Week 12: ATS 9-7, over/under 11-5
Year to date: 94-79-7, over/under 89-88-3
Bills (8-3) at Patriots (6-5), Thursday December 1 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Bills 26, Patriots 23
ATS
Patriots +6
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
These two teams always seem to play close games. I even think the Patriots could win. The one concern I have is how they let Justin Jefferson go off on Thanksgiving night. You have to think Stefon Diggs has a similar outing this Sunday. If he does, you have to think it’s enough to give Buffalo the win.
Steelers (4-7) at Falcons (5-7), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Steelers 23, Falcons 17
ATS
Steelers +1.5
Total
Under 42
Analysis
Another week, another Steelers pick taking the points. In Week 12, Atlanta showed they’re competitive but do not consistently have what it takes to close out close games. Conversely for Pittsburgh, as long as Mike Tomlin is in charge, they will always have a chance. Expect a big game from Steelers wideout George Pickens.
Packers (4-8) at Bears (3-9), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Bears 24, Packers 20
ATS
Bears +2.5
Total
Over 41.5
Analysis
This season can’t end soon enough for both of these teams. Injured starting quarterbacks, lacking wide receiver production, and an overall sense of underperforming has plagued both the Bears and the Packers.
I’m going to taking Chicago outright. They were beaten soundly by the Jets last week, but the Packers defense doesn’t pose the threat New York does. I would stay away from this game as far as fantasy football goes, but overall, I think it’ll be a decent matchup.
Special teams will be particularly impactful this week, as December in Chicago is never an ideal setting. That said, Chicago’s special teams rank 19th, while Green Bay’s special teams rank 29th.
Jaguars (4-7) at Lions (4-7), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Lions 38, Jaguars 33
ATS
Lions -1.5
Total
Over 51.5
Analysis
The final score of this game may not be quite as high as I’ve predicted, but I do expect a lot of offense in this one. Jameson Williams could see his first ever NFL action against the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense, which would only help matters in that regard. Even if he remains inactive, the Lions have matured a lot this year, which leads me to believe they’ll be in position to win late in the game.
Jets (7-4) at Vikings (9-2), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 29, Jets 22
ATS
Vikings -3
Total
Over 45.5
Analysis
Sauce Gardner versus Justin Jefferson. I’m putting all my money (figuratively speaking, of course) on JJ. The Vikings rank worst in football in pass defense, so Garrett Wilson could have a big day. However, when comparing the totality of New York’s and Minnesota’s offenses, it’s clear the Vikings have the advantage.
Commanders (7-5) at Giants (7-4), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Commanders 23, Giants 21
ATS
Commanders -1.5
Total
Over 40.5
Analysis
Could it be that the Commanders are a playoff team? Their resilient win against the Falcons in the rain last Sunday was quite impressive. It looked for sure like Atlanta was about to punch the ball in and take the lead in the final moments. However, Washington stood tall on defense. The Giants lost their last game, a divisional game at that, so I foresee them being on the verge of motivated and anxious. The Commanders, conversely, are past the stage of over-achieving. They truly believe and have done so well without the services of defensive end Chase Young—who could be active on Sunday. My main concern for the Giants is that if Saquon Barkley gets stuffed by Washington’s front, I’m not sure where else they will go for offense.
Titans (7-4) at Eagles (10-1), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Titans 23, Eagles 20
ATS
Titans +6
Total
Under 44.5
Analysis
As great as the Eagles’ ground game was last Sunday night, their defense let up way too many points too quickly to an under-manned Packers offense. Tennessee is a much more solid team, so it’s quite conceivable they not only keep it close but take advantage of Philadelphia’s mistakes where Green Bay couldn’t.
Over his last three games, Ryan Tannehill has averaged passing for 293 yards and has thrown four touchdowns against just one interception. Those might not be Patrick Mahomes numbers, but they are very good marks for a player who has previously struggled to remain consistent.
The Eagles are very good, but they’re beatable. Half their wins have come against sub-par clubs such as the Colts, Texans, Steelers, Cardinals, and Lions. As much as I dislike the Titans, they are about as hard of a team to beat as there is in this league.
Broncos (3-8) at Ravens (7-4), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 19, Broncos 13
ATS
Broncos +8.5
Total
Under 38.5
Analysis
There’s really no need to say much here. The Broncos have a good defense but a woeful offense. The Ravens need to win to remain in control of their postseason hopes. Losing at home was seemingly inconceivable. Now, unfortunately, somehow, it’s a real concern.
