Last week: ATS 8-7-1, over/under 5-11
Year to date: ATS 116-100-8, over/under 110-111-3
Jaguars (6-8) at Jets (7-7), Thursday 12/22 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Jets 23, Jaguars 17
ATS
Jets -1
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
The Jaguars are a very competitive, dynamic team, but they’re not as good on the road as they are at home (2-5 away record). The Jets aren’t a juggernaut, either, but they’re solid and should be able to defend Jacksonville’s pass better than Dallas did a week ago.
Garrett Wilson could go for 150 yards receiving and a touchdown in this one.
Bills (11-3) at Bears (3-11), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Bills 28, Bears 16
ATS
Bills -9
Total
Over 41.5
Analysis
The Bills are coming off their second close call against the Dolphins of the season. This time, though, they came away with the victory. While nine points is a lot to give, especially on the road, they’re on the short list for the AFC’s top seed. Expect nothing but the Bills’ best on Sunday.
The Bears will put up a fight, but this is a bad matchup for them. Jalen Hurts destroyed Chicago on the ground last week, and Josh Allen is every bit the runner as Hurts is. Plus, if the Bears go behind in this game, that’s all the more reason for them to throw and diverge from Justin Fields’ exceptional running production.
Saints (5-9) at Browns (6-8), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Browns 20, Saints 13
ATS
Browns -3
Total
Over 32
Analysis
Temperatures in the mid-20’s cause you to believe this will be a run-heavy gameplan from both teams. Deshaun Watson is the obvious x-factor, as he’s still working his way back into top form. The total is incredibly low, so I’m leaning toward taking the over. As for the point spread, I like the Saints to keep it close. They have enough receiving weapons to keep Cleveland’s secondary honest.
Texans (1-12-1) at Titans (7-7), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Titans 28, Texans 13
ATS
Titans -7
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
Derrick Henry at home versus the team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
I’ll take the Titans and give the points.
Seahawks (7-7) at Chiefs (11-3), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 35, Seahawks 28
ATS
Seahawks +10
Total
Over 49.5
Analysis
Patrick Mahomes at home is about as much of a lock as you can get in this league. When thinking about a 10-point spread, though, I advise taking the Seahawks. Seattle may be a .500 football team, but they rank 7th in the league in scoring (25.4 ppg), so they can certainly put up points.
At this stage in the season, one of the biggest factors in bets is a team’s motivation. Both teams have significant motivating factors driving them, so I fully believe they will put their best foot forward.
Giants (8-5-1) at Vikings (11-3), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 38, Giants 35 (OT)
ATS
Giants +3.5
Total
Over 47.5
Analysis
I’ve said it before: Justin Jefferson is a legitimate MVP candidate. No one on the Giants inspires enough confidence to make me think Jefferson can be slowed down this week. The better question is: who on Minnesota besides Jefferson will be able to score points?
Dalvin Cook and T.J. Hockenson are the obvious answers, but given the strength of New York’s defensive front, that advantage for Minnesota will certainly be challenged.
I’m taking the points. I think Minnesota wins, but as great as their record is, they make it much harder on themselves than they need to. I think the Giants are good enough to capitalize on some of those opportunities and keep this game close.
Bengals (10-4) at Patriots (7-7), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 24, Patriots 23
ATS
Patriots +3.5
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
The Bengals seem to be the better team, and I’m predicting them to win. However, something about this game seems off. For as inconsistent as New England has been, they can really run the ball. You know the old saying: run the ball to keep their best players off the field.
It’s obviously not as simple as saying the Patriots are usually well coached, so they’ll have answers for the Bengals offense and pass rush. That said, New England has a stiff pass rush of their own, and if not for a pathetic Tampa Bay offense last week, the vibe around the Bengals would be much different.
An injured Bengals receiving core may be enough of a burden on the Bengals to prevent them from covering the spread, but I still think they win the game.
