With one early Saturday morning tweet, the vibes in Birdland instantly changed.
A new era of Baltimore Orioles baseball was ushered in on May 21, 2022 when Adley Rutschman took the field in his first MLB game. The 1.1 of the 2019 draft and player selected by Mike Elias and his regime to lead the way into this new era, Rutschman took it all in from behind home plate for a moment and then proceeded to go 1-3 with a walk in his debut, joining Matt Weiters and Manny Machado in the “my first MLB hit was a triple” club.
The Orioles lost Saturday’s contest to Tampa Bay, but it didn’t matter. Adley Rutschman was behind the plate and Kyle Bradish was on the mound. Two of the organization’s top prospects were battling against Tampa Bay, not Durham. After watching Rutschman toy with Double-A and Triple-A pitchers last season and listening to promises of “he’s coming when he’s ready” for long enough, the waiting was finally over.
I enjoyed the game with my wife and kids from our home, yet I could feel the weight of the moment flowing through my living room, making it feel like I was in the ballpark, celebrating with all of Birdland. For everyone who stuck by this franchise, has bought into the Mike Elias plan, and has painfully followed the major league club for the last few years, Saturday night was a momentous occasion and a major sigh of relief. There’s still an immense amount of work to be done, but Adley Rutschman is a Baltimore Oriole now, and he’s here to stay.
The rebuild isn’t over. We won’t see notable prospects traded for veteran starting pitching help and major league pieces quite yet, but the journey to respectability and yearly playoff races took a big step forward this weekend.
However, that doesn’t give enough credit to what much of this major league roster has already achieved this season. Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santandar are all playing well. Ryan Mountcastle will hit his stride soon enough. Jorge Mateo has been a very pleasant surprise. And this bullpen is quite the unit. Currently ranking fifth in terms of FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement, young arms like Felix Bautista, Dillon Tate, and Keegan Akin are shining. There are plenty of holes on the major league roster, but just like throughout the minor league system, the top guys who are clear pieces (or hopeful pieces when talking about prospects) to a future Orioles playoff team are cementing their roles.
I don’t like taking one singular game out of a 162 game season and over analyzing it, but take Sunday’s game as an example of the spirit and determination of this roster. Spenser Watkins failed to record a single out before being hit by a linedrive comebacker and exiting the game. In the midst of a brutal stretch of no days off, the Orioles needed 27 outs (ended up needing 33 outs) from an already heavily taxed bullpen, and found themselves down 4-0 in the first inning to a Tampa Bay team which has had Baltimore’s number, to put it lightly.
More than four hours later, Adley Rutschman crossed home plate in the bottom of the 11th inning, giving the Orioles a 7-6 victory, their third walk-off victory in four games, and a series win over the Rays.
If there was one moment that stood out, it wasn’t Adley’s triple. It wasn’t the fact that his first at-bat resulted in a barrage of changeups and a strikeout, only to watch Rutschman lay off said changeups in subsequent at-bats, forcing Tampa pitchers to adjust their strategy (unsuccessfully). It wasn’t even watching Rutschman frame a pitch so well it led to an ejection and a Kevin Cash whine fest. It was watching him channel all of the energy from the weekend and using it to give fans a glimpse of who he is as a leader.
So, where do the Orioles go from here? Well, as Mike Elias stated on Sunday afternoon, there are “blue skies ahead” for Birdland. Technically, there were black skies and downpours over Birdland not too long after that statement was made, but it didn’t take long for the rain to move on and allow Orioles fans to celebrate one of the most impressive wins witnessed in a long time. Quite the metaphor there. The dark days aren’t completely gone, but like a passing summer thunderstorm, they won’t be around long.
On Sunday afternoon, Grayson Rodriguez largely breezed through six full innings with Norfolk, striking out nine and finishing with 86 pitches under his belt. If he throws another six innings or can top 90+ pitches in his next start, the discussions on when Rodriguez makes his MLB debut will only intensify. He’s weeks, not months, away from throwing to Adley Rutschman at OPACY. Fellow top pitching prospect DL Hall isn’t too far behind him. Elias has said multiple times that as long as Hall can throw strikes and stay healthy, he will be in the big leagues sooner rather than later. The latest update on Hall from Elias was that Hall’s performance has been so good, he’s ahead of the timeline they had set for him.
The Orioles entered 2022 with Jordan Lyles as the number two starter. They could end the year with a rotation of Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Kyle Bradish as the top three arms. Upgrade is an understatement.
More bats are on the way as well. As of May 23, Kyle Stowers is riding an eight-game hitting streak and coming off a game in which he hit three home runs, giving him five home runs last week (hit .480 in six games at Charlotte). Stowers is going to force a decision soon. Either he assumes a major league job after a Santander trade or some other trade involving big league pieces, or Stowers becomes a highly attractive trade piece, making my earlier point about it still not being time to trade big prospects a moot point.
Gunnar Henderson is playing with very little, if anything, left to prove in Double-A, with Jordan Westburg hitting very well after an early slump and showing everyone exactly why every single one of his teammates and coaches who has spoken with us at On The Verge says, without hesitation, that Westburg is a future major leaguer, no questions asked.
Terrin Vavra, who had been using his advanced approach at the plate well in a seemingly smooth transition from Double-A to Triple-A, will begin rehab games in the coming days and should be full-go shortly. He’s an underrated player in this system who fits the mold of a longtime major league utility man, allowing the Orioles to finally move on from someone like Chris Owings.
Just like the rotation, we’re very close to seeing an infield of Mountcastle, Vavra, Westburg, and Henderson. Three of those four pieces could be in place by the end of the season.
I should also briefly mention the upcoming draft, since that literally is coming up next for the Orioles. Here’s what we know….not much. The list of potential 1.1 picks has been narrowed down to a small handful of names, but as to who is on the list and how they rank, that’s unknown. With five picks within the first 80 or so selections of the draft and a recent influx of around $1 million added to their draft pool (thanks to the Tanner Scott/Cole Sulser trade with Miami), the Orioles have a massive bonus pool to play with and a quartet of high-upside high school talents to choose from. I could be wrong, but I don’t see the likes of a Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, or Jackson Holliday slipping past Baltimore. There’s too much money available to the Orioles and too many other places where they can save some early-round money to spend later on.
Combine this draft class with an impressive 2021 international signing class and what is sure to be an even better 2022 international signing class, and an already deep minor league system, and the Orioles will have the makings of a talent pipeline ready to be switched over to full flow, meaning regular promotions and dealings. Envision AJ Preller’s recent barrage of trades for proven pitching talent, while being able to keep his most prized prospects who are already, or will soon be, making an impact at the major league level (hopefully with some much better injury luck though for the arms Elias acquires).
The Orioles are no longer in the phase of waiting 3-4 years for teenage prospects to blossom and reach the upper levels of the minor leagues. Those top prospects are now in Baltimore or will be in Baltimore in the coming weeks. The major league product is fun again, with home run chains, on-base celebrations, on-field kisses, and gritty victories. The players feel it, the coaches feel it, and the messaging coming from the front office is even a little different.
While there’s still work to do, real money to spend, never ending development to happen, and a bit more losing before winning becomes a regular thing in Birdland, it’s ok to take a moment after this weekend, take the Adley Rutschman look around, and soak it all in. The Baltimore Orioles are coming.
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Orioles Analyst
A former high school teacher and coach in the mountains of Virginia, Nick Stevens has been writing about the Baltimore Orioles and their minor league system for five years. When he isn’t at a minor league stadium, he’s enjoying a Wizards game or supporting his alma mater, James Madison University. Co-Host of The Verge.