Last week: 8-3-2 ATS, 6-7 over/under
Year to date: 71-58-7 ATS, 68-65-3 over/under
Falcons (4-5) at Panthers (2-7), Thursday 11/10 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Falcons 28, Panthers 21
ATS
Falcons -3
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
It feels like Atlanta is one of those teams that will be competitive in every game they play this year. Home, away, day, night, whatever…it feels like they’ll always be in it.
Carolina, however, feels like a team that will show flashes every now and then, but as currently constructed, can’t be counted on to consistently perform.
The Falcons being a road favorite when the records aren’t a whole lot different is important to note. Especially as the second half of the season begins, having endured close games (regardless if you win them or not) is extremely valuable. I give the nod to Atlanta in this one by a touchdown.
Seahawks (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-5), Sunday 11/13 at 9:30 am ET
Pick
Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 22
ATS
Seahawks +2.5
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
I’ll keep saying it—Seattle is for real and Pete Carroll, as of now, is my Coach of the Year. They’re tied for 4th in the league in takeaways (15), and linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the NFL in tackles (90). Seattle is unquestionably playing cleaner football than Tampa Bay right now, and even though the Buccaneers are at home, I don’t think it’ll matter much.
What used to be a vaunted Tampa Bay run defense is now ranked 23rd in the league. Bad news: Kenneth Walker III is coming to town. Walker is a leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, even though he’s only started the last four games. In those four games, the Seahawks are 4-0 and he’s averaged 106.0 yards rushing per game to go along with six rushing touchdowns.
The Bucs are going to be in a tough spot on Sunday.
Vikings (7-1) at Bills (6-2), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 19, Bills 17
ATS
Vikings +4
Total
Under 44.5
Analysis
Two heavyweights face off in an inter-conference showdown worthy of primetime. You could easily make a case for either team to win, but I’m going to go with the Vikings here. The addition of T.J. Hockenson really completed their offense, and safety Harrison Smith showed last week he hasn’t lost a step. Buffalo is a major threat, sure, but the doubt surrounding Josh Allen’s health triggers concern.
Lions (2-6) at Bears (3-6), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Bears 24, Lions 16
ATS
Bears -3
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
Has Justin Fields finally found his rhythm? Last week he set an all-time record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game, and this week he faces the league’s worst defense at home. Even if there’s some regression, you have to think he’s still locked in. This spread could be double what it is now, and I’d still lay the points.
Broncos (3-5) at Titans (5-3), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Titans 19, Broncos 17
ATS
Broncos +3
Total
Under 38.5
Analysis
A battle of two underwhelming teams. Denver’s defense is very good but their offense kind of makes you uncomfortable when watching it. You keep waiting for something to click and Denver’s offense to take off, but it just isn’t. Tennessee quarterback Malik Willis has looked good so far in limited action, but again, you’re waiting for someone else to take charge (besides Derrick Henry).
Losing Bradley Chubb will undoubtedly hurt the Bronco’s chances, but that is somewhat mitigated by the fact the Titans are not a passing team by any stretch (ranked 31st in the league).
In somewhat of an upset, I’m taking the Broncos and the points in this one.
Jaguars (3-6) at Chiefs (6-2), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 35, Jaguars 17
ATS
Chiefs -9.5
Total
Over 50.5
Analysis
Not much needs to be said here. Mahomes and company went off last Sunday night, and the Jaguars rank 25th in sacks per game. If Mahomes is upright, it might be goodnight for Jacksonville.
Browns (3-5) at Dolphins (6-3), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Browns 24, Dolphins 21
ATS
Browns +3.5
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
This should be a very entertaining game. The Browns run despite people knowing they will. The Dolphins pass despite people knowing they will. Both offenses run smoothly despite the opposition being keyed in on their gameplan.
Usually, I can quantify an instinct I have, but not here. For some reason, I think the Browns are due. I guess I am putting stock into the fact that two teams like this that are pretty similar shouldn’t be separated as much as they are in the standings. In other words, the NFL is built for parity, and I think the Dolphins regress to the mean in this game. I’m picking the Browns to win this game outright.
