Week 3: ATS 2-12-2, over/under 6-8-2
Year to date: ATS 21-25-2, over/under 20-26-2
Bengals (1-2) at Dolphins (3-0), Thursday 9/29 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 26, Bengals 23
ATS
Dolphins +3.5
Total
Over 47
Analysis
I’m surprised the Bengals aren’t doing so well to start the season, but I’m not surprised the Dolphins are cruising. Miami just beat the Bills and are riding a high. Buffalo’s secondary is scrambling, which is the worst thing to have happen when you’re set to face Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The x-factor here could be Dolphins running back Chase Edmonds, who’s plenty talented, just not used very often (29 total touches in three games). He could very conceivably eat up space vacated by Waddle and Hill.
Vikings (2-1) at Saints (1-2), Sunday 10/2 at 9:30 am ET
Pick
Vikings 28, Saints 17
ATS
Vikings -2.5
Total
Over 44
Analysis
Minnesota came from behind last week to triumph over a proud Lions team. This week, they head to London to face off against the Saints, who, are coming off their second-consecutive loss. Justin Jefferson was quiet a week ago, but don’t count on that being the case this week. New Orleans is struggling to score points, and while Minnesota doesn’t have everything worked out, scoring is one thing they can do well.
Browns (2-1) at Falcons (1-2), Sunday 10/2 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Browns 28, Falcons 20
ATS
Browns -1.5
Total
Under 50
Analysis
If Nick Chubb gets 20+ carries and Kareem Hunt gets 10+ touches, I don’t see how the Falcons can compete. That duo is too dynamic for this Atlanta defense. When those two players got that many carries/touches this year, the Browns have won. When that didn’t happen is when the Browns lost.
Bills (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)
Pick
ATS
Ravens +3.5
Total
Under 52
Analysis
While the Bills lost last week and are without some of their star defenders, the Ravens looked far from perfect themselves in New England. I’m glad Baltimore is playing at home, but until Ronnie Stanley gets back into the fold and the Ravens can have confidence in their pass protection, any game they play will be in doubt. Not to mention, the Ravens are going up against a Bills pass rush that’s tied for 3rd in the league with 11 sacks this season.
Commanders (1-2) at Cowboys (2-1), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 24, Commanders 16
ATS
Cowboys -3
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
The Commanders got embarrassed at home last week when they couldn’t stop the Eagles pass rush. I don’t think Dallas’ is as good but having to go on the road after just being destroyed isn’t something I think Washington can come back from within a week’s time. Dallas won a low-scoring game against the Giants in Week 3, and I think that same result happens for them this week at home.
Seahawks (1-2) at Lions (1-2), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Lions 28, Seahawks 25
ATS
Seahawks +4.5
Total
Over 50
Analysis
I trust the Lions to be a little more disciplined in the late-game moments than I do the Seahawks. A total of 50 is pretty high, but I’m going over here. If, for whatever reason, Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) isn’t available, I’d still take the Lions but would switch to the under.
Chargers (1-2) at Texans (0-2-1), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 31, Texans 14
ATS
Chargers -5
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
Last week I pegged the Chargers as my lock of the week. That may be the last time I ever make a lock of the week. Horrible look on my part, but we move forward! I think the Chargers are too good to not bounce back with authority this week. Look for Austin Ekeler (4 carries for 5 yards last week) to get back on track this Sunday against the league’s worst run defense.
Titans (1-2) at Colts (1-1-1), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Colts 21, Titans 17
ATS
Colts -3
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
Derrick Henry versus Jonathan Taylor. They rank 14th and 4th in rushing, respectively. Both teams have struggled to put together a complete game thus far, and I don’t think this Sunday will be any different. I like the Colts’ passing game a little more than I do the Titans, so I’ll give Indy the edge here.
Bears (2-1) at Giants (2-1), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Giants 24, Bears 23
ATS
Bears +3.5
Total
Over 39
Analysis
The Bears are quietly doing well so far this season. How the Giants react to having to go on the road to face the Bears after losing their first game of the year will say a lot about them. If New York can score first, I think they will win. Otherwise, I see Chicago maintaining their momentum and moving to 3-1. Either way, it should be a sneaky good game. I feel like Justin Fields has a better game than Daniel Jones, but that the Giants find a way to grab a victory in the final moments.
