Wieters to an extension after his 3rd year… when he figures to be an established star… will it, or will it not be harder to get Wieters to sign a long-term deal? How much more might it cost you? There is zero reason to believe it will be easier to extend him 3 years from now, then it is now.
I think the likely scenario if you approach Wieters after his 3rd year, is that Boras would want you to extend him into his mid 30’s.. And probably several years past his prime.
If you want the best chance at extending him… and you want the best chance of having him for just the first three years of what be his FA…. you find a way to extend him now.
Wieters is not like other players… he has a $6.6M signing bonus… he has Boras as an Agent, he is a Catcher… and he is already your most talented player, without ever having had played a Major League game.
You can not treat his contract, like you would treat others.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.