The Path To Dancing For The Terps

On Saturday at Minnesota, the University of Maryland Terrapins had their third notable road win of the year. With the win, the Terps improved to 9-7 overall, and 3-6 in Big Ten play. Despite the current limited record overall and in Conference play; a path to the NCAA Tournament still exists.

Coupled with the previous road wins at Wisconsin, and at Illinois; the addition of the win over the Golden Gophers gives MD’s resume a boost. Quality wins, and avoiding horrible losses is always key.

The other thing Maryland has going for them, is the overall strength of the Big Ten. Strong depth exists up and down in the Conference, with many pundits currently projecting the Conference to get 9 and potentially 10 bids to the NCAA Tournament. With that many quality teams, there are numerous chances at grabbing further significant wins.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Maryland has 10 games remaining on their regular season schedule:

1/27 vs. Wisconsin
2/2 vs. Purdue
2/5 @ Penn State
2/8 vs. Ohio State
2/14 vs. Minnesota
2/17 @ Nebraska
2/21 @ Rutgers
2/28 vs. Michigan State
3/3 @ Northwestern
3/7 vs. Penn State

Can the Terps go 7-3 in this stretch, and finish the regular season at 19-10 overall, and 10-9 in Big Ten play?

That level of positive consistency remains to be seen; but it’s not an impossible ask.

At 19-10 overall, and 10-9 in league play; Maryland would likely be in the bubble, and probably safely in with 1 Big Ten Tournament win.

In the current Ken Pomeroy rankings, Maryland is 42nd overall.
More importantly, in the NET rankings, Maryland is 37th overall, and compared to the rest of the bubble – in good shape with the 3 Quad 1 wins.

Wisconsin is 11th in KenPom, and 18th in the NET rankings.
Purdue is 30th in KenPom, and 30th in the NET rankings.
Penn State is 46th in KenPom, and 38th in the NET rankings.
Ohio State is 12th in KenPom, and 17th in the NET rankings.
Minnesota is 29th in KenPom, and 36th in the NET rankings.
Nebraska is 123rd in KenPom, and 159th in the NET rankings.
Rutgers is 41st in KenPom, and 48th in the NET rankings.
Michigan State is 44th in KenPom, and 84th in the NET rankings.
Northwestern is 71st in KenPom, and 76th in the NET rankings.

This illustrates the quality wins available for MD.

Can the Terps continue to improve their resume? The two games this week will go a long way either way to telling the story.

Some Quick Hits

• Eric Ayala continues to lead Maryland in scoring, at 14.4 ppg. He was excellent Saturday, with his 21 points. For the year, the Jr. has seen his minutes increase from 27.8 last year to 32.3 this season. His FG% is 48.2%, after making 35.8% of his shots last year. This is with his FG attempts increasing from 7.8 to 10.1. His 3 point attempts and % made are also up. He’s making 34.7% of his shots from 3, after his struggles outside last year.
  
  
• Donta Scott shows up each night, and his consistency is appreciated. He had 11 boards vs. the Golden Gophers. He’s scored in double figures in all but 3 of Maryland’s games. He has had 9 games with at-least 7 boards. He’s making 49% of his 3’s, on 3.6 attempts per game. The only area where we’ve seen him fall off a bit, is at the line. He made 85% from the charity stripe last year, and is down to 69% this year. More attempts, also a lot more minutes played. Maybe an issue of fatigue factoring in?

• Aaron Wiggins had 10 boards vs. Minnesota, his second conference game with as many. After making 41% of his attempts from 3 as a Freshman, that dropped to 31.7% last year, and has fallen to 30.4% this year. If MD is going to make a tournament run over these remaining 10 games, it’s hard to imagine it happening without Wiggins helping lead the way.

• Darryl Morsell continues to bring the intensity for Maryland. His teammates seem to feed off of his passion. Last year he did a better job of getting to the line and converting (making 76% of his attempts). That FT% has dropped to 50%. He made 33.3% of his attempts from 3 last year, that’s dropped to 27%. The Senior is tasked with doing a lot defensively for the Terps. I think MD is going to need him score with a bit more regularity down the stretch. Attack the basket.

• Jarius Hamilton is knocking down 41% of his 3 point attempts. I think MD is better with him on the floor. He averaged 25.8 minutes per game last year with Boston College. He’s averaging 20.4 minutes per game today. He averaged 8.4 FG attempts per game last year. That’s down to 5.5 per game with MD. On a team that has penchant for going cold for stretches per game, I think Hamilton is one of Maryland’s better offensive weapons and deserves more touches.

• Hakim Hart came into the year as a complete question mark after limited time as a Freshman. He certainly opened eyes after dropping 32 on Saint Peter’s in early December. What I’ve liked since then is that he’s 7 more games with at-least 8 points. He’s giving MD some additional scoring they need. Also, in recent games he’s being getting time at the 1, using his height as an advantage to help distribute the ball.

• It’s been fun watching James Graham get his first minutes of college action. His performance against Wingate was a glimpse of what’s to come. Let’s see if he can carve out a rotation role in these remaining 10 games.

• I’m generally pleased by how Gailin Smith has battled this year. He’s comparatively undersized against many Big Ten bigs, but he hustles and scraps. That said, in 33 combined minutes against Michigan and Minnesota he had just 1 rebound. Work the glass, and make opposing bigs have to work offensively.

• Chol Marial didn’t play against Minnesota, and had 1 minute vs. Michigan. Safe to say he’s not getting much time by design the remainder of this year. If he stays with the program, I’ll be interested to see how he looks after another off-season of development and strength training. But him moving on seems fairly likely.

• With Freshman Aquan Smart, Marcus Dockery, and Arnaud Revaz; are any of them going to step-forward and earn rotation time down the stretch? Smart has got the most time out of this group over the year, with him flashing his plus athleticism. Coach Turgeon doesn’t appear excited about finding time for any of them right now.

• As expected, the Terps have struggled with opposing bigs all year. That said, credit to Coach Turgeon and the Maryland players for their efforts in the last two games vs. Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson, and Minnesota’s Liam Robbins.