Week 1: ATS 9-7, over/under 8-8
Year to date: ATS 9-7, over/under 8-8
Chargers (1-0) at Chiefs (1-0)
Thursday 9/15 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 31, Chargers 28
ATS
Chargers +3.5
Total
Over 54.5
Analysis
This could be a preview of the AFC Championship. Both teams are led by a legitimate MVP candidate at quarterback. Easily the game of the week for me. In these situations, I’ll take the team who’s getting points.
Dolphins (1-0) at Ravens (1-0)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 26, Dolphins 20
ATS
Ravens -3.5
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
Baltimore is the better team, but just barely. Dolphins right tackle Austin Jackson’s health is in doubt, while the Ravens’ defensive line feasted against the Jets. For that reason, I give the edge to Baltimore, though I see Tua Tagovailoa and Miami vying for the go-ahead touchdown on the last drive of the game.
Jets (0-1) at Browns (1-0)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Browns 19, Jets 16
ATS
Jets +6
Total
Under 40.5
Analysis
I think the Browns lean heavily on Nick Chubb and their offensive line in this game. I don’t see the Jets offering quite enough resistance to overtake Cleveland. Besides, Myles Garrett rushing Joe Flacco and that offensive line? Good luck, New York.
Commanders (1-0) at Lions (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Lions 27, Commanders 21
ATS
Lions -2.5
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
I like the Lions to win this week as they went toe-to-toe with a very good Eagles team last week. Detroit believes they can win, as does Washington. However, I like Aidan Hutchinson rushing off the edge against Carson Wentz, who was hurried eight times and hit five times in Week 1.
Colts (0-0-1) at Jaguars (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Colts 23, Jaguars 14
ATS
Colts -4
Total
Under 46.5
Analysis
If you like rushing offense, this is the game for you. Jonathan Taylor against James Robinson. Both teams would be well-served to rely on their stud running back and control the clock. I think Indianapolis pulls away in the 3rd quarter and wins comfortably, but I think the total will go under.
Buccaneers (1-0) at Saints (1-0)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Buccaneers 26, Saints 20
ATS
Buccaneers -3
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
Tampa’s defense is for real. New Orleans had to stage a big 2nd-half comeback to beat an inferior Falcons team last week. New Orleans has a few good players, but Tampa is the better team.
Panthers (0-1) at Giants (1-0)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Giants 20, Panthers 9
ATS
Giants -2.5
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
Barkley is back. The Panthers seem broken. It sounds strange, but I’ll take Daniel Jones over Baker Mayfield right now. The total could be really low or really high, but I can’t see the Panthers winning this one. The x-factor here is Wink Martindale, New York’s Defensive Coordinator. He saw and schemed against Baker Mayfield twice a year while working in the same role for the Ravens.
Patriots (0-1) at Steelers (1-0)
Sunday 9/18 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Steelers 27, Patriots 18
ATS
Steelers +2
Total
Over 40.5
Analysis
Somehow the Patriots are favored. The Steelers recorded seven sacks and forced six turnovers last week against a far better offense (Bengals). The Patriots looked flat against the Dolphins, and now go on the road for a second straight week. The Steelers take this one outright.
Falcons (0-1) at Rams (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Rams 40, Falcons 14
ATS
Rams -10.5
Total
Over 47.5
Analysis
The Falcons blew a big lead, late, at home, against their main rival. The Rams got embarrassed in their home opener. This spread is huge, but I would be willing to give 16-17 points in this situation. It could get ugly for the Falcons.
Seahawks (1-0) at 49ers (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
49ers 23, Seahawks 16
ATS
Seahawks +8.5
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
This is the most intriguing game of the week in my opinion. I think the 49ers are better. Although they just lost their starting running back (Eli Mitchell) for several weeks, their backup (Jeff Wilson) has plenty of juice and experience. The Seahawks looked good Monday night, and while I wouldn’t say they overachieved, I think the 49ers underachieved and will be locked in come Sunday for their home opener.
Bengals (0-1) at Cowboys (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 24, Cowboys 21
ATS
Cowboys +7
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
Cincinnati was exposed last week, in many areas. Their offensive line is far from fixed, their field goal operation is fractured, and Joe Burrow isn’t seeing the field well. Then again, the Cowboys lost Dak Prescott, have their own offensive line issues, and managed only three points at home last Sunday night. I see this as a three- or four-point game, but seven points (for either team) is way too much in my opinion.
Texans (0-0-1) at Broncos (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Broncos 28, Texans 20
ATS
Texans +9.5
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
This game might be the least entertaining game of the weekend. The Broncos completely laid an egg on Monday night, and as much as the Texans impressed against the Colts, they still only managed a tie. For betting purposes, take the generous offering of 9.5 points. Otherwise, I don’t see much entertainment value stemming from this matchup.
Cardinals (0-1) at Raiders (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Raiders 30, Cardinals 26
ATS
Cardinals +5.5
Total
Over 51.5
Analysis
Get ready for a shootout. These teams gave up a combined 655 yards and seven touchdowns passing a week ago. Passing is what these two offenses do best. Take the over and the points (see explanation for LAC at KC).
Bears (1-0) at Packers (0-1)
Sunday 9/18 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Bears 19, Packers 17
ATS
Bears +10
Total
Under 43
Analysis
I tell you; I could see the Bears winning outright. They have confidence. They have the ability to control the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. They’re getting 10 points. Chicago had a decent day in horrible weather conditions against a much better defense last week. The Packers however, just got torched against a team they know best. Green Bay may win, but 10 points is too much not to take.
Titans (0-1) at Bills (1-0)
Monday 9/19 at 7:15 pm ET
Pick
Bills 31, Titans 20
ATS
Bills -10
Total
Over 49.5
Analysis
The Bills are Super Bowl favorites for a reason. Their defense is fierce, and Josh Allen is playing on another level. The Titans will bring their best, but with Buffalo rolling and playing at home, I’ll give the 10 points and take the Bills.
Vikings (1-0) at Eagles (1-0)
Monday 9/19 at 8:30 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 28, Eagles 27
ATS
Eagles +1.5
Total
Over 51.5
Analysis
Minnesota looked really good versus Green Bay, although their over-reliance on Justin Jefferson may cause problems in the future. Philadelphia looked very good too, in Week 1, though they did cough up 35 points to the Lions. I’m taking the Vikings straight up but taking the points. Even if Jordan Davis can push the pocket up the middle and force Kirk Cousins off his spot, I still think the Vikings will be able to execute their offense.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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