The Lineup: 2022 NFL Week 18 Picks

First and foremost, we lift up our most heartfelt and fervent prayer to Damar Hamlin, his family, and all those who are currently battling through life-threatening illnesses. What happened on Monday night left me speechless and scared. Of course, football is the last thing that matters at a time like this, but in time, it helps to be distracted with something.

Last week: ATS 8-7, over/under 8-7

Year to date: ATS 130-117-8, over/under 124-128-3* not counting MNF, Bills at Bengals

Chiefs (13-3) at Raiders (6-10), Saturday 1/7 at 4:30 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 34, Raiders 23

ATS

Chiefs -9.5

Total

Over 53

Analysis

While the Raiders are out of the playoffs and the Chiefs are fighting for the AFC’s top seed, Las Vegas is still going to be competitive. The Raiders are one of those teams that doesn’t always win but can always score and keep you honest. That will be especially important this week, as the Chiefs barely escaped an upset bid by the double-digit underdog Broncos in Kansas City last Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t breaking down by any means, but they are showing enough signs to make you think the Raiders could cover.

That said, when push comes to shove, the playoffs is a stronger motivator than pride. It may take a backdoor cover, but I’m confident laying the points in this game.

Titans (7-9) at Jaguars (8-8), Saturday 1/7 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Jaguars 24, Titans 17

ATS

Jaguars -6.5

Total

Over 39

Analysis

This game will decide the AFC South championship. While recent weeks would lead you to believe the Jaguars are the clear favorites and the Titans are all but finished, that’s not exactly the case.

Even though 6 1/2 points is a big number, the Titans have won 5 of the last 6 and 9 of the last 11 times they’ve played the Jaguars. The last two times Tennessee went on the road for this game, the Titans have scored over 30 points.

The only reason I’m hesitant to take the points is because of Tennessee’s lack of stability at quarterback. Josh Dobbs is a playmaker, but he has nowhere near the cohesiveness with his teammates and coaches that Trevor Lawrence has with his teammates and coaches. I have to think that comes to fruition by way of a big 3rd down conversion or red zone score.

It should be one of the closer games we see this weekend, but I’m taking the Jaguars to win the AFC South and finish with their first winning season since 2017.

Buccaneers (8-8) at Falcons (6-10), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 23, Falcons 14

ATS

Buccaneers +3

Total

Under 41

Analysis

Atlanta is made up of a bunch of fighters. They’re even favored this week. That said, Tampa Bay is just better. It remains to be seen if the Bucs will rest certain players, but we won’t know that for sure until later in the week. Take Tampa and the points.

Patriots (8-8) at Bills (12-3*), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bills 27, Patriots 14

ATS

Bills -7.5

Total

Under 42.5

Analysis

How can anyone think of football at a time like this? Of course, nothing matters besides Damar Hamlin being healed and his family gaining peace. There’s really nothing I can say. I’m at a loss for words. I can only offer prayer at this time.

As for the game, though we’re not sure if it’ll even be played as scheduled, it’s a distraction. So here we go…

New England is currently in control of the final playoff spot in the AFC. If they win in Buffalo this week, they’re in the playoffs (and would potentially play the Bills in Buffalo for the second week in a row).

Five weeks ago, the Bills took care of business in New England, 24-10. That kind of gap is going to be hard to overlook when forecasting the outcome of this contest. New England’s defense should have some success against Buffalo’s offense, but New England’s offense is too limited for me to think they will outscore Buffalo on the road in a game both teams desperately want to win.

Vikings (12-4) at Bears (3-13), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Bears 19, Vikings 16

ATS

Bears +1.5

Total

Under 46.5

Analysis

What I saw from Minnesota at Green Bay last week was, in a word, bizarre. Green Bay has been in must-win mode for a while, but Minnesota wanted that game just as much (or so we thought). I have a feeling this game will be a big letdown for the Vikings and the Bears will have a chance to win outright.

Look at the spread. Chicago is only a 1 1/2-point underdog. The sharps think this will be a close game, and I agree. I just think Chicago finds a way to win, because I don’t think Minnesota can completely erase the malaise they played with in Green Bay in just seven days’ time.

Ravens (10-6) at Bengals (11-4*)

Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET (Bengals win MNF) OR 4:25 pm ET (Bills win MNF)

Pick

Bengals 24, Ravens 20

ATS

Ravens +7

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

By the time this game kicks off, there will have been almost exactly three months since the last meeting between these two teams. In that last meeting, these teams played pretty even football. Joe Burrow put the Bengals ahead with a touchdown rush with 1:58 remaining, but the Ravens responded with a 43-yard Justin Tucker field goal as time expired to win the game, 19-17.

The one stat the kind of popped out at me was the number of sacks each team allowed. The Bengals gave up three sacks for 27 yards while the Ravens only allowed one sack for four yards. If Baltimore can bring Burrow down and keep their QB upright, that’ll go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Quite frankly, I haven’t seen enough from Baltimore to make me think they’re where they need to be, so I’m going to predict a Bengals win but a Ravens cover.

I don’t think it’ll be a blowout either way. If Marcus Peters and Calais Campbell play, that may convince me Baltimore gets the win, but until I know those guys (and Lamar Jackson) are definitely playing, I’m going to predict the Bengals edge this one out.

Texans (2-13-1) at Colts (4-11-1), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Texans 21, Colts 18

ATS

Texans +2.5

Total

Over 38

Analysis

This is one of the rare season finales where neither team has anything of substance to play for. Going by the eye test, I have to pick Houston to win outright, so I’m definitely taking the points.

