With a 10 game lead the O’s can afford to rest the hot hotting J.J. Hardy.
The Baltimore Orioles are without their Gold Glove shortstop J.J. Hardy for the third consecutive game tonight and he will be out for at least the next couple of games as he has flown back to Baltimore to have an MRI on his back.
Head on over to the BSL Forums to discuss the Orioles infield woes and how long they should sit J.J. Hardy if there is a clean MRI.
J.J. Hardy is no stranger to back problems. The stud shortstop experienced lower back spasms back in April which led him to miss a handful of games. In August of last season he missed two games with the same issue.
J.J. Hardy also missed five games in May of 2009 due to lower back spasms, one game in April of 2009 with mid back tightness, three games in June of 2007 with lower back soreness, and six days in Milwaukee Brewers camp back in March of 2006 with, you guessed it, lower back spasms.
Even with the decrease in power, J.J Hardy was having a fantastic season. He was nearly a league average hitter overall, posting a 99 OPS+ and 98 wRC+, and his .320 on-base percentage was the highest of his tenure with the Baltimore Orioles.
J.J. Hardy was also one of the hotter hitters the past month as he was hitting .323/.382/.527 with five home runs, four doubles, and a 156 wRC+ since August 5th. His walk rate was below 5% when he began this hot streak and he had an 8.8% walk rate during it while striking out less than he had all season.
And the glove. Well, we know how good his glove is. But, just in case you forgot, let us take a look at some of the numbers. His +17.7 UZR is the eighth best mark in the game for any position and he leads all American League shortstops in UZR.
Overall, J.J. Hardy was well on his way to a four-WAR season, both in fWAR and rWAR. This is not easily replaced. The good thing for the Orioles coming into this season was that they had a young stud by the name of Manny Machado who could take J.J. Hardy’s place in a case like this but Machado is out for the season and he was not replaced.
This leaves the Orioles with only one legitimate option at shortstop in Ryan Flaherty who owns a career +1 UZR in 184.1 career innings at the position.
But the offense is going to suffer. Jonathan Schoop has a 70 wRC+ at second base. Ryan Flaherty has an even worse wRC+ at 65. Third baseman Kelly Johnson has an 80 wRC+ while first baseman, and sometimes third baseman, Chris Davis has a 94 wRC+.
The good news is that with tonight’s victory the Orioles have a full 10 game lead over the two second place teams: the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays. Their playoffs odds sit at a pretty 99.9% so they have the luxury of resting J.J. Hardy for as long as needed rather than giving him a cortisone shot and rushing him back out there.
Hindsight is 20/20 and Ben Zobrist and/or Adrian Beltre would look really good in an Orioles’ uniform right now but there is still a lot to be optimistic about thanks to the 10 game lead in the American League East.
Ryan Flaherty is far from a legitimate J.J. Hardy replacement but, baring some unforeseen major injury, J.J. Hardy should be ready to take back shortstop duties fully healthy and in time for the playoffs.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing at The Florida Post and you can follow him on twitter: @FigureFilbert
Jonathan C. Mitchell is the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Florida Post and has had articles featured on ESPN and FanGraphs, among others. He is a former contributor to DRaysBay and Marlins Daily (formerly part of ESPN’s SweetSpot Network) and currently resides in Tampa with his beautiful wife and daughter. In his spare time you are likely to catch him at a local coffee roaster talking about sports, espresso, or single-origin coffees.