The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 12 Picks

Last week (yikes): 6-8 ATS, over/under 4-10

Year to date: 85-72-7, OVER/UNDER 78-83-3

Bills (7-3) at Lions (4-6), Thursday 11/24 at 12:30 pm ET

Pick

Bills 31, Lions 20

ATS

Bills -9.5

Total

Under 53.5

Analysis

It took the Bills awhile to get going against the Browns but considering all they went through to just get to Detroit, it’s impressive they were able to come out of that game victorious. Now, with a more normal travel—albeit short—week, I have more confidence in them going against a flawed, yet resurgent Lions team.

Detroit is making good headway with Jamaal Williams and their ground game. Buffalo’s road rush defense is ranked 7th, so you have to think the Lions will need to look elsewhere to put up points. Fortunately for them, rookie wide receiver Jameson Williams was activated Monday, although it’s not certain when he will be game ready.

Giants (7-3) at Cowboys (7-3), Thursday 11/24 at 4:30 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 30, Giants 27

ATS

Giants +8.5

Total

Over 44.5

Analysis

The Cowboys looked amazing against an excellent Vikings team on Sunday. The Giants looked good themselves, although they ultimately fell apart. They don’t strike me as a team that is short on resilience, though, so it’s going to be very interesting to see how this game turns out—especially considering that even at eight wins, the winning team would be only 2nd in the division.

I’ll give the edge to the Cowboys and their running game, as Tony Pollard is on a serious hot streak and Ezekiel Elliott is getting healthier. But for betting purposes, I’m taking the Giants and the points.

Patriots (6-4) at Vikings (8-2), Thursday 11/24 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 27, Patriots 21

ATS

Vikings -3

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

Minnesota was not themselves last week, whatsoever. The Patriots are a solid team, but I don’t see how Minnesota lays an egg at home two weeks in a row. Look for Justin Jefferson to bounce back in a big way, but for the Patriots to try and counter such a rally by deploying their dynamic running back duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Game flow makes this point total very tricky to predict, so unless you really like the over or under, I’d stay away from it altogether.

Buccaneers (5-5) at Browns (3-7), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 20, Browns 16

ATS

Buccaneers -3

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

This is the last game the Browns play before Deshaun Watson returns to action. If they have any hopes of making the playoffs, they need to run the table, starting this week.

Cleveland’s remaining schedule consists of three home games and four away games. If Watson is able to return to top form, the Browns could absolutely win out. However, a lot of the teams they’re going to play are going to be similarly desperate to win.

In other words, this Browns team has been less than consistent when faced with adversity. This should be a decent game in which points come at a premium. In such a situation, I have to give the edge to Tom Brady and the Bucs.

Bengals (6-4) at Titans (7-3), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bengals 24, Titans 23

ATS

Titans +1.5

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

This matchup looks like a potential AFC playoff preview. Both teams are headed in the right direction, having won close games as of late, and play hard-nosed football. Even when Joe Mixon went down with a concussion, Samaje Perine filled in perfectly for the Bengals. Ryan Tannehill threw for 333 yards in Week 11—his most since Week 2 of 2021.

If Ja’Marr Chase is cleared for this game (which I don’t expect will be the case), then give the points without worry. But if Chase is still inactive, I’d choose the home underdog who’s led by an All-Pro running back.

Whichever team you choose, get ready for a tight ball game and tense finish. Though I don’t want to admit it, these teams are two strong playoff contenders.

Texans (1-8-1) at Dolphins (7-3), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 28, Texans 14

ATS

Dolphins -11.5

Total

Under 45.5

Analysis

Normally, I try to look for ways one team can expose the other—for mismatches or trends that lead me to bet one way or the other.

This is one of those games that doesn’t need intense research. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and are hosting the worst team in the league while also making a serious run for the AFC’s top seed. They have no reason to lack focus or intensity on Sunday, and the Texans—who just got rocked at home by the Commanders—have plenty of reasons to doubt.

When a spread is double digits and the total is in the mid-40’s, that’s basically telling you the underdog will need a miracle to not just win but be competitive. Look for the Dolphins to develop their running game a bit more, as the Texans have an excellent young cornerback—3rd overall pick Derek Stingley, Jr.—to help combat the passing attack of Miami. In Week 10—his first game with Miami—Jeff Wilson rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries, adding two receptions for 24 yards. Giving him looks early in the game will only increase the effectiveness of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Bears (3-8) at Jets (6-4), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Jets 23, Bears 20

ATS

Bears +5.5

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

Justin Fields dislocated his non-throwing shoulder last week, and Zach Wilson was horrendous. Translation: both teams have serious doubts at the quarterback position heading into their matchup this week. Cole Kmet is having a very good run as of late. He’s caught five touchdowns in his last four games and has averaged 15.1 yards per reception in his last two games. Assuming he will be the focal point of the Jets defense, I don’t see much else the Bears have on offense to break through.

I’ll take the Bears and the points, but definitely keep an eye on the status of Justin Fields throughout the week.

