The Lineup: 2022 NFL Wild Card Weekend

Last week: ATS 7-9, over/under 7-9

2022 totals: ATS 137-126-8 (51.3%), over/under 131-137-3 (48.9%)

No. 7 Seahawks at No. 2 49ers, Saturday 1/14 at 4:30 pm ET on FOX

Pick

49ers 28, Seahawks 20

ATS

Seahawks +10

Total

Over 43.5

Meetings this year

2-0 49ers, +28 point differential

Analysis

The Seahawks have an offense. Geno Smith threw 30 touchdowns in the regular season—one of four quarterbacks to do so. Kenneth Walker III is a stud rookie running back that will carry the team if need be. DK Metcalf, is, well, unguardable when he wants to be.

I think the 49ers win this game, but a rookie quarterback starting his first playoff game is something that can cause disruptions to San Francisco’s offensive tempo. One missed play call, one delay of game, one bad read can be the difference between winning and losing.

Ten points is a crazy line, so I’m definitely taking the Seahawks and the points. I think they have a good chance to win outright, as well. But at the end of the day, I like DeMeco Ryans to limit the Seattle offense enough to allow Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to each score a touchdown and team up for over 250 total yards.

No. 5 Chargers at No. 4 Jaguars, Saturday 1/14 at 8:15 pm ET on NBC

Pick

Jaguars 23, Chargers 21

ATS

Jaguars -1

Total

Under 47

Meeting this year

38-10 Jaguars win

Analysis

Face it, the Jaguars are a good team. The Chargers, for all their talent, have holes. As the line suggests, this game is essentially a “pick ‘em.” In these situations, I look at the quarterbacks. Is there really a big gap between the two? Not as big as you’d think:

• Justin Herbert: 4,739 passing yards, 68.2% completion, 25 TD, 10 INT, 93.2 rating
• Trevor Lawrence: 4,113 passing yards, 66.3% completion, 25 TD, 8 INT, 95.2 rating

The two main differences between these quarterbacks are passing yards and sacks. Herbert throws for more yards but has also been sacked more than Lawrence. That tells me the Chargers offense is more volatile than Jacksonville’s, giving me confidence the Jaguars (at home) will eek this one out.

Evan Engram is my x-factor for this game. When these two teams met in Week 3, he caught one pass for nine yards. However, since the start of December, Engram has averaged six receptions for 68 yards per game and has scored three touchdowns. If he gets going, it could be a long day for Los Angeles.

No. 7 Dolphins at No. 2 Bills, Sunday 1/15 at 1:00 pm on CBS

Pick

Bills 23, Dolphins 20

ATS

Dolphins +11

Total

Under 44

Meetings this year

1-1, Bills +1 point differential

Analysis

If Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, I love the Dolphins +11 points. I think the combination of Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill is dangerous, even on the road in Buffalo.

If Tua isn’t healthy, this one could get ugly quick. The Dolphins defense is pretty good, but if they have to take on more of their fair share of the burden, they could bend just enough to give Buffalo a window to go up two scores. If that happens, I don’t see Miami’s offense coming from behind on the road.

No. 6 Giants at No. 3 Vikings, Sunday 1/15 at 4:30 pm on FOX

Pick

Vikings 26, Giants 21

ATS

Vikings -3

Total

Under 47.5

Meeting this year

27-24 Vikings win

Analysis

Justin Jefferson, the league’s leading receiver, has been having some “down” games recently. Expect him to go off Sunday afternoon. The last time these two teams met, Jefferson caught 12 passes (season high) for 133 yards and a touchdown.

I like Saquon Barkley and I think Daniel Jones is a good quarterback. Yet, if Jefferson starts hot, Minnesota has too many other horses for New York to compete with. Even if Jefferson doesn’t have a huge game, the Vikings have enough supplementary weapons to give the Giants fits.

I think the Minnesota money line is a solid bet, and I’m comfortable giving the three points. I may even tease it up to four points by week’s end.

No. 6 Ravens at No. 3 Bengals, Sunday 1/15 at 8:15 pm on NBC

Pick

Ravens 23, Bengals 21

ATS

Ravens +6.5

Total

Over 43.5

Meetings this year

1-1, Bengals +9 point differential

Analysis

This game is all about one thing: Lamar Jackson. If he plays, I think the Ravens win outright. If not, as much as I want Baltimore to triumph, it’s hard to see a way they do.

Last week, Baltimore’s defense played pretty well, all things considered. The Ravens offense turned the ball over three times and the Bengals, playing their starters, could’ve had a lot more points on the scoreboard if it weren’t for the Ravens’ resolute Ravens defenders. Specifically, the Bengals only managed 55 yards rushing—their 3rd lowest total of the season. Joe Burrow averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt (well below his career average of 7.7 yards).

I’m telling you; the playoffs are famous for lightning-quick turnarounds (in both directions). As bad as the Ravens have looked over the last few weeks, if Jackson plays, this could be the upset of the playoffs.

You never know.

No. 5 Cowboys at No. 4 Buccaneers, Monday 1/16 at 8:15 pm on ESPN

Pick

Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 16

ATS

Buccaneers +3

Total

Under 45

Meetings this year

19-3 Buccaneers win

Analysis

Wow. How bad did the Cowboys look last week? At some point, you can’t keep making excuses for them. Sure, they have talented individual players. Yes, a 12-win season is a big accomplishment. Does it seem like they could’ve been much better this season? Absolutely.

Tampa Bay isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but the Buccaneers are clearly on more solid footing than the Cowboys. In Week 18, the Commanders gave the Cowboys every opportunity to win the game last week, but Dallas couldn’t get the job done.

I think Tampa Bay wins this game for one reason: their defensive front. As you saw last week, when Washington’s defense reset the line of scrimmage, Dallas’ offense was scrambling. Tampa Bay absolutely has the personnel to do the same thing to the Cowboys this week.

Take points and don’t look back.