Bills (0-0) at Rams (0-0)
Thursday 9/8 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Bills 28, Rams 26
ATS
Rams -2.5
Total
Over 52.5
Analysis
The Rams will be fired up as energy will be high from winning a Super Bowl the last time they took this field. However, the Bills are the odds-on favorites to win this year’s Super Bowl and have stars everywhere. This game should be a thriller. With Josh Allen trending up and Matthew Stafford’s health in question, I give the edge to Buffalo in this one.
Saints (0-0) at Falcons (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Saints 23, Falcons 14
ATS
Saints -5.5
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
In their first game without Matt Ryan on the roster in 14 years, all eyes will be on how the Falcons handle the pressure against their main rivals. I’m not convinced the Saints, under the direction of new head coach Dennis Allen, will have a great year, but they look to me the better team this week. In the “reverse fixture,” I can see the Falcons winning, but with a big question at their biggest position, I think it’s too much to ask for them to beat the Saints in Week 1.
49ers (0-0) at Bears (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
49ers 12, Bears 10
ATS
Bears +7
Total
Under 41.5
Analysis
It’s Trey time in San Francisco. The Bears do have one of the better backs in football in David Montgomery, so an established ground game will obviously help stabilize any turbulence. End of the day: seven points is a lot to give for any team, especially a road team with a young quarterback. San Francisco’s roster is better than Chicago’s, but as far as betting goes, I’ll take the points.
Steelers (0-0) at Bengals (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 24, Steelers 20
ATS
Steelers +6.5
Total
Under 44.5
Analysis
The Bengals are the obvious choice to win this game. They’re at home and are coming off a Super Bowl loss which inevitably will motivate them to come out firing on all cylinders. At the same time, they’re going up against the 5-time defending league leaders in sacks. This should be one of the better games of the week, and although I think Kenny Pickett plays better than expected in his NFL debut, I’m going with the Bengals to win the game (but picking the Steelers to cover).
Eagles (0-0) at Lions (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 30, Lions 20
ATS
Eagles -4
Total
Over 48.5
Analysis
The Eagles are my NFC sleeper this year. I’m a big fan of Jalen Hurts to start with. Not only does he have another year with young stud wideout Devonta Smith, but he also gets to throw to Pro Bowler A.J. Brown. The Lions will have a lot on their plate defensively. I think they keep it close throughout, but Philly scores a late touchdown to put the game out of reach.
Patriots (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 24, Patriots 17
ATS
Dolphins -3
Total
Under 46.5
Analysis
Miami has had an infusion of speed, hope, and energy from multiple sources this offseason. They always play the Patriots well in Miami (7-3 at home vs. New England in the last 10 games). This year, while something just seems off about the Patriots, something just seems right about the Dolphins.
Ravens (0-0) at Jets (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 30, Jets 14
ATS
Ravens -7
Total
Under 44.5
Analysis
The Ravens are a better team and on a mission this year. The first half of this game might be back and forth, but I expect Baltimore to pull away comfortably in the second half. Lamar Jackson is back.
Jaguars (0-0) at Commanders (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Jaguars 28, Commanders 27
ATS
Jaguars +3
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
The one thing that’s held the Jaguars back was a reputable head coach who’s a proven winner. Now, with Doug Pederson in charge, Trevor Lawrence has a chance to start his NFL career in earnest. Washington seems like a team that has significant work to do still, even though the season is now here. I think the Jaguars win a one-possession game.
Browns (0-0) at Panthers (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Panthers 22, Browns 17
ATS
Panthers -2.5
Total
Under 41.5
Analysis
The Baker bowl. Quite frankly, I don’t think either of these teams will have winning records when the season is over, but in this game, a spurned Baker Mayfield, the Panthers’ pass rush, and the cacophony in Cleveland leads me to see only one outcome: a Panthers win.
Colts (0-0) at Texans (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Colts 31, Texans 13
ATS
Colts -8.5
Total
Under 46
Analysis
This game is between two teams running at different speeds. The Texans’ best player might be rookie cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. While he figures to be a very good player for a long time, if it’s even debatable that your best player is a rookie, your roster is in bad shape. Conversely, the Colts add Matt Ryan to the league’s best ground game, and also have the services of Michael Pittman at receiver. Indianapolis will be one of the tougher teams in the league to beat, and I can’t see Houston coming close this Sunday.
Giants (0-0) at Titans (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Titans 28, Giants 23
ATS
Giants +5.5
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
I like Brian Daboll. I think he’s going to be good for New York, and Daniel Jones in particular. Saquon Barkley looks good to go, and when healthy, he’s among the very best players in the entire league. I see this one coming down to the wire, with the Giants having the ball at the end of the game but coming up just short. If this game was being played in New York, I’d probably pick the Giants. It should be a good one.
Packers (0-0) at Vikings (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 26, Packers 23
ATS
Vikings +1.5
Total
Over 48
Analysis
Losing Davante Adams is a major blow not only to Aaron Rodgers’ game, but to Green Bay’s chances to be a winning team this season. I know that seems strange to say, but anyone who’s paying attention can admit the Packers, who’ve won 13 games in each of Matt LaFleur’s first three years, are facing an uphill battle in 2022. The Vikings are better, the Lions believe, and Chicago is their archrival. The first goal for any team is to win their division, and the Packers are far from a lock to do so.
Chiefs (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 30, Cardinals 27
ATS
Cardinals +4
Total
Over 53.5
Analysis
In what I think will be the most entertaining game of the week, the Chiefs look poised to win a shootout in Arizona against the Cardinals. Despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, Kansas City is still led by Pat Mahomes, who in my opinion, is the best player in football.
Raiders (0-0) at Chargers (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 31, Raiders 27
ATS
Chargers -3.5
Total
Under 52
Analysis
Except for tight end and wide receiver (and that’s close), I don’t see any position (head coach included) in which the Raiders are better than the Chargers. This game should be close as it’s a fierce rivalry, but I think Los Angeles is going places this year and will start their journey with a convincing win this Sunday afternoon at home against the Raiders.
Buccaneers (0-0) at Cowboys (0-0)
Sunday 9/11 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 23
ATS
Cowboys +1.5
Total
Push 50
Analysis
Dak Prescott is one of the best things to happen to the Cowboys franchise since their last Super Bowl victory in 1995. He’s a leader, which they need. He’s proven his toughness, coming back from a gruesome injury. He’s very talented and has continued to press on despite losing key players around him (Amari Cooper, Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, etc.). The Buccaneers are a strong bet to win it all this year, as is any team led by Tom Brady. However, losing Rob Gronkowski and multiple key offensive linemen is justification enough to take the Cowboys outright in this one.
Broncos (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0)
Monday 9/12 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Seahawks 26, Broncos 23
ATS
Seahawks +6
Total
Over 42
Analysis
Russell Wilson returns to the house he built. Since he became a Seahawk in 2012, Seattle has posted an incredible home record of 63-23 (playoffs included). Wilson wasn’t the only one that made plays for Seattle, of course, but he was the catalyst. Now, playing for a different team for the first time in his pro career, he will get a taste of what he benefited from for the last 10 years: Seattle’s 12th man.
The x-factors in this game are the head coaches. Pete Carroll (.619 win percentage with Seattle) could be in the Hall of Fame one day. While Denver’s Nathaniel Hackett is a very smart coach, he’s not Carroll. Getting six points at home with that crowd for this game is a bet I’m comfortably making.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.