Last week: 9-5 ATS, 8-5-1 over/under
Year to date: 49-40-5 ATS, 49-42-3 over/under
Saints (2-4) at Cardinals (2-4), Thursday 10/20 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Saints 34, Cardinals 30
ATS
Saints +1.5
Total
Over 44.5
Analysis
The Saints have scored an average of 30 points per game in their last three games after scoring 17 points per game in their first three games. While they’re only 2-4, as are the Cardinals, Arizona seems broken.
Monday afternoon, sources said the Cardinals traded for Carolina wideout Robbie Anderson. He was clearly disgruntled with the Panthers, so a fresh start is usually a good thing, except that the team he’s going to is equally as dysfunctional as the one he’s coming from. Even though they’re on the road, I like the Saints to win outright.
Falcons (3-3) at Bengals (3-3), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Bengals 21, Falcons 20
ATS
Falcons +6
Total
Under 45.5
Analysis
Atlanta continues to impress, as they gained a strong victory against San Francisco in Week 6. The Bengals edged the Saints on the road last week, getting their record back to .500 and some important momentum ahead of this week. If the Bengals win and the Ravens lose (versus the Browns), Cincinnati will assume 1st place in the AFC North. If the Falcons win, they’ll enjoy a winning record for the first time in nearly five years (12/31/17).
I expect a very tough fight for Atlanta and am going to take the points, but being that the Bengals are home, I’m picking them to win the game.
Lions (1-4) at Cowboys (4-2), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Cowboys 28, Lions 17
ATS
Cowboys -7
Total
Under 48
Analysis
This game features matchups between the No. 2 offense (Detroit) against the No. 8 defense (Dallas), and the No. 27 offense (Dallas) against the No. 32 defense (Detroit). I think the Lions can put together a couple of scoring drives, but Dallas’ defense has looked too good to make me believe the Lions will score 20 or more points. Conversely, I don’t see how Detroit’s defense can limit Dallas’ offense to under 24 points.
I see this as a 1-score game, late, with Dallas punching in an insurance touchdown, then stopping Detroit’s last-ditch comeback effort with a turnover.
Colts (3-2-1) at Titans (3-2), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Colts 23, Titans 20
ATS
Colts +2.5
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
This looks to me like a really ugly game between two sub-par teams. I think the over hits, but just barely. The Colts have the better quarterback and better players at the skill positions, so I will lean Indy here (especially since they’re getting points).
Packers (3-3) at Commanders (2-4), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Packers 23, Commanders 16
ATS
Packers -5
Total
Under 41.5
Analysis
For whatever reason, the Commanders always play tough at home, no matter the opponent. Whether it’s led by Kirk Cousin, Taylor Heinicke, or Carson Wentz, Washington may not be having a good season, but they always play tough at home. That’s not good news for Green Bay, as they’re not exactly cruising at the moment. Look for Washington to take a couple of downfield shots early to either Terry McLaurin or Dyami Brown. If Green Bay can defend the deep ball, they should be okay. If not, it could be a sizeable upset in the NFC.
In the end, I like Rashaan Gary and Green Bay’s pass rush to collapse the pocket and force Washington’s quarterback into making some errant throws, preventing the Commanders from establishing a consistent offensive threat.
Buccaneers (3-3) at Panthers (1-5), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Panthers +10
ATS
Buccaneers 24, Panthers 18
Total
Over 41
Analysis
Weird game here. Tampa Bay was a double-digit road favorite last week and lost outright. Carolina fired its head coach last week and just traded one of their main offensive weapons. On paper, Tampa should dominate, but the spread is too much for me to give, especially since the Panthers are at home and the Buccaneers are on the road for the second straight week.
Giants (5-1) at Jaguars (2-4), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Giants 23, Jaguars, 21
ATS
Giants +3
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
The Jaguars are like the Commanders. Competitive, but not quite able to close games out. The Giants, however, have been able to do just the opposite—finish games, despite tense circumstances. I have no idea how they’re getting points, but I’m taking the Giants outright.
Browns (2-4) at Ravens (3-3), Sunday 10/23 at 1:00 pm ET
Pick
Ravens 27, Browns 23
ATS
Ravens -6
Total
Over 46.5
Analysis
Both teams need this game, have fallen short at the end of games this year, and have been led by inconsistent quarterback play. Lamar Jackson started the year like an MVP but his 4th quarter QB rating this season is below 60. Baltimore’s Week 5 win versus Cincinnati was huge, as it gave them a division win and broke its home losing streak. Expect a back-and-forth contest decided by Justin Tucker and the league’s best special teams unit.
Jets (4-2) at Broncos (2-4), Sunday 10/23 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Jets 26, Broncos 17
ATS
Jets +3
Total
Over 42.5
Analysis
This is a tricky game to predict, as both defenses have been playing well. However, when a matchup is so seemingly lopsided, it doesn’t always play out the way you think it will. Denver’s scoring defense ranks 4th in the league. The problem is their offense just flat out cannot score consistently enough. In fact, the Broncos scoring offense is the worst in football. The Jets, though, have been able to produce a well-rounded offense, scoring the 10th-most points in the league.
Like the Giants game, I’m shocked how the better team is getting points. Go with New York here, take the points and (cautiously) take the over.
Texans (1-3-1) at Raiders (1-4), Sunday 10/23 at 4:05 pm ET
Pick
Texans 29, Raiders 27
ATS
Texans +7
Total
Over 45.5
Analysis
The Raiders and Texans are both coming off bye weeks. This should be a close contest with a lot of scoring. I know the Raiders seem like the clear winner here, but for some reason I think the Texans trip them up. While I’m not as sure about the outright winner, taking the seven points is the clear play here in my opinion.
Seahawks (3-3) at Chargers (4-2), Sunday 10/23 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chargers 27, Seahawks 21
ATS
Seahawks +7
Total
Under 52.5
Analysis
The Seahawks are scoring in bunches and the Chargers are doing okay but have some issues—most notably, they’re missing Keenan Allen. Getting this Seahawks team indoors in late October against an up-and-down Chargers club gives me confidence enough to take the points. That said, this is still a quarterback-driven league, and I can’t imagine Justin Herbert has another down game in Week 7 like he did in Week 6.
Chiefs (4-2) at 49ers (3-3), Sunday 10/23 at 4:25 pm ET
Pick
Chiefs 26, 49ers 21
ATS
Chiefs -3
Total
Under 48
Analysis
Kansas City and San Francisco play in the game of the week. They have exceptionally creative play callers for head coaches and stud offensive playmakers to execute said plays. They have All-Pro caliber players on their defensive line and playmakers in the secondary. In a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, I’m taking Kansas City. I think these teams will be more deliberate in their play-calling than usual, leading to my choice of taking the under.
Steelers (2-4) at Dolphins (3-3), Sunday 10/23 at 8:20 pm ET
Pick
Dolphins 28, Steelers 17
ATS
Dolphins -7
Total
Over 44
Analysis
Pittsburgh got a big win last week at home, but now they head on the road in what is very likely a “let down” game. The Steelers secondary is decimated, and there isn’t a better wide receiver tandem in the league than the one Miami boasts. If the Dolphins quarterback situation were stable, this would be a blowout. As it stands, I’m plenty comfortable laying the seven points and picking the Dolphins.
Bears (2-4) at Patriots (3-3), Monday 10/24 at 8:15 pm ET
Pick
Patriots 31, Bears 19
ATS
Patriots -7.5
Total
Over 39.5
Analysis
The Bears are 31st in the league in scoring (15.7 points per game). New England is at home and are really starting to click on offense. This spread could be 14 points, and I’d still take the Patriots.
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.