http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-quest-for-respectability-2009-edition/
“Baltimore Orioles
Key gains: Mark Hendrickson (3 WS), Cesar Izturis (8 WS), Koji Uehara, Ty Wigginton (15 WS), Gregg Zaun (8 WS), Felix Pie (2 WS), Rich Hill (1 WS), Ryan Freel (4 WS)
Key losses: Daniel Cabrera (6 WS), Lance Cormier (4 WS), Ramon Hernandez (12 WS), Garrett Olson (1 WS)
Net: +18 WS
Since the Rays no longer can be considered among the bottom tier of clubs (an American League pennant kind of changes the hierarchy, no?) we need a new team to take their place. The Orioles, with 11 consecutive losing seasons and three straight years of 90-plus losses fit the bill. They’re in.
Entering this offseason Baltimore needed to overhaul a starting rotation that last year threw just 882 innings, the lowest total in baseball. Their starters also had a collective 5.51 ERA, which was tied with the Rangers for the worst ERA by a starting staff. So maybe we shouldn’t be so surprised that Baltimore opened camp with 27 pitchers on the 40 man roster.
It’s like American Idol for pitchers.
The Orioles are auditioning for replacements for Cabrera and Olson, who combined for 312 of those innings last year and hope that newcomer Uehara will be one of those to step into the breach. A nine-year veteran of Japan’s Central League, Uehara has a 2.91 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP (for his career!) in 1,400 innings while pitching for the Yomiuri Giants. With a legendary walk rate of 1.1 BB/9 for his career, Uehara has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the Giants the last couple of years, and has been successful in whatever role he has assumed. But the Orioles have such a need for their rotation, they aren’t considering Uehara as anything but a starter.
Joining Uehara in the rotation will be former Cub Rich Hill. After a solid 2007 in which he made 32 starts and had a 3.92 ERA and 4.17 xFIP, Hill struggled at the beginning of last season with his control and quickly fell out of favor with manager Lou Piniella. You can’t blame Piniella for his lack of patience: In just 19 innings over five starts last year, Hill walked 18 batters. Overall, he threw 353 pitches, but just 194 were for strikes and only 19 of those strikes were the swing and miss variety. He didn’t do much better after his demotion to the minors, walking 28 in just 26 innings before shutting his season down with back spasms. It was a curious turn for a pitcher who led the Cubs in strikeouts in 2007 with 183 and owned a better than league average walk rate of 2.9 BB/9. The Orioles are banking on Hill rediscovering his control and returning to his ’07 form. Early signs aren’t encouraging: In the Venezuelan Winter League, Hill surrendered 23 walks in 21 innings.
Another former Cub hoping he’s moved on to greener pastures is Pie. A former top prospect, he’s struggled to make the jump to the Show. In 287 career plate appearances, he’s hit just .241/.312/.325. Absolutely, that suffers from a small sample size. However, it has to be noted that Pie has at times struggled to make contact. Last year his contact rate when swinging at balls in the strike zone was 84 percent and for his career, he’s whiffed in 28 percent of his at-bats. Those aren’t horrible rates… if you’re a power hitter. However for Pie, speed is his game. So while a career 1.5 GB/FB ratio is a step in the right direction, he’ll need to make more contact if he’s ever going to stick.
Last year, the five Orioles shortstops played more than 200 innings in the field. This year, they’re tuning to Izturis in hopes he can solidify defense up the middle. Last summer, Izturis had a .869 RZR for the Cardinals, which ranked as the second best rate (behind former Oriole Miguel Tejada) among National League shortstops and was rated as +19 on the Fielding Bible’s plus/minus scale.
By adding Wigginton and Freel, the Orioles feel they have improved their depth in position players. But their rotation is still no match for the rough and tumble AL East. “
Overall, this is a strong analytic review of the Orioles off-season. However, if I have any qualms with the Sabermetric community, it is that a lot of their members seemingly have a hard time with projecting youth.
That is a broad-statement I am making, and the reality is I should dial it back and point to specific examples.
Over-time I will do that.
For right now, I am going to point out that my general perception is that just like the Scouting community sometimes fails to see the evidence provided by Sabermetrics… Sabermetric constitutes sometimes fail to look at youth (particularly age and experience), prior Minor League performance, and tools when projecting players forward.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.