Jaguars (2-1) at Eagles (3-0), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 23, Jaguars 21
ATS
Jaguars +6.5
Total
Under 48.5
Analysis
Guess which team leads the league in turnover differential and run defense? That’s right. Jacksonville. Doug Pederson returns to the city for which he helped win a Super Bowl, along with a very good, young, defense and some explosive playmakers on offense. By no means am I saying Philadelphia’s start has been a fluke—it’s not. I’m just saying the Jaguars can really make this a game.
Jets (1-2) at Steelers (1-2), Sunday 10/2 at 1 pm ET
Pick
Jets 24, Steelers 23
ATS
Jets +3.5
Total
Over 40.5
Analysis
Another week, another AFC North opponent for the Jets. To start this season, the Jets have lost to the Ravens at home, beaten the Browns on the road, and lost to the Bengals at home. If this pattern holds, the Jets will win this week on the road against the Steelers.
Can the Steelers really start the season 1-3, even with all the injuries they’ve sustained? Actually, yes. Here is how Pittsburgh started through four games over the last four seasons:
2021: 1-3
2020: 4-0
2019: 1-3
2018: 1-2-1
While the Jets are also 1-2, they’re not the pushover many of us thought they’d be. For betting purposes, take the points. As for a straight up pick, I like the Jets. They have more playmakers and more momentum right now.
Cardinals (1-2) at Panthers (1-2), Sunday 10/2 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Cardinals 19, Panthers 16
ATS
Cardinals +2.5
Total
Under 43
Analysis
This could be an ugly game. It features two teams led by innovative, yet under-performing head coaches and very confident quarterbacks that haven’t received a return they’ve expected. Rarely do teams have the defensive personnel like Arizona does that’s similar in athleticism to Christian McCaffrey. How linebacker Isaiah Simmons defends McCaffrey should be a fascinating matchup. Other than that, expect a lot of passing, a few turnovers, and an underwhelming contest.
Patriots (1-2) at Packers (2-1), Sunday 10/2 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Packers 30, Patriots 13
ATS
Packers -10.5
Total
Over 40
Analysis
Even if Mac Jones was healthy, which he’s not, I don’t think the Patriots can do much in this game. The Packers aren’t the greatest team, either, but coming off a big-time win against the Buccaneers will give them confidence that they can beat anyone. The one thing New England does have is a good running game, and Green Bay’s run defense ranks 18th in football. I don’t think that’s enough to win, but it could keep the score close in the first half.
Broncos (2-1) at Raiders (0-3), Sunday 10/2 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Broncos 23, Raiders 19
ATS
Raiders -2
Total
Under 45.5
Analysis
I have no idea how the Broncos are 2-1, and I have no idea how the Raiders are 0-3. The records should be switched, in my opinion. But this is the NFL. You get the record you deserve. Even though the Broncos don’t look great according to the eye test, they’re two points away from being undefeated. This will be a big test for the Raiders, as they have struggled to score, and the Broncos are allowing only 12 points per game.
Chiefs (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1), Sunday 10/2 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 21
ATS
Chiefs -2.5
Total
Over 45
Analysis
I know Tampa Bay’s defense is playing great right now, and I know Kansas City’s offense is in a bit of a rough patch. I also know Patrick Mahomes is an absolute difference-maker. I think the combination of he, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce scores just enough for the Chiefs to get the win on Sunday Night.
Rams (2-1) at 49ers (1-2), Monday 10/3 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Rams 23, 49ers 19
ATS
Rams -2.5
Total
Under 42.5
Analysis
I thought the 49ers would be a Super Bowl contender this year, and they still may be. However, losing to the Bears and Broncos is not something most of us saw coming. Not having Trey Lance hurts, but the Rams won’t care. Look for Aaron Donald to be a constant presence in the San Francisco backfield, and for Kyle Shanahan to feed the ball to Deebo Samuel early and often. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a good pass rush, but the Rams have the players to defeat it. I see a 1-score game, but a game which feels like it’ll only ever have one winner.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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