Falcons (5-6) at Commanders (6-5), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Falcons 28, Commanders 24

ATS

Falcons +3.5

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

This game features two similar teams. They’re both led by veteran quarterbacks who’ve had to wait their turn for consistent playing time, very good running backs, and defenses that do just enough to give their offense and specials teams a chance to win.

Speaking of special teams, you might be surprised to learn that both these teams rank in the Top 10 in special teams DVOA (Commanders 4th, Falcons 8th). That’s all the more reason this game figures to be close from beginning to end. I’m going to give the edge to RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson and the Falcons, as I think he will be the difference maker, just like he was last week when he returned a Bears kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown.

Broncos (3-7) at Panthers (3-8), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Broncos 16, Panthers 14

ATS

Under 35.5

Total

Panthers +2.5

Analysis

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a lower point total ahead of a football game in my life. I’m sorry if you’re a fan of either of these teams. I’ll take the home team and the points.

Ravens (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7), Sunday 11/27 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 30, Jaguars 20

ATS

Ravens -4

Total

Over 45.5

Analysis

If the Ravens can block Josh Allen, I think they will win this game. Last week, against a similar talent in Brian Burns, Baltimore struggled to stuff the pass rush and were beaten often along the offensive line.

The Jaguars rank 14th in points allowed per game. While I think they make a handful of plays, I don’t see the Ravens struggling on offense for the 2nd straight week. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards could be back, but even if they’re not, Kenyan Drake remains in good form.

Defensively, the Ravens are really clicking. Roquan Smith has been a breath of fresh air, Patrick Queen is having the resurgence of his career, and perhaps no cornerback is playing better football than Marlon Humphrey.

Lay the four points with confidence.

Chargers (5-5) at Cardinals (4-7), Sunday 11/27 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 27, Cardinals 24

ATS

Cardinals +3.5

Total

Over 48

Analysis

Colt McCoy started Monday’s game against the 49ers. As of now, there’s no word on who Arizona’s quarterback will be for this game.

Not knowing who your quarterback is going to be for a game is a big deal. Fortunately for the Chargers, they don’t have that problem. Justin Herbert made some great plays last Sunday night, but he also made his share of mistakes. While the Cardinals are a losing football team, their defense has opportunistic, dynamic players like Budda Baker and Isaiah Simmons leading the way.

I see this contest as one the Chargers will control, although the Cardinals should remain competitive throughout. Arizona got blown out last week by the 49ers, so this is last chance saloon for their season.

Raiders (3-7) at Seahawks (6-4), Sunday 11/27 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Seahawks 31, Raiders 30

ATS

Raiders +3.5

Total

Over 47.5

Analysis

Off a bye, the Seahawks look to remain on top in the NFC West with a win as they host a Raiders team that is trending more towards draft prep than the playoffs. At this point, there’s no use in referencing the Raiders’ talent. More times than not, they’re not putting it to effective use.

I’m taking the points, but I’m not as confident in this as I am in other bets this week. I could see the Seahawks pulling away late, but for now I’ll take the Raiders against the spread.

Rams (3-7) at Chiefs (8-2), Sunday 11/27 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 42, Rams 21

ATS

Chiefs -14

Total

Over 44

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes is the best football player in the world. The Rams are the worst team in the NFC.

Need I say more?

Saints (4-7) at 49ers (6-4), Sunday 11/27 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

49ers 23, Saints 17

ATS

Saints +8.5

Total

Over 42

Analysis

Granted, Trey Lance was thought to be “the guy” for the 49ers this year. However, even with losing him, the 49ers have looked solid. San Francisco has won three straight since trading for Christian McCaffrey, and are currently the 5th seed in the NFC playoff picture.

As good as this run has been, the 49ers need to sustain their urgency down the stretch if they want to fulfil their postseason goals they set at the beginning of the season.

As far as the Saints go, there’s not much to say. They’re somewhat competitive and Chris Olave is having a very good rookie year. That’s about it. Their quarterback situation is not only bad, but also unclear. Even in the sub-par NFC South, they’re not a contender (in my opinion). The spread is big but so is the gap in trajectory for where these two teams are headed.

Packers (4-7) at Eagles (9-1), Sunday 11/27 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Eagles 27, Packers 20

ATS

Eagles -6.5

Total

Over 45.5

Analysis

The Eagles got a scare last week and almost lost to the Colts. Don’t expect a similarly lethargic effort this week. Philadelphia should be ready for Green Bay, as the Packers rank 30th in points scored per road game. Even if the spread was 8 or 8 1/2, I’d still lay the points.

Steelers (3-7) at Colts (4-6-1), Monday 11/28 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Steelers 24, Colts 20

ATS

Steelers +3

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

I don’t know what’s come over me, but for some reason I keep betting the Steelers when they’re underdogs. I guess it’s the respect I have for them, never seemingly out of it. As the spread suggests, this should be a fairly low-scoring game, which leads me to ask the question: if you need a score, which team has more dynamic playmakers?

I have to go with the Steelers on this one, as much as I don’t want to. I think they win straight up, so obviously I’ll take the three points, as well.