Texans (1-6-1) at Giants (6-2), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Giants 27, Texans 20
ATS
Giants -6.5
Total
Over 40.5
Analysis
Like the Kansas City/Jacksonville game, I don’t see a way the Texans stay competitive throughout this matchup, especially given the status of Houston running back Dameon Pierce. The Giants have played in a lot of close games, but I think they score a touchdown late to hit the over and put the Texans away, courtesy of Saquon Barkley.
Saints (3-6) at Steelers (2-6), Sunday 11/13 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Steelers 23, Saints 14
ATS
Steelers +2.5
Total
Under 40.5
Analysis
The Steelers off a bye, at home, with their season on the line, and potentially getting T.J. Watt back into the mix? And they’re getting points? And the Ravens just showed how to completely take apart the Saints?
I’m almost shocked the Saints are favored. Take the points and run.
Colts (3-5-1) at Raiders (2-6), Sunday 11/13 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Raiders 28, Colts 26
ATS
Colts +6
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
Two bad football teams. Take the points, I guess.
In all honesty, it can’t get much worse for the Colts, so I’m taking a shot in the dark that the new head coach will infuse energy into the team. I don’t think they can outscore the Raiders as they’re currently constructed, but six points is too much not to take.
Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (3-6), Sunday 11/13 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 27, Packers 21
ATS
Cowboys -5
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
How wild is it that you can trust the Cowboys in clutch situations more than you can trust the Packers?
Five points feels about right to me. With Dallas coming off a bye and Green Bay coming off a horrible loss to Detroit, this is setting up for a pretty comprehensive Dallas victory on Sunday afternoon.
Cardinals (3-6) at Rams (3-5), Sunday 11/13 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Rams 25, Cardinals 23
ATS
Cardinals +3
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
This is probably the most confusing game of the entire week to pick. Both teams could score 40 points or more. Both teams could score 17 or less.
I like the Rams to be less mistake-prone and more composed when situations get tight. The fact that Los Angeles is struggling so much to run the ball doesn’t matter so much to me, because it just makes things easier for Sean McVay.
As for Arizona, I just can’t take them seriously.
Chargers (5-3) at 49ers (4-4), Sunday 11/13 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
49ers 28, Chargers 20
ATS
49ers -7
Total
Over 45.5
Analysis
The 49ers will enter this game coming off a bye, and Christian McCaffrey has had a couple more weeks to get integrated into San Francisco’s offensive system.
If Keenan Allen were healthy, I’d consider picking the Chargers, but as good as Austin Ekeler is, the fact he’s likely to be overloaded with touches concerns me—especially given the prowess of San Francisco defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans.
This should be a great game. Either team could win. While seven points is a lot, I think the Niners are the more complete team at this stage of the season.
Commanders (4-5) at Eagles (8-0), Monday 11/14 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Commanders 21, Eagles 17
ATS
Commanders +10.5
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
My upset of the week.
A divisional game is traditionally one where records are less an indicator of an outcome than usual. Therefore, you’re looking for x-factors. Game changers. Look no further than Commanders defensive end Chase Young. He’s been practicing for the last week and there’s been no reports of any hiccups in his recovery.
Similar to the reasoning used in the Browns/Dolphins game, the NFL has a way of pulling teams back to the pack just when they’ve hit their stride.
Add that to the fact that this series has been closely contested in recent years:
In 2019, the Eagles swept the series, winning by a combined 15 points.
In 2020, the Commanders swept the series, winning by a combined 16 points.
In 2021, the Eagles swept the series, winning by a combined 14 points.
This year, the Commanders lost to the Eagles, 24-8, in Washington. That was when Carson Wentz was under center. Now, the team has an entirely different feel to it.
They know that while this is far from their last chance to make a playoff bid, it’s their best chance to put the rest of the conference on notice. I would not be surprised if the Eagles just ran out of gas for one night and dropped one to the Commanders.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.