Last week: ATS 6-10, over/under 6-10
Year to date: ATS 122-110-8, over/under 116-121-3
Cowboys (11-4) at Titans (7-8), Thursday 12/29 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 24, Titans 13
ATS
Cowboys -10
Total
Under 40.5
Analysis
The Titans can run the ball, but so can the Cowboys. Dallas is hitting their stride in the passing game, too, and their defense was extremely opportunistic last week against the best team in the NFC.
It’s not often I like giving double digit points, especially on behalf of a road team, but in this case, it simply makes sense.
Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Falcons 23, Cardinals 21
ATS
Cardinals +4
Total
Over 41
Analysis
Atlanta and Arizona are two bad football teams with good pieces scattered throughout. The Falcons being at home is a help, as is the emergence of running back Tyler Allgeier. If Atlanta’s defense can contain Deandre Hopkins, I think the Falcons win this fairly easily. That said, I think the Cardinals make enough plays in the passing game to keep the final score within a field goal.
Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Lions 28, Bears 22
ATS
Push 6
Total
Under 52
Analysis
The Lions are at home with a chance to make the playoffs, so rest assured they will come out firing on Sunday. On the flip side, I want to believe in the Bears and Justin Field, but they’ve only won 25 percent of their games thru Week 16, so there isn’t much else to say.
Chicago may cover, but I don’t see this Lions team losing at home with so much at stake.
Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 27, Broncos 12
ATS
Chiefs -13
Total
Under 45
Analysis
Denver just fired their head coach. Usually, when a new head coach comes in, that team is unpredictable in their next game. Will they come out flat? Will they come out on fire?
However, as much as Nathaniel Hackett struggled, the problems with the Broncos didn’t just reside with the head coach. You just cannot depend on this offense to make plays. Conversely, the Chiefs offense is the most dependable offense in football, and their head coach isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
This is a sizeable mismatch. The only way I think it’s close is if the weather becomes adverse, but the outcome shouldn’t be in doubt. Lay the points.
Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8) , Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Patriots 23, Dolphins 21
ATS
Dolphins +2.5
Total
Over 42
Analysis
This is perhaps the most even game of the weekend. Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to play, setting up Teddy Bridgewater for a great opportunity. Get Miami into the playoffs and kicking New England out of the playoffs in Foxboro? Wow. That would be something.
The Dolphins can do this, but while New England didn’t look great last week, neither did Miami. These kinds of games at this time of year come down to who’s clutch and who makes the least mistakes.
Honestly, it’s a coin flip for me. I’ll take the points but pick the Patriots to win.
Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Giants 24, Colts 16
ATS
Giants -5
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
There might not be a worse team in football than the Colts. I’m so serious. The Texans are at least competitive, and the Broncos have a really good defense. Indianapolis is just clueless right now. They have a revolving door at quarterback, and while their defense has good players, they’re allowing too much to the opposition.
The one thing I will say in Indy’s defense is that last Monday night, their defensive front collapsed the pocket around Justin Herbert almost immediately on the majority of LA’s passing plays. If they can bring that heat against a lesser quarterback in Daniel Jones, the Colts will have a chance.
I think it’ll be a one possession game, and a game in which the Colts will truly fight to win. In the end, though, I can’t trust them over the Giants. I just can’t do it. They haven’t played well enough at all over the last month to inspire any kind of substantial confidence.
Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 30, Saints 14
ATS
Eagles -7
Total
Push 44
Analysis
If the Eagles win this week, they lock up the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Saints are virtually eliminated from playoff contention.
Especially given how they fell apart last week against the Cowboys, I fully expect the Eagles to play near-perfect football on Sunday afternoon at home. No turnovers, four penalties or less, touchdowns on red zone possessions, etc. New Orleans is a formidable opponent, but this seems like Philadelphia’s game to lose.
