Week 4: ATS 10-6, over/under 12-4

Year to date: ATS 32-30-2, over/under 31-31-2

Colts (1-2-1) at Broncos (2-2), Thursday 10/6 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Broncos 26, Colts 19

ATS

Denver -3

Total

43.5

Analysis

The Broncos are going to be without Javonte Williams for the rest of the season after he tore his ACL in last Sunday’s game against the Raiders. Even with him, their offense has really struggled, scoring only 17 points per game. Still, the Colts are underperforming and head on the road where they are 17-19-1 under Frank Reich.

Giants (3-1) at Packers (3-1), Sunday 10/9 at 9:30 am ET

Pick

Giants 28, Packers 24

ATS

Giants +8

Total

Over 41.5

Analysis

For some reason, I think the Giants win this game outright. Saquon Barkley is back to his usual dynamic self, and the Packers, while 3-1, seem dysfunctional and lacking an offensive spark. This game being played in London is an advantage for the Giants as they won’t need to play at Lambeau Field, even though it’s technically a Packers home game. New York ranks 8th in pass defense, which I believe will present a significant challenge to Aaron Rodgers, who this year is without his usual stellar receiving core.

Steelers (1-3) at Bills (3-1), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Steelers 23, Bills 20

ATS

Steelers +14

Total

Under 47

Analysis

I know the Steelers are really struggling, and I know this seems like a blowout on paper. However, the Bills have been very shaky over the last two weeks and the Steelers will be desperate to avoid a 1-4 start. They now have their best option at quarterback and giving him a full week of practice can only help matters. Fourteen points is way too much in my opinion (I think it should be more like seven or eight). As much as the eye test tells you one thing, I can’t imagine the Steelers going 1-4 and the Bills escaping a loss for a 2nd-straight week.

Chargers (2-2) at Browns (2-2), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Chargers 31, Browns 30

ATS

Browns +3

Total

Over 49

Analysis

Both teams boast excellent running attacks. I think the Chargers are better overall, but the Browns are always a tough out. This one should come down to the wire. Cleveland’s offense ranks 4th, and Los Angeles’ ranks 7th. This is a spot where the quarterback really comes through. Chargers win by the slightest of margins.

Bears (2-2) at Vikings (3-1), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Vikings 31, Bears 14

ATS

Vikings -7

Total

Over 43

Analysis

I really don’t see how this game is that close. The Vikings have too much offensive firepower and are in a groove. The Bears can make some plays, but the Vikings have more options to deploy in the event this game becomes a shootout.

Lions (1-3) at Patriots (1-3), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Patriots 24, Lions 17

ATS

Patriots -3

Total

Under 47

Analysis

The Lions just can’t seem to close games out. Do they play hard? Absolutely. Do they consistently execute the “little things” well? No.

The Patriots are almost the opposite. They struggle to get going at times, but once they get momentum, their running game pounds away at the opposition and they execute the little things very well.

Given the Patriots playing at home, it’s hard for me to see a scenario in which the Lions have a chance to win.

Seahawks (2-2) at Saints (1-3), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Seahawks 27, Saints 24

ATS

Saints -5.5

Total

Over 45

Analysis

Seattle went wild last week, scoring 48 points on the road against the Lions. The Saints lost a very close game to the Vikings after battling back late. Though New Orleans is at home, I favor Seattle here, as the Seahawks are rolling. Even if they don’t win outright, I feel comfortable taking the points.

Dolphins (3-1) at Jets (2-2), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Dolphins 27, Jets 23

ATS

Dolphins -3.5

Total

Over 44.5

Analysis

The Jets have been playing every team tough this year, but Miami is just better, not to mention they will be coming off a 10-day break when this game kicks off.

Falcons (2-2) at Buccaneers (2-2), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Buccaneers 28, Falcons 16

ATS

Buccaneers -7.5

Total

Under 48

Analysis

Tampa got embarrassed at home last Sunday night, so you better believe they will be laser-focused this Sunday. At 2-2, they have to keep pace with other NFC front-runners and start to create some positive distance in the NFC South. This is their first division game of the season, and in addition to the fact they’re at home, the Falcons will have an uphill battle in front of them.

