Week 5: ATS 8-5-3, 10-6
Year to date: ATS 40-35-5, over/under 41-37-2
Commanders (1-4) at Bears (2-3), Thursday 10/13 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Bears 23, Commanders 21
ATS
Bears -1
Total
Over 38
Analysis
Bottom line: I think the Bears are slightly less bad than the Commanders. Washington has a couple nice pieces on their roster, but they have really struggled this year as a complete unit. In their one win, they had to come from behind to beat the Jaguars by six points at home.
49ers (3-2) at Falcons (2-3), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
49ers 22, Falcons 17
ATS
Falcons +5.5
Total
Under 43
Analysis
The Falcons have had two consecutive close losses, and I think that number goes to three this week. In fact, every game Atlanta has played this season has been decided by one score. Their overall point differential: -4. Though they’re playing at home, I think San Francisco has enough talent to overwhelm Atlanta. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons win, but taking the points seems like the right play here.
Patriots (2-3) at Browns (2-3), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Patriots 23, Browns 20
ATS
Patriots +3
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
Get ready for a lot of power football. Nick Chubb is the league’s leading rusher. He’s an elite back, but Rhamondre Stevenson is really coming into his own as well. This should be a very close game, but I give the edge to Bill Belichick over Kevin Stefanski.
Jets (3-2) at Packers (3-2), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Packers 27, Jets 21
ATS
Jets +7
Total
Over 46
Analysis
What has gotten into the Jets? Entering Week 6, they’re a winning football team and playing with a lot of confidence. The Packers, too, are a winning team but lost a close one last week in London against the Giants.
Green Bay has had five different receivers in each week this season. I’m not sure if that’s an indication of versatility or lack of consistency. Either way, Green Bay’s running game should be enough to hold off any New York rallies.
Jaguars (2-3) at Colts (2-2-1), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Jaguars 20, Colts 17
ATS
Jaguars +2
Total
Under 42
Analysis
To be quite honest, there’s not a lot to like between these two teams. However, the Jaguars are +1 in turnovers this year while the Colts are -6. In a game that figures to be very close, I’m giving the edge to the team that takes care of the football.
Vikings (4-1) at Dolphins (3-2), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Vikings 24, Dolphins 16
ATS
Vikings -3
Total
Under 45.5
Analysis
Minnesota is rolling and Miami is reeling. The Vikings got a big game last week from Dalvin Cook to go along with another excellent performance from Justin Jefferson. Miami, however, is still without Tua Tagovailoa and they lost Teddy Bridgewater last game after just one pass attempt.
Miami is 2-0 at home this year but being down to your 3rd-string quarterback against a 4-1 Vikings team leads me to believe the Dolphins will constantly be playing from behind in this one. Advantage Vikings.
Bengals (2-3) at Saints (2-3), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Saints 24, Bengals 21
ATS
Saints +2
Total
Over 43.5
Analysis
This matchup should be wide open. The Bengals lost a heartbreaker last Sunday night in Baltimore, and I could see them coming out flat or coming out hot. The Saints have been scoring a lot this year (14th in the league in point per game), but the Bengals defense has stood firm, allowing the 8th-fewest points of any team in the NFL.
If this game were being played anywhere but New Orleans, I’d lean Cincinnati. However, I have a feeling the Saints get just enough chunk plays against the Bengals on Sunday afternoon.
Ravens (3-2) at Giants (4-1), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 28, Giants 26
ATS
Giants +5
Total
Over 44
Analysis
The Giants may not be for real yet. We can’t really know how good any team is until their nucleus reaches and succeeds in the playoffs. That said, New York looks good and has been performing well in tight situations thus far—something the Ravens just last week were able to say for themselves.
Baltimore’s run defense will be stretched and tested on Sunday, as they’re set to face Saquon Barkley for the first time ever.
There’s going to be intriguing matchups all over the field and between coaches. This game could very well come down to the kicking game, and while no one is as good as Justin Tucker, Graham Gano has been playing great football in 2022 (11-for-13 on field goal attempts, including 4-for-4 from 50 yards or more).
Getting over the hump against the Bengals was big. Not only did it break the home game losing streak, but it gave Baltimore confidence they needed so their mental game can realign with their physical game. By and large, Baltimore is a group that, once they get a much-needed reality check, they remain focused for a long time.
Buccaneers (3-2) at Steelers (1-4), Sunday 10/16 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Buccaneers 23, Steelers 14
ATS
Buccaneers -8
Total
Under 43.5
Analysis
The Buccaneers defense figures to overwhelm the Steelers offense. Tampa’s offense has some capabilities similar to Buffalo’s offense, which of course spells more trouble for Pittsburgh.
I do see Kenny Pickett making a few plays this Sunday. He’s not going to go away. He’s going to keep battling. But knowing what each team can offer from an overall standpoint, I’m not worried about laying the eight points.
Panthers (1-4) at Rams (2-3), Sunday 10/16 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Rams 27, Panthers 6
ATS
Rams -11
Total
Under 41
Analysis
In what figures to be the most lopsided game of the week, the Panthers, led by a new (interim) head coach and their 3rd-string quarterback travel almost 2,500 miles west to face the defending Super Bowl champions.
Anytime there’s a double-digit favorite, I have cause to hesitate, no matter how much of an imbalance there seems to be on paper. I definitely think the Rams will win and cover, but I don’t think it’ll be an unmitigated domination.
Cardinals (2-3) at Seahawks (2-3), Sunday 10/16 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Seahawks 30, Cardinals 24
ATS
Seattle +3
Total
Over 51
Analysis
I do not like the vibes coming out of Arizona this year, period. Even the big game they won in overtime recently against the Raiders almost didn’t count. After making a great fumble recovery, their defender nearly fumbled before crossing the goal line because he was celebrating. Just weird stuff going on.
Seattle, conversely, is playing a lot better than I thought they would and actually match up well with Arizona. I think the Seahawks win outright, heaping even more pressure on Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray.
Bills (4-1) at Chiefs (4-1), Sunday 10/16 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 27, Bills 24
ATS
Chiefs +3
Total
Under 54
Analysis
The game of the year to this point. Two MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Two very good defenses. Two elite head coaches. What more could you ask for?
You could easily justify picking either team, straight up or against the spread. However, I’m going with the man I believe to be the best player in football: Patrick Mahomes. There’s something about big games at Arrowhead with he and Andy Reid at the helm that reminds me of big games at Foxboro with Belichick and Brady in charge of the Patriots.
Cowboys (4-1) at Eagles (5-0), Sunday 10/16 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Eagles 28, Cowboys 19
ATS
Eagles -5
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
The winner of this game takes 1st place in the NFC East through the first six weeks of the season. I don’t think the Eagles will go undefeated, but I don’t think they lose this week. They just seem determined to be in it for the long haul in 2022.
Cooper Rush has been very good, as has Dallas’ defense. That said, Trevon Diggs is still allowing way too many yards, surely attracting the attention of Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith going up against Diggs? Good luck, Dallas.
Broncos (2-3) at Chargers (3-2), Monday 10/17 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 23, Broncos 20
ATS
Broncos +5
Total
Over 45.5
Analysis
I have no idea how the Broncos have even won a game this year, much less two. They looked horrendous against the Colts last Thursday night and I have no reason to believe they’ll be any better this week. The Chargers have had problems of their own but are nowhere near as flawed as the Broncos.
Even if this game were in Denver, I’d take Los Angeles. It’s being played in LA, which gives me even more confidence in picking the Chargers.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
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