The MLB Races With Three Weeks To Go

We are three weeks from the end of the regular season.

Wait, how is this possible? Didn’t we just get started?

I know, crazy but true! But since we are already in the stretch run, let’s take a look at the races. I for one am looking forward to Sept. 27, when we’ll have 15 three-inning triple-headers to make up for all the lost games. It’s going to get interesting!

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

On to the division races:

AL EAST

If you’re a Yankees fan, this is where you insert the “Anchorman” gif of Will Ferrell sipping a beer and … well, let’s just show it …

This became the Rays’ division in a hurry as the fellas from St. Petersburg have built a 5.5-game lead due to what I would describe as overall competence. Tampa’s offense has refused to fade, its pitching has refused to succumb to injuries and its defense has remained as solid as expected. Yes, the Yankees have had injuries. But so have the Rays. May the best team win.

And don’t forget about the Blue Jays, who are right there with the Yankees. Toronto addressed its lack of rotation depth by getting Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling and Robbie Ray, and seem keen on sticking around.

And hats off to the Orioles for making things interesting as well. They’re fun to watch again, and that is no small thing.

AL CENTRAL

Welcome to the best race in baseball, featuring the White Sox, Indians and Twins.

The Indians have the best pitching in baseball (via Fangraphs WAR) and it’s not even close. They are so pitching-rich that they traded Mike Clevinger to San Diego as if he were a spare part.

The White Sox are slugging away with an offense that is second only to the Padres, and the Twins continue to win with pitching and a whole lot of Nelson Cruz. Who knew that would be the formula? This one’s going to remain interesting to watch all the way to the end.

AL WEST

As expected, this is a battle between the Astros and Athletics. Unexpectedly, the Astros are the ones chasing.

Both of these teams are puzzles – the Astros because they didn’t address their pitching issues at the trade deadline, perhaps intent on showing they can bash their way to a title even without the aid of nefarious methods – and the A’s because it’s hard to discern what they do well beyond play defense.

Obviously defense is important, it’s just that their best hitter has been Robbie Grossman and their best pitcher has been Chris Bassitt. And they’re in first. Go figure!

Perhaps most disappointing, though, is that Mike Trout will again be watching the playoffs with the rest of us. This makes me sad.

NL EAST

This was supposed to be the deepest division in baseball. Instead, the defending champs are in last place, the Mets are (again) a disappointment, and the Phillies have become allergic to pitching.

That leaves us with the Atlanta Braves, who probably have the most talent yet seem intent on keeping this thing close. To be fair, injuries have played a role here – losing Mike Soroka was brutal – but so has simple ineffectiveness. They’re getting a Cy Young season from Max Fried and a 1.000 OPS from Marcell Ozuna – don’t let those go to waste!

Meanwhile, the Phillies are hanging around despite a mediocre offense and horrendous bullpen. Maybe those deadline acquisitions of Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, David Phelps etc. will pay off.

NL CENTRAL

The Central might be even more mediocre, if less disappointing, than the East. The Cubs been in first place since Day 1 and seem intent on staying there despite an underwhelming offense and an aging pitching staff.

At first it seemed like their big advantage was staying healthy, as the Cardinals and Brewers dealt with a COVID-19 outbreak. Since then it’s been all about a rejuvenated Yu Darvish and the 189 OPS+ of Ian Happ.

The second-place Cardinals continue to defy the odds as a division contender. In this era where power is worshiped over all else, the Cards have a slugging percentage of .387. They make up for that to some extent with the third-best OBP in baseball (.340). Their pitching, despite some nice numbers from Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson and Jack Flaherty, ranks 20^th in MLB in Fangraphs WAR.

None of these teams look like a threat to hold the trophy at the end of the season.

NL WEST

Speaking of trophies, this is the year the Dodgers end their championship drought. Right? It certainly looks that way.

There is no doubt that this is the best team on paper and has also been the best team on the field this season. The Dodgers do not have any obvious weaknesses. They rank third in hitting WAR as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and even A.J. Pollock have made up for slow starts from Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. They are also fourth in pitching WAR, and their bullpen, which has been a weakness in the past, ranks third. Of course anything can happen in a short series, as the Dodgers know all too well.

Sitting six games behind the Dodgers is perhaps the most interesting team in baseball – the San Diego Padres. The Padres aren’t going to catch the Dodgers and win the division, but they could be a real threat in the playoffs.

The Pads have the best offense in baseball and unless you are a cranky old man you have to love the joy with which Fernando Tatis Jr. plays the game. On top of this, the Padres were extremely aggressive in addressing their weaknesses at the deadline, adding Mike Clevinger to their starting rotation and a host of arms to their bullpen.

ONE LAST THING …

Let’s give a shoutout to Cal Ripken Jr. on the 25^th anniversary of his record-setting 2,131^st consecutive game played. We spoke about it a little bit on The Warehouse – Chris was in attendance that night, which is pretty cool.

But it got me to thinking – what is the most unbreakable record in baseball? Is it Cal’s? Nolan Ryan’s seven no-hitters? Cy Young’s 511 wins? Something else?

Pretty difficult to decide, I think. But I can tell you which (probably) unbreakable record is my favorite. And that is Rickey Henderson’s 1,406 stolen bases. Think about that one – you can go out and average 70 steals a year for 20 years and come up six short of the record. That’s hard to comprehend.

I once asked some base-stealer-types about this, including Peter Bourjos. Bourjos wasn’t a big base thief in the majors, but he did steal 50 once in the minors – in 121 games. He said that not only did he feel like he stole a base every time he got on, but that he was EXHAUSTED midway through the season. It’s not just the wheels that you need, you also have to be able to withstand the pounding. You have to be, essentially, a really fast tank.

Hat’s off to Rickey.