Take the points and take the under.
Browns (4-7) at Texans (1-9-1), Sunday December 4 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Browns 26, Texans 20
ATS
Texans +7
Total
Under 46.5
Analysis
Deshaun Watson returns, at Houston. Of course.
As much as it seems like the Texans are destined for a win, I have to think Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Myles Garrett, and the rest of Browns are too much for the Texans to handle. The crowd will be fired up, but the crowd doesn’t play the game.
Seahawks (6-5) at Rams (3-8), Sunday December 4 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Seahawks 35, Rams 23
ATS
Seahawks -4.5
Total
Over 42
Analysis
There’s an interesting contrast in this matchup. The Seahawks average scoring 5.8 points more than their over/under totals this season, while the Rams are scoring 4.1 points less than their over/under totals. If you have the Seahawks defense on your fantasy team, you’re in luck because the Rams—now without Allen Robinson for the rest of the year—give up the most points to opposing defense/special teams units.
It’s not a stretch to say the Seahawks will win Sunday. Anything north of four points implies a touchdown difference, but with the Rams playing at home and the Seahawk’s defense still reeling from Josh Jacob’s monster performance, the point differential is very much in question. I’m going to give the points, though, because of Los Angeles having too many new parts, whereas the Seahawks have been clicking for a while now.
Dolphins (8-3) at 49ers (7-4), Sunday December 4 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
49ers 27, Dolphins 20
ATS
49ers -3.5
Total
Over 46.5
Analysis
Mike McDaniel returns to the team with which he “made his name.” The chess match between he and 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans is going to be fun to watch.
If you like creative schemes, this is the game of the year.
Chiefs (9-2) at Bengals (7-4), Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 38, Bengals 30
ATS
Chiefs -2.5
Total
Over 51.5
Analysis
Ten months ago, these two teams met in the AFC Championship game. The Bengals won in overtime, 27-24, after outscoring the Chiefs 17-3 in the second half and overtime.
The only major change to these rosters is that Tyreek Hill is now on the Dolphins. Ja’Marr Chase’s status is in doubt, but even if he doesn’t play, the Bengals will have plenty of offensive firepower.
While the personnel suggests a shootout, these defenses will present a fair challenge—particularly along the defensive line. The Bengals allow 21.0 points per game and the Chiefs are close behind, as they’re giving up an average of 22.1 points per game. Though each defense will have their moments, I expect these star quarterbacks to take over the show late and help hit that over.
Chargers (6-5) at Raiders (4-7), Sunday December 4 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Raiders 28, Chargers 27
ATS
Raiders +2.5
Total
Over 50.5
Analysis
If the Chargers can stop the NFL’s leading rusher Josh Jacobs, they should win. By stop, I mean hold him under 80 rushing yards, under 100 total yards, and keep him out of the end zone. If not, it’ll only make Davante Adams all the more dangerous.
The Raiders have a losing record, yes, but they are as battle-tested as anyone, and in late-season games, that intangible pays big dividends.
Colts (4-7-1) at Cowboys (8-3), Sunday December 4 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 30, Colts 10
ATS
Cowboys -9.5
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
Unless the Cowboys completely collapse or suffer multiple injuries between now and Sunday night, they should roll. Give the points, but I’d hesitate to bet the total unless you have a good feeling. I feel like the Colts have enough pride and the Cowboys will want to rest their starters to where the end of the game could see a backdoor over.
Saints (4-8) at Buccaneers (5-7), Monday December 5 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Buccaneers 24, Saints 21
ATS
Saints +4
Total
Over 40
Analysis
The Saints flew cross-country in Week 12, only to be shut out by the 49ers. The Buccaneers just won a road game in overtime. Strangely enough, these two teams still have a real path to a division title. Injuries have taken a toll on both teams, but I feel like the pass rush of the Buccaneers will be the difference—especially going against an Andy Dalton-led offense. In his career, Dalton has thrown 240 touchdowns to 142 interceptions, for a TD/INT ratio of 1.69:1. Not to mention, Dalton being sacked 10 times in the last four games doesn’t help matters, either.
New Orleans could certainly get a win here—a big one, at that—but the way things are going, I just don’t see it happening. Bet the Bucs with confidence.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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