Week 2: ATS 10-6, over/under 6-10

Year to date: ATS 19-13, over/under 14-18

Steelers (1-1) at Browns (1-1), Thursday 9/22 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Browns 20, Steelers 16

ATS

Steelers +5

Total

Under 38.5

Analysis

Nick Chubb is on a roll and the Steelers defense didn’t look great against the Patriots running attack. Amari Cooper is starting to get in a groove as well. This is the AFC North, however, so I will take the points and the under.

Bills (2-0) at Dolphins (2-0), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Buffalo 28, Miami 20

ATS

Buffalo -4

Total

Under 50.5

Analysis

The point total here is very high, even for two dynamic offenses. I can’t imagine Tua Tagovailoa has the same success this week that he had last week. I like Buffalo’s pass rush to be the difference and give the Bills a key division victory.

Bengals (0-2) at Jets (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Bengals 24, Jets 21

ATS

Jets +4.5

Total

Over 43

Analysis

Joe Flacco is back, baby! The Bengals should win this one, although, as the Jets have shown the first two weeks of the season, they can hold their own against the AFC North. With Cincinnati’s troubles still apparent and New York getting 4.5 points at home, I’m taking the Bengals to win and the Jets to cover.

Raiders (0-2) at Titans (0-2), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Raiders 27, Titans 21

ATS

Raiders -1

Total

Over 46

Analysis

The way the Raiders lost their Week 2 game was heartbreaking. I actually think it’ll be good from them to get away from home. No one on the Titans looks to be able to stop Davante Adams or Darren Waller. This looks like a really good spot for the Raiders to right a lot of wrongs and get their first win of the season.

Saints (1-1) at Panthers (0-2), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Saints 27, Panthers 20

ATS

Saints -3

Total

Over 40.5

Analysis

Carolina might be the worst team in football. Through two games, Baker Mayfield is averaging 190 passing yards, 53.8 completion percentage, and a quarterback rating of 79.6 per game. The Saints should be able to make enough plays on offense to get the lead early, keep it, and force Mayfield into disadvantageous passing situations.

Ravens (1-1) at Patriots (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 23, Patriots 20

ATS

Patriots +3

Total

Over 43

Analysis

My first instinct was to pick the Ravens winning, 23-20. I feel like this game will be close, as I think the Patriots keep games close but ultimately lose them in 2022. When in doubt of what to pick vs. the spread and for the point total, I’ll take the points and go over. Both teams need to win to keep pace in their respective divisions.

Lions (1-1) at Vikings (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 38, Lions 22

ATS

Vikings -7

Total

Over 52.5

Analysis

I’m happy for the Lions getting their first win, but even if Jeff Okudah was healthy (exited both games due to cramps), I would take the Vikings and lay the points. Quite simply, I don’t see any defensive back in football matching up with Justin Jefferson this year.

Eagles (2-0) at Commanders (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Eagles 28, Commanders 21

ATS

Eagles -4

Total

Under 50

Analysis

This may not be as lopsided of a game as it seems on the surface. The Commanders always play tough at home. The last two times they’ve hosted Philadelphia, Washington is 1-1 and has a combined scoring edge of 43-37. Jalen Hurts didn’t play in the 2020 game, and struggled last year struggled, going 17-for-26 for 214 yards. It seems obvious that the Eagles are the better team, and I think they win and cover, but all signs point to this being a close contest at the end.

Chiefs (2-0) at Colts (0-1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 27, Colts 13

ATS

Chiefs -6.5

Total

Under 49.5

Analysis

If the Colts can’t pass successfully now, what will they be able to do against a tough Chiefs defense? Patrick Mahomes “struggled” last week, so you know he’s going to be motivated to have a great game against the league’s 17th-ranked pass defense.

Texans (0-1-1) at Bears (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 1 pm ET

Pick

Bears 24, Texans 20

ATS

Bears -2.5

Total

Over 40.5

Analysis

The Bears have the edge at quarterback and are at home. If this game were in Houston, I’d take the points. But here, I’m taking Chicago and laying the 2.5. The Bears are 1-1 after two straight games against NFC powerhouses. You have to like their chances at home this week versus the Texans.

Jaguars (1-1) at Chargers (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 30, Jaguars 14

ATS

Chargers -7

Total

Under 48

Analysis

The Jaguars flying cross-country to play against a Chargers team coming off of 10 days rest? This could get ugly. It’s my lock of the week: Chargers -7.

Rams (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Rams 26, Cardinals 24

ATS

Cardinals +4

Total

Under 51

Analysis

Expect the unexpected when these two teams face off. Innovative play calls, 2-point conversions, multiple formations, etc. It’s hard to predict a winner, but I’m going to give the edge to the team I think is more mature and predict a 2-point Rams victory (but take the points for the Cardinals).

Packers (1-1) at Buccaneers (2-0), Sunday 9/25 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 24, Packers 21

ATS

Buccaneers -2

Total

Over 41

Analysis

A game with two legendary quarterbacks and stout defenses figures to be a very close contest. Which one variable inevitably impacts close games the most? Turnovers. Tampa Bay is tied for 2nd (+4), while Green Bay is tied for 23rd (-2).

Falcons (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Seahawks 19, Falcons 14

ATS

Seahawks -1.5

Total

Under 42

Analysis

I’m not quite sure what to make of this one. Both teams have been playing underwhelming football so far. DK Metcalf should make his fair share of plays, and I don’t think the Falcons have an answer for that. I’m going Seattle here but am taking the under in what I project to be a low-scoring game.

49ers (1-1) at Broncos (1-1), Sunday 9/25 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

49ers 28, Broncos 13

ATS

49ers -1

Total

Under 43.5

Analysis

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Broncos have flat out looked bad. On the flip side, San Francisco looked determined to get a victory against last week, despite the loss of their franchise-quarterback-to-be. Jerry Jeudy’s shoulder injury doesn’t help matters for Denver, but even if he was 100 percent, I wouldn’t trust the Broncos offense on the road against the 49ers.

Cowboys (1-1) at Giants (2-0), Monday 9/26 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Giants 27, Cowboys 24

ATS

Giants -2.5

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

Even without Dak Prescott, this should be a very entertaining game. I like what Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush brings to the table and could actually see the Giants’ early-season winning streak end on Monday night. The difference-maker, though, is Saquon Barkley. Can Micah Parsons be deployed as a Saquon spy? Maybe. Either way, this should be a fantastic way to end Week 3. The Giants being the slightly better team and playing at home gives me enough confidence to lay the points and project them to improve to 3-0, something they haven’t done since 2009.

Michael Fast
Michael Fast

Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.

When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.

To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.

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