Lions (7-7) at Panthers (5-9), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Lions 26, Panthers 17
ATS
Lions -2.5
Total
Under 44.5
Analysis
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Lions are turning into a good football team. I certainly like them to win and cover this week. The point total is in question, as Carolina could muddy things up just enough to hit the under.
Jared Goff is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season. Dan Campbell will be discussed as Coach of the Year. Detroit really believes. That’s a dangerous combination for the Panthers to deal with.
Falcons (5-9) at Ravens (9-5), Saturday 12/24 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 27, Falcons 21
ATS
Falcons +7.5
Total
Over 37.5
Analysis
Just win, Ravens. Just win.
Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4), Saturday 12/24 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
49ers 28, Commanders 19
ATS
49ers -7
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
The Commanders lost a tough one last week at home against a division rival, a game that was not devoid of controversy. That’s never easy to come back from, especially when having to travel cross country the next week to face an NFC powerhouse. Not to mention, Brock Purdy has officially gone from serviceable to effective.
Take the Niners, give the points. It won’t be smooth, but I fully expect San Francisco to be in control for most of this matchup.
Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4), Saturday 12/24 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 24, Eagles 21
ATS
Eagles +6
Total
Under 46.5
Analysis
Jalen Hurts sprained his throwing shoulder in the Eagles’ win at Chicago last week. His status for this week is in doubt. Even if he plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys get the win. If he doesn’t play, which is what’s suggested by the current spread, Dallas would really have to screw up to lose.
Raiders (6-8) at Steelers (6-8), Saturday 12/24 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Steelers 19, Raiders 17
ATS
Raiders +2.5
Total
Under 39.5
Analysis
Darren Waller is back for the Raiders, who are desperately clinging to their playoff chances. If he’s fully healthy, he’s a real difference-maker for Las Vegas. Pair him with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, and you have the best combination of talent at three different offensive positions in the league.
The catch: Can Las Vegas protect Derek Carr? The Raiders offensive line ranks 1st in run blocking and 6th in pass blocking, so the numbers say yes, but blocking a Steelers pass rush in Pittsburgh in December is never an easy task.
On the other hand, if the Steelers lose, they’re guaranteed to have their first ever losing season under Mike Tomlin. For a game between two 6-8 teams, there’s so much to play for.
As talented as the Raiders are, the way last week’s game ended was a fluke. Las Vegas still has yet to convince me they’ve rid themselves of their late-game flaws.
This game features one of the better kicker matchups of any game this week, so expect a field goal game, either way.
Packers (6-8) at Dolphins (8-6), Sunday 12/25 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 30, Packers 21
ATS
Dolphins -5.5
Total
Over 46.5
Analysis
Don’t think too hard about this one. Last week, Miami lost a close road game, one they feel they should’ve won, and Green Bay won a home game in which they didn’t play their best football. When there’s imbalance between a team’s result and performance, there’s usually a regression back to the mean the following week.
Tua Tagovailoa has the potential to throw for 350-plus yards this week.
Broncos (4-10) at Rams (4-10), Sunday 12/25 at 4:30 pm ET
Pick
Broncos 14, Rams 12
ATS
Broncos -1
Total
Under 35.5
Analysis
Woof.
Buccaneers (6-8) at Cardinals (4-10), Sunday 12/25 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 19
ATS
Cardinals +5.5
Total
Over 41
Analysis
Woof, part II. In all seriousness, which team looks worse right now? Hard to tell. I’m going to pick Tampa to win, as they have a direct path to a division title (somehow). Moreover, the Buccaneers defense was hung out to dry but their offense last week and takes the field against a significantly less talented offense in the Cardinals.
Chargers (8-6) at Colts (4-9-1), Monday 12/26 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 26, Colts 20
ATS
Chargers -4
Total
Under 47
Analysis
How can anyone believe in the Colts? Last week was beyond embarrassing. It was a reprehensible abdication of duty responsibility to team and self.
The Chargers won’t feel sorry for them, either. Take LA and give the points.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.