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14
ATS
Panthers +3
Total
Under 39.5
Analysis
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers won this game by a touchdown. The way these two teams have been playing recently, you could certainly make that argument. In their previous meeting, at Carolina, Tampa Bay lost handily, 21-3. In that game, the Buccaneers only converted 17 percent of their 3rd down attempts (currently converting at a rate of 38 percent) and didn’t score until the 4th quarter.
While I think Carolina has steadily improved since then, I don’t think the Buccaneers will be as bad as they were two months ago.
Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Commanders 20, Browns 17
ATS
Commanders -2
Total
Under 40.5
Analysis
When Washington is on the road, they’re hit or miss. When they’re playing at home, they are awfully hard to beat. Furthermore, the Commanders have playoff hopes still lingering, while the Browns are aimless at the moment, scoring a total of 33 points in their last three games.
It won’t likely be pretty, but I think the Commanders will stifle the Browns offense and make just enough plays against Cleveland’s defense to give Ron Rivera his 98th career win, which would break a tie with Hall of Famer Tom Flores for 44th all-time.
Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1), Sunday 1/1 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Jaguars 28, Texans 13
ATS
Jaguars -4.5
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
Though the Texans have been admirably competitive this season, the Jaguars seem to have found their groove and are closing in on—wait for it—a division championship. Jacksonville has won three in a row and four of their last five games. They’re starting to figure things out and know the opportunity that’s before them.
A win at Houston coupled with a Titans loss versus Dallas and the AFC South is Jacksonville’s to lose.
49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9), Sunday 1/1 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
49ers 24, Raiders 23
ATS
Raiders +6
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
How can you trust the Raiders in critical moments?
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Seahawks 21, Jets 20
ATS
Seahawks +2
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
This matchup features a pair of outstanding rookie cornerbacks: Sauce Gardner (Jets) and Tariq Woolen (Seahawks). Both pass defenses are allowing less than 220 yards per game, which makes me think this game will be won or lost by who can run the ball more effectively.
Seattle ranks 21st in rushing yards per game, while New York ranks 24th in the same category. Okay, another relative stalemate.
How about the quarterbacks? The Jets have been an absolute mess at that position all year. On the other hand, Geno Smith has been playing really good football for the Seahawks, even after such uncertainty following the Russell Wilson trade.
Expect a close contest, but one in which the Seahawks make less mistakes than the Jets.
Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8), Sunday 1/1 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 26, Packers 19
ATS
Vikings +3.5
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
Apparently, Vegas thinks the Vikings will rest starters this week, otherwise there’s no reason the Packers would be favored. I’m not buying it. Minnesota has clearly been the better team to this point, and I think that will continue on Sunday in Green Bay.
Rams (5-10) “at” Chargers (9-6), Sunday 1/1 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 24, Rams 20
ATS
Rams +6.5
Total
Over 41
Analysis
Bottom line: the Rams over-achieved last week and the Chargers slightly under-achieved in their last game. I see a regression toward the mean with the Chargers coming out on top, but only after thwarting a last-drive comeback bid from Baker and company.
Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5), Sunday 1/1 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 19, Steelers 17
ATS
Steelers +3
Total
Push 36
Analysis
With a win, the Ravens bury the Steelers’ playoff hopes and hand Mike Tomlin his first-ever losing season.
This game was flexed to primetime for a reason. Get ready.
Happy New Year.
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (12-4), Monday 1/2 at 8:30 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 27, Bills 23
ATS
Bengals +1
Total
Over 49.5
Analysis
The Bengals are really tough. They’re beatable, of course, but something tells me they will get the best of the Bills here (as they did the Chiefs a few weeks ago). If the Bengals can start hot—which they’ve been great at doing this year—I think it’ll be especially challenging for the Bills to keep up.
Can the Bills beat the Bengals? Absolutely. Can they do so by double-digits? Yes. Do I think Buffalo is better than Cincinnati? Yes, I do. All that said, I just have a feeling the Bengals will have more tenacity than the Bills this week.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.