Jets (7-9) at Dolphins (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 24, Jets 14

ATS

Miami -2.5

Total

Under 39.5

Analysis

New York is officially out of the playoffs, but Miami still has a chance. To make the postseason for the first time since 2016, the Dolphins will need to beat the Jets at home and have the Patriots lose to the Bills on the road. Miami is the better team now, but back on October 9th when these two teams first played, the Jets handed the Dolphins their most lopsided loss of the season (40-17).

Both teams enter Week 18 on a 5-game losing streak, and they’re both likely to start different quarterbacks than they started in Week 5. Therefore, I think this will be somewhat sloppy game. I also think the Dolphins take hold off in the 4th quarter, due to their talent at the skill positions at their collective motivation to claim a postseason berth.

Panthers (6-10) at Saints (7-9), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Panthers 23, Saints 21

ATS

Panthers +3.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

In Week 17, the Saints went to Philadelphia and doubled up the Eagles, 20-10. The Panthers, meanwhile, went to Tampa Bay and nearly upset the Buccaneers, but were no match for the Tom Brady-to-Mike Evans connection.

This is one of the tougher games to predict this week, as both teams don’t have much to play for, but both teams have also shown signs this season of playing dominant football against very good teams. It’s in situations like this where I prefer to avoid betting altogether. But, if I had to make a pick, I’d take the points.

Browns (7-9) at Steelers (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Browns 21, Steelers 20

ATS

Browns +3

Total

Over 39

Analysis

Pittsburgh has an outside chance at playing in the postseason, while Cleveland’s reward for a win would be handing Mike Tomlin his first-ever losing season.

While the Ravens were inept a week ago, they did show some flashes of success in their offensive run game. I know Cleveland’s coaches watched that tape and got excited about how to put together a gameplan for Nick Chubb and company. When these teams faced off in Week 3, Cleveland ran 38 times for 171 yards (4.5 yard average). They also refrained from turning the ball over, on their way to a 29-17 win.

It’s going to be very, very close. Deshaun Watson isn’t back to being a playmaker yet, though he is making enough plays to keep the Browns on schedule. I have to think Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will sack Kenny Pickett more than one time (the number of sacks the Browns had against Mitchell Trubisky when these teams last played).

With cautious optimism, I’ll take the Browns this week (straight up and against the spread).

Cardinals (4-12) at 49ers (12-4), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

49ers 28, Cardinals 3

ATS

49ers -14.5

Total

Under 40

Analysis

All of a sudden, the 49ers have a chance to lock up the NFC’s top seed. If they win and the Eagles lose, the 49ers will have a 1st round bye. The Cardinals, conversely, seemingly, just want the season to be over.

Double-digit spreads aren’t often spreads I like to entertain, but in this case, I don’t see a downside to giving the points. Christian McCaffrey’s health will be something to monitor as the week progresses, but as influential a player as he is, I don’t see the injury as something that’ll alter the outcome of this game.

Rams (5-11) at Seahawks (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Seahawks 26, Rams 20

ATS

Rams +6.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

Simply put, the Seahawks are a better football team. If they win, they’re in. Unfortunately, Jordyn Brooks, one of their key defensive players, sustained an ACL injury Sunday that’ll keep him out for the rest of the season. With Rams running back Cam Akers playing great football as of late (241 yards and three touchdowns rushing in the last two games), that’ll be a void to monitor. Still, the Seahawks have a beast of a running back of their own (Kenneth Walker III) as well as the superior quarterback.

In their eight homes games this season, the Seahawks are 4-4 with a point differential only +18. On the whole, they play close games. That’s enough for me to take the points but pick the Seahawks to win the game outright.

Chargers (10-6) at Broncos (4-12), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 24, Broncos 20

ATS

Chargers -3

Total

Over 40.5

Analysis

Don’t overthink this one. Denver will play tough defense and maybe even turn the Chargers over a couple of times. However, I think Justin Herbert throws two touchdowns and rushes for a third, helping the Chargers win the 20th game of the Brandon Staley era.

Giants (9-6-1) at Eagles (13-3), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Eagles 30, Giants 10

ATS

Eagles -14

Total

Under 43

Analysis

Just a few weeks ago, the Eagles were a Super Bowl favorite and Jalen Hurts was on the short list for league MVP candidates. Now, the Giants may have a shot to win this game. In the end, I don’t think they will, but that door is open.

Logic and recent form suggests you take the points, but something in my gut tells me Philadelphia will show up big on Sunday. I can’t put my finger on it, but I feel like they’re hardened enough to stop the bleeding and put in a strong performance as they prepare for what they hope is a deep playoff run.

Cowboys (12-4) at Commanders (7-8-1), Sunday 1/8 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Cowboys 27, Commanders 20

ATS

Cowboys -3.5

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

If last week was any indication, this is going to get ugly. Carson Wentz has a lot of work to do if he is to remain the starting quarterback of the Commanders. Even if Taylor Heinicke is back under center for Washington, I just think the Cowboys are too good.

Lions (8-8) at Packers (8-8), Sunday 1/8 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Packers 28, Lions 27

ATS

Lions +4.5

Total

Over 48.5

Analysis

If the Seahawks lose, the winner of this game gets the NFC’s last playoff berth. Expect a high-scoring, tense football game—something the Lions specialize in.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if Detroit got the job done. I’m definitely going to take the points (as one of my stronger plays of the week), but I think the Packers do just enough to hang on and win the last regular season game of the 2022 season.