Titans (2-2) at Commanders (1-3), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Titans 23, Commander 20

ATS

Titans -2.5

Total

Over 42.5

Analysis

For the football purists, this may be one of the best games of the week. Run and stop the run. Whichever team does that better should come away with the victory.

Texans (0-3-1) at Jaguars (2-2), Sunday 10/9 at 1:00 pm ET

Pick

Jaguars 28, Texans 17

ATS

Texans +7

Total

Over 44.5

Analysis

I want to pick the Texans. I acknowledge the Jaguars are much improved from a year ago, but I still don’t really believe in them. The Texans got their running game going a bit against the Chargers, which can open up a lot more of their offensive playbook against the Jaguars. If Derek Stingley can keep Christian Kirk in check, that’ll go a long way in helping Houston win their first game of the season.

At the end of the day, I feel like Houston is close, but not close enough. However, I will confidently take the points.

49ers (2-2)** at Panthers (1-3), Sunday 10/9 at 4:05 pm ET

Pick

49ers 23, Panthers 21

ATS

Panthers +5

Total

Over 39.5

Analysis

These two teams are a combined -3 in turnover ratio. The 49ers are favored by five points but are coming off a very tough game against the Rams and are travelling on a short week. In what should be a very interesting, but strangely-even game, I’m taking the Niners to win but the Panthers to cover.

Cowboys (3-1) at Rams (2-1)**, Sunday 10/9 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Rams 24, Cowboys 20

ATS

Cowboys +4.5

Total

Under 45.5

Analysis

Dallas is 3-1 and has gotten to this point with a backup quarterback. The Rams have started well, eliminating any evidence of a Super Bowl hangover. Can Jalen Ramsey contain CeeDee Lamb? Maybe. Can the Dallas offensive line protect against LA’s pass rush? Perhaps. This looks like an even matchup, but I’m giving the edge to the Rams. Trevon Diggs has given up chunks of yardage to receivers far less qualified than Cooper Kupp.

Eagles (4-0) at Cardinals (2-2), Sunday 10/9 at 4:25 pm ET

Pick

Cardinals 29, Eagles 24

ATS

Cardinals +5.5

Total

Over 49.5

Analysis

The Eagles are very good, but this feels like the perfect spot for an upset. The Cardinals are kind of treading water and don’t have a lot of pressure on them. The Eagles, however, continue to elevate expectations and have a home matchup against the Cowboys next week before getting a bye week.

Arizona is willing to throw it 50 times per game if necessary, and they may have to as Philly’s defensive front is fierce. Have the Eagles been the superior team to this point? No question. That said, I just have a feeling they get tripped up this Sunday in the desert.

Bengals (2-2) at Ravens (2-2), Sunday 10/9 at 8:20 pm ET

Pick

Ravens 26, Bengals 23

ATS

Ravens -3

Total

Over 48.5

Analysis

Quite frankly, the Ravens can’t afford to lose this game. They have never lost six straight home games. Lamar Jackson is in a contract year. The Ravens, if they wake up, have a real chance to make a bid for the Super Bowl. Losing six straight at home and their first divisional game of the year is a prospect that will cause many to call for multiple coaching changes. Conversely, winning against the defending AFC Champion will vindicate themselves from last year’s home debacle against the Bengals.

Cincinnati is in a tough spot themselves. They’ve lost two games by a total of six points this season. This is the start of a 4-game stretch for them during which they’re on the road three times. They are coming off a mini bye week, though, so they’ll be rested.

Expect fireworks on Sunday night.

Raiders (1-3) at Chiefs (3-1), Monday 10/10 at 8:15 pm ET

Pick

Chiefs 35, Raiders 27

ATS

Chiefs -7

Total

Over 51

Analysis

As I’ve said many times, I believe Patrick Mahomes is the best player in football. He lost his most dynamic weapon (Tyreek Hill) in the offseason but remains as dynamic as ever. The Raiders won their first game of the year last week but are comprehensively outmatched here. They could win, but from a betting and probability standpoint, I’m going with the Chiefs all the way.

Michael Fast
Michael Fast

Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.

When